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It's a crapshoot. If US (+EU) go into a recession badly enough, there is no way the oil exporters can pick up the consumption, so China/India/Vietnam/Japan will hiccup also with some delay.
That should reduce oil consumption after some delay. As should the the current high prices.
But will it be enough to drive down the oil price (yearly average)? I don't know. My crystal ball is in the repair shop, it's been very murky lately, can't get good readings anymore.
But yes, the immediate oil price should go down to accommodate for the intra-year cycle, shouldn't it?
The yearly average I'm not so sure about.
Intra-year cycles, of course.
But, full year average price?
I do wonder what will happen, lots of above ground factors with an election year, and still some room for a NEW All Liquids peak.
And here we go.
The price of crude will never go down.
Think about getting paid in BTU's. You'd like that, huh?
Inflation would be dead forever.
When oil goes down, so will the price of beer.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens