The Oil Drum

I see the difference between dieoff and preventable deaths, but that is a difference in input/ouput numbers. Morally there is no difference between the millions starving now and the millions starving in ten/twenty/whatever years. We are allowing so many preventable deaths now I don't see that we will move decisively to prevent mass dieoffs. In spite of this, I think the dieoffs will happen more slowly than is generally predicted on this blog. We probably will pass the point of dieoff without noticing, it will be a series of "bad years" that no-one will see as the peak until after the fact. This paragraph makes me sound very pessimistic but I do feel a sense of optimism. The fact that we are doing such a terrible job now (in an age of plenty) implies that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit we can pick to soften the transition.

My best hope is that people and small communities see that it is in their best interest to have fewer children. Birth rate declines in Europe, Japan and liberal US states strongly suggest that the fertility rate of human beings would be well below replacement rate if the question was left to individuals (particularly women). Birth rates correlate much more strongly to access to birth control than to cultural factors, although they do have an effect. For example, Catholics often vocally support the anti-abortion stance of the church, but actual abortions among self-identified catholics is actually higher than the general population average where it is available.

I believe that mandatory birth-control will be ultimately counter-productive. Reproduction is an incredibly emotional issue and the existence of mandatory birth control has been used consistently to undermine and demonize legitimate reproductive rights activities. One of the excuses for reinstituting the global gag rule in 2001 was that money might go to forced abortions, an accusation completely contrary to the facts. The reality that a forced pregnancy is also traumatic and infinitely more common doesn't seem to bother these people.

Any solution to peak oil, global warming and poverty will depend on wide or universal access to contraception.