The interesting thing to look at is how the main depressive shock started in the 1970s and then slowed down into the 1990's. For this model to truly make sense, people should buy into the fact that significant changes in oil usage occurred spanning the two decades. Clearly, up to the 1970s, consumers used oil like it was water, applying it to all sorts of what we would consider now incredibly wasteful actions. But then the conservation movement woke up, and the USA subconsciously lead the way when they realized their own supply was petering out. So the key is to buy into the possibility of that 40% dip in extraction rate from the available reserves over two decades.

I don't think NYMEX believes the EIA:

$88.50

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens