Definitely some good shipping lanes up North in the "After" scenario :-)

Apples ...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/19781026.png

to Apples:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20071012.jpg

Almost as visually impressive and no winter vs. summer controversy - the images are twenty nine years apart but at roughly the same time of the year.

Hello CEOJr1963

I'm no Christian and I don't believe in a God or Santa Clause and I also don't feel the need to profess by beliefs or non beliefs in every post I make.
Would you be offended if I proclaimed in every post that there was no God?

Apart from that I recognize that you are a sincere, good and righteous person and I admire you for understanding their plight and willingness to help the less fortunate when the affects of PO and GW become entrenched.

What does offend me though are those who have their acres and bunkers in the hills, with food stored for years and continually push entirely unrealistic options for the survival of everyone, they even tell us how they will defend their property but complain about the price of bullets.

They argue electric cars, solar panels on every roof and wind mills by the millions will save the day, logistics is never mentioned or considered. They tell us what they have, and what they have achieved, inferring how smart they are. They tell us what can be done but never, never tell us how it will happen.

They are truly representative of the overall psychopathic human race, their creed is FYJ and they live by it.

A bunker mentality will not save many. Community cooperation is the only defence against a world of scarce energy and food. Not that I think enough cooperation will eventuate, I just hope it will.

Enough of a rant for one day.

... the study from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors shows that some of the measures, such as solar panels to heat water, would cost £5,000 to install but reduce average bills by only £24 a year and would take about 208 years to pay back.

The RICS data shows that putting in all eight measures, including insulation, condenser boilers and double glazing, would cost £23,547. This would knock only £486 off fuel bills and would take 48 years to recoup.

I had one immediate reaction when reading this: the Chartered Surveyors live in a parallel universe which differs from mine on 3 main points:

1. There is no inflation
2. Energy prices don't rise (i.e. not faster than inflation)
3. There will be no energy shortages

Now, the last two points can be forgiven, what could they know? But assuming zero inflation reeks of something a smitten less than good faith.

The first example is so absurd, we'll leave that alone. Looks like such an insane use of solar panels that somewhat lower taxes would be useless.

At 3% inflation, prices double every 23 years. So in the second example, which mentions a 48 years recoup period, savings, in the last years, would be over 4 times the £486 quoted. I don't want to do all the calcs (they should have though), but the recoup would take about 20 years instead of 48, I'd guesstimate.

In the real world, of course, we will see sharply higher energy prices (rising faster than inflation) even within the next 20 years, and the UK will see severe shortages. Solar panels, double glazing, all of these, can be expected to get more expensive too.

The only thing that would make true sense for a country like the UK (if not all countries) is to lower the sales tax to 0%, and provide loans to homeowners at the same 0%. If energy prices rise at double inflation, 6%, for a doubling every 11.6 years, it would be by far the best investment a government could ever hope to make. And the sooner the better!

Instead, the UK government pushes for more nuclear projects. And that may well be why we'll never see them do what makes more sense. Even though the projected costs for clean-up of older nuclear is now projected at between £73-100 billion, another 16% more than last year's projection, before it's even started. Government equals industry, politics equals economics.

Using less energy is an enormous threat to our economic system, and we'll have to break through the resistance inherent in the system. Down the line, less energy means less growth potential, and without growth the system dies.

In any case, the Chartered Surveyors should not issue these silly reports.

There's a difference between money spent for entertainment and money spent as an investment.

Indeed, I have occasionally thought that there should be another metric, EROEW - Energy Return on Energy Wasted. This could be a fruitful concept, since by any reasonable measure MOST of the energy being used by the human race is currently 'wasted' in order to stimulate human brains in unnecessary ways.

Under EROEW, you could have quite positive results even with terrible EROEI.

It's stupid but true. Most 'energy' and 'environment' projects these days actually fall more under EROEW than anything else.

The right clothes can mean the difference between getting a promotion or not at IBM. She has to decide if she can fit in with their culture or not. And whether she wants to be promoted. Success just means more 60 hour workweeks and four marriages.

There's lots of places an engineer can work Christmas eve in jeans and a t-shirt. IBM isn't one of them.

RobertInTucson

I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

Here is a fresh idea for Wind power. Very interesting concept, if it works? Easy enough to build to. Scalability on a small scale looks easy for light loads.

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Humdinger_Windbelt#Official_Website

Claims to have better efficiency that a turbine.

Nate,

I don't want to detract from whatever you plan on writing but since you said, "If we had 6 billion 'realists' all at once, it might not be too fun..." and I've used "Todd; a Realist" as a tag line off and on, how might things change if everyone lived like me? People should keep in mind that I live on a mountaintop in the boondocks.

-- No tourist industry: I don't take vacations. Haven't had one for over 30 years. I like it where I am.

-- No restaurant industry: I don't eat out although I have have a hamburger at the snack shack every month or so when I go to the dump/recycle stuff.

-- No TV or radio: We stopped getting TV some years ago and I only listen to the radio if I'm driving (which isn't much)

-- No movies theaters: I've been to a movie theater once in the last 25 years.

-- No fashion industry: I live in jeans and work boots. My newest suit is 35 years old and my dress shoes are equally old. They'll last the rest of my life since I only wear them at funerals or so it seems. I come in and out of "fashion."

-- No auto industry: I keep vehicles forever. I only got rid of my 45 year old PU a few years ago. It's replacement is now 20 years old and our spare car is 23 years old. I do have to admit my wife got a new used car but her trade-in was 15 years old.

-- No prepared foods: Home cooking is where it's at.

-- Lots of energy efficiency stuff: I've covered this before so I'll skip it here.

The list goes on. However, on a serious note, huge segments of business would die resulting in massive unemployment were everyone to become a "realist" like me. It would be especially bad since most people don't have usable skills sets nor have the natural resources I have. It's hard for me to see 6-8 houses jammed into my garden and orchard in the city. I don't think twice about going out and felling trees for firewood, I have thousands of trees.

Ah, well.

Todd: a Realist

Well we've got over 4 billion realists right now.

Making less than $8 per day.

They can't afford not to be.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Hi Nate,

I'm putting my Q here, because I'd like to see yr. answer, though its about what Leanan says below re: efficiency. (As well as the entire discussion.)

She's speaking kind of generally, though...still, when talking about "us" doing things "more efficiently", WRT, say, goods manufactured in China and sold in the US - where does the "efficiency" come into it, exactly?

In other words, it seems one way "efficiency" operates in a corporate manufacturing realm, for eg., is to seek a lower price of labor. So my question is: doesn't this increased "efficiency" really show up - at least to some extent (some percentage) - as increased profit?

In other words, "more efficient" - for whom? (WRT whom?)

It doesn't *necessarily* translate into less energy/labor on the side of the consumer, so not the most efficient use of the consumer's dollar, necessarily - is it?

This must tie into the comparison of oil price in USD as percentage of US income that someone pointed out the other day.

And, just as an aside: re: "If we had 6 billion 'realists' all at once, it might not be too fun..."

It depends, huh? What are you envisioning when you say this?

Some people think we should shut up about peak oil and jump on the global warming bandwagon. Many of the goals are the same, and global warming is "sexy" these days.

But I think it's the opposite. We should raise the alarm about peak oil, and hope that takes care of global warming, too. People won't do things like install insulation to fix global warming. It's too expensive, and the perceived benefit too low. And it doesn't work unless a lot of people do it.

Installing insulation because soon energy will be far more expensive - due to scarcity, not due to taxes - is a different thing altogether. Then it benefits the person who lays out the money fairly soon, and even if they sell, their house may be worth more. IMO, energy scarcity is more likely to motivate people than climate change.

SCT, just doing a little work, not posting until in the evening, and on technical threads. I think you doomers are getting too worked up right now, but its a free country this week. ASPO's next week in Houston, only 50 miles up the road. I'm really looking forward to being able to put faces on the names around here.
Bob Ebersole

I’ve actually done rigid foam insulation under drywall in some situations. Unless you are doing the labor yourself it is not worth the cost/benefit for the r value received. Balloon framed buildings are against code, and have been in Chicago for some time. The majority are older type brick structures. Blowing in insulation is unfeasible given the space between the plaster and lath and brick exterior, usually one inch, and the insulation won’t get by the fire blocks. And if not installed properly upgrades are not worth the effort. The competency of most carpenters, especially the ones hired by run of the mill outfits, has really declined over the years. You’re more likely to have Homer Simpson installing your windows than a master carpenter with knowledge of insulation techniques. As far as public assistance just look at the republican’s resistance to child health care for people in the middle income bracket. And the money for this public assistance is coming where? Most populous states are floundering financially. Who’s taxes will be raised? I personally believe that the members of TOD, many who are technical/professional types who do not work in the trenches, don’t even begin to understand the scale of the problem presented by old existing infrastructure and personal finance. It is all about scalability and logistics.

First I think it would be cost effective to do some simple tests on your house to identify the worst problems. In my opinion I would do a test to check for drafts and for heat loss through walls and ceilings.

The draft test can be done by someone else or you can do it yourself (as the infra red). Close all windows etc and seal off the house from the outside (vents etc too.) Use a outside door like the front. Put a good size fan in the opening and use plastic etc to seal off the rest or the door. Turn on fan and let it lower the pressure in the house. Then walk around to exterior windows, doors and other locations that open and close to the outside. USe a smoke stick or similar.

Rent or have a professional use an infra red camera to look for places in walls, ceilings where cold air is seeping in through the attic insulation and other construction defects (even in NEW houses) that allow cold air to penetrate throughout the house.

The infra red will be a big help in locating what could be some major causes of cold air seeping into walls and ceilings. These fixes may not cost very much. Around the outside wall area where the roof and the wall meet there may be places that are OPEN ports for cold air to find a way into the house. covering that hole and adding insulation is cheap and all of this can be done as a DIY with some basic knowledge of construction. For instance an interior wall could have cold air leaking into because insulation is missing in a spot in the attic, and its possible that that wall where it connects into the ceiling could be sealed and insulation on top. Insulation does not stop "wind" is my understanding and drafts can form a good flow, just cuts through the insulation and cold air flows through its openings. Having just insulation on top of the opening where a wall meets the attic does not stop wind. That opening if sealed (plywood etc) and then put the insulation down. Major cause of heat loss gone. The infra red will easily show you where cold air is coming in.

There are businesses now starting that come to your house and do this for a fee. But really if you can rent the camera and look for the spots, thats simple. Understanding how to find the place and seal the leak, thats another matter, but if you have done basic framing, build a room etc., might be a weekend project with some major savings.

The most important point from this is lets build them right in the first place. Airtight construction, high thermal mass and heat recovery ventilation. Then you can keep it warm just by being in it. Course passive solar heating and heat pumps are a good plan. Dont forget most of your heat is lost throught your head, wearing a hat could be the best investment in energy efficiency.