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177 comments on DrumBeat: October 11, 2007

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Leanan on October 11, 2007 - 10:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And here's what they got:

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 5, 2007

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 1.7 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 320.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are well below the lower end of the average range. Both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components rose last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased 1.4 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

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Michael on October 11, 2007 - 11:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Why are distillate inventories decreasing? Doesn't that include heating oil? Shouldn't they be building stocks this time of year?

I thought this section was interesting:

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.5 million
barrels per day, unchanged compared to the similar period last year. Over the last
four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, or 0.4
percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 4.2
million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 1.3 percent compared to the
same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 4.6 percent over the last four weeks
compared to the same four-week period last year.

Gasoline and Jet fuel demand down from last year.

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PeakTO on October 11, 2007 - 3:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My thoughts exactly.

Crude down as well!

Gasoline desperately needed a boost, maybe they diverted some production?

However, Distillates are very low over last year - 13.2 MILLION barrels lower than last year. 3.14 production days less.

And propane, which had a small build, is still 10.7 Million barrels lower than 2006.

UP this week to 74 Million barrels less petroleum stock than 2006, in the US. (Approx. 35 VLCC tankers worth)

Yeah right, it's speculators. (sorry carryover from previous posts - baggage)

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westexas on October 11, 2007 - 11:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There was an almost palpable sense of panic among the talking heads on CNBC this morning regarding the oil market. One of the talking heads said something along the following lines:

Proposed reasons for high oil prices range from increasing demand worldwide to geopolitical concerns. (Let's see, what's missing from this list?)

They then went on to propose a third reason. (Declining export capacity perhaps? Nope.)

They blamed high oil prices on the DOE's ongoing efforts to replenish the SPR. (Anything but declining oil exports.)

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Jussi on October 11, 2007 - 12:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It gets a bit frustrating. Apparently Schlesinger, of all people, told the ASPO crowd in Cork that "we are all peakists now", and there are certainly signs that smart people are increasingly seeing how the writing's on the wall. Yet I find that the business press goes to unbelievable lengths to deny what is so obvious to most of us. Similarly, we hear more or less upbeat assessments of the economy, while there is little to indicate that things might NOT be horribly wrong in more than a few ways.

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xeroid on October 11, 2007 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Any MSM organisation that needs to make a profit is only going to tell good news to the end user who will ultimately actually pay for the service. MSM need repeat business or they fail.

Don't blame MSM, they know their market - the punters don't want to know about anything bad - nobody makes a living selling things people don't want, it's as simple as that.

The MSM only give 'bad' news that has happened, not bad news about things that 'may' happen in the future - if you expect more, sadly, I fear you will be disapointed.

The reality of the way MSM operates is very bad news for any mitigation of peak oil, AGW etc.

Politicians are from the same mold, they only ever react to things that everybody can see and that they can't deny ... even then, they are way too slow if we did actually have a peak in 2005, as seems likely.

Xeroid.

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cuchulainn on October 11, 2007 - 4:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was talking to a friend of mine who is a *very* high-level consultant to one of the oil supermajors. He told me that a recent strategy meeting someone brought up the idea of peak oil. The consensus of the room was apparently "yup, this is pretty much happening now or soon". I said to him - "Didn't anybody say 'Don't worry, we can increase recovery factors' or 'Don't worry Saudi will pump lots more'?" His answer - no. I was staggered that there didn't seem to have been any serious resistance to an idea that the oil majors will just not countenance in public.

Cuchulainn

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jokuhl on October 11, 2007 - 8:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Job requirements; Must have good, 'Front-Office' appearance. (read, Poker-face)

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Jussi on October 12, 2007 - 12:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yeah, it seems that by now honest people admit it, no matter how annoying it may be. So what the f*** is wrong with the business press??

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redcoltken on October 12, 2007 - 9:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

all you have to do is read the papers after 1929 market crash - that say the same things back then that MSM would say now......its a memorized prayer not a rational discussion

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Leanan on October 11, 2007 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oil jumps nearly $3 as supplies fall

Oil prices jumped nearly $3 a barrel Thursday following a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, a strike at Chevron's operations in Nigeria, and a fire at BP's Alaska oil field.

U.S. light crude for November delivery rose $2.77 to $83.03 a barrel. Oil had traded up $2 just prior to the release of the U.S. government's inventory report.

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gernos on October 11, 2007 - 1:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This article gives the lowdown on why the market has reacted with such a steep hike:

http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/News.php?NewsID=317172

Are we headed for an another all-time WTI high today ?

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NASAguy on October 11, 2007 - 3:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Leanan,

When did you see this weekly EIA report? I thought they came out at 10:30 EDT, but it looks like you posted it before then. The time tag on my computer says 9:26 (CDT).

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Cedar on October 11, 2007 - 3:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Test

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Cedar on October 11, 2007 - 3:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

TOD seems to be about 5 mins slow

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Leanan on October 11, 2007 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Pay no attention to the time stamps on the posts. The server clock is wrong.

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R W Reactionary on October 11, 2007 - 5:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

OK, but what about the man behind the curtain with his hands on the levers? [A new conspiracy theory in the making?] :<)

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Twilight on October 11, 2007 - 3:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It looks like 1.7M barrels have been made into gasoline, but not heating oil. Gasoline prices are down. Is it simply that they have elected to continue producing gasoline, instead of switching to more heating oil, otherwise the price of gasoline might rise? Of course this is a conspiracy theory, but it is also a simple explanation for what it looks like.

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Dragonfly41 on October 11, 2007 - 3:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well...if temps stay high...this might be a safe bet. It is however turning colder now across the country. It may have been a bad decision. As usual, time will tell.

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177 comments on DrumBeat: October 11, 2007

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