79 comments on The Finance Round-Up: October 12th 2007
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79 comments on The Finance Round-Up: October 12th 2007
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Thanks for an excellent round-up Stoneleigh.
The financial crisis seems to be the leading wave of the coming turmoil. Where the unsustainability of the
'sustainable' growth world model first becomes undeniable. I have my family's ongoing interests as my primary concern, we are hopefully protected from the worst elements of exposure to the fall-out from these financial bombs. However I wonder if you have any thoughts on the timing and likely triggers of crashes, bank runs, and other discontinuites to be wary of. I'm thinking of the ARM reset profile, forced mark to market of bank 'assets', end of year statements etc.
Thanks
Records
Debt as we see it today has no real precedent, particularly its reach into the lower classes. The inability of people to live within their means is unprecedented, and does not necessarily reflect economic stagnation. It simply is not true that the problem is solely associated with the gap between rich and poor. The dubious statistics show the gap 'widening' since say 2000 or widest in the past 25 years. The yawning gap of the early 20th century and before to the dawn of human history is the better measure. The developed world is the most egalitarian ever, and the ability for the poor to secure debt is one more example.
The problem is that people have an almost pathalogical need to consume what they have and more. There is no restraint. When someone spends everything they have no matter what the sum, the problem is not 'solvable' systemically or institutionally.
Given my belief that peak oil, and indeed peak everything is around the corner. This problem will be the cornerstone of our getting through this. In eras past, additional wealth simply added to the population and kept living at marginal sustainable levels. The Malthusian Trap. Today it is debt that keeps living at marginal levels, despite rising wages, greater egalitarianism. People put THEMSELVES into a debt from which they cannot escape. Debts are their children now. Rather than breeding into powerty, people today borrow themselves into it.
Gotta love this solution to the oil crisis. Hey and BTW seems that most Americans are carrying their own weight in black gold. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article1559489.ece