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38 comments on The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique
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38 comments on The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique
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Excellent summary, many thanks!
The ideas, challenges and uncertainties discussed to pertain to other (European) countries as well. Esp, when we are all trade linked to each other.
What I found peculiar was (based on the summary):
1) Very little discussion of the need of infrastructure overhaul (esp. on heating) away from gas to something else (electricity, central or distributed). Is LNG seen as such a panacea that UK thinks it can keep on solving heating issues with gas for many decades to come?
2) In transport, Aviation's exclusion from the Cap & Trade system (and lack of fuel tax) was mentioned, but nothing about the sea transport, right? Sea transport is already TWICE the amount of total aviation in terms of CO2 emissions and has been forecast to almost double in the next 15-20 years. No wonder they like the idea of tanker-transported LNG now, what about in 10 years with lack of tanker capacity, extra CO2 taxes and sea transport as part of cap & trade?
3) Travel. Esp air travel. UK is travel super-power. Reduction of air travel could hit UK hard economically. So, is UK ready to back the hard decisions on this? Air travel has also been forecast to roughly double in the next 20 years. Naturally this is a problem beyond mere UK, but how do they think they are going to make light kerosene price stay so low as to allow for that, if indeed EU will finally force air travel under cap & trade AND also start taxing aviation fuel (the lack of both of these is a disgrace, btw).
Overall I think the situation reminds me of Rittel's definition of a wicked problem. Unfortunately, the speed and efficiency at which we usually solve problems like that is not very good.
Still, trying to remain optimistic, even if the challenges do not appear to be trivial either alone or combined.
The forecast expansion of UK aviation comes from the 2003 Aviation White Paper. That paper assumed three things:
I'd question all three so don't expect we'll see the expansion often talked of. Discussed on TOD here.
Do you have a link for CO2 emissions of shipping, I'd be interested to see that.
Chris,
thanks for the link. I've read the discussion and I agree on the basic premises (looks very unlikely). That was exactly the question why I asked if any challenges regarding air travel growth sustainability were brought up.
As for world shipping CO2 emissions, here are some relevant studies/summaries:
CO2 output from shipping twice as much as airlines (Guardian)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/03/travelsenvironmentalim...
Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ocean-going Ships (ICCT)
http://www.theicct.org/documents/MarineReport_Final_Web.pdf
EMISSIONS OF INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING AS SEEN BY SATELLITES
http://www.isprs.org/publications/related/ISRSE/html/papers/622.pdf
Cheers SamuM, I'd taken notes for work, so it seemed to make sense to write them up for TOD.
The only mention of heat was with regard to the falling use of sustainable heat, and the lack of any increased government funding for insulation to respond to increasing fuel poverty. Strbac mentioned the need for overhaul of the electricity grid, and the opportunities, but that was it. Heat is going to be a big challenge in the UK, as new houses don't have chimneys like the old ones do... Once we have problems getting enough gas, I imagine heat pumps will become more popular - and then we'll have a problem with electricity supply!
Regarding air transport, several speakers mentioned it being included in the EU ETS, but nobody is really talking about it being cut back, or how it will change as fuel prices rise further. You're right about sea transport - not mentioned.
I think many people regard long haul flights as a right, in the same way they do owning a private car, so it's hard for people to pluck up the courage to challenge this.
Good point about the revenue the UK gets from air travel - that's going to change!
----
Mike
One of the environmental organisations made the point about aviation being a net drain in the UK economy due to UK tourists vastly out numbering foreign tourists visiting here. UK tourist's overseas expenditure coming off the country's balance of payments.