"Surely the effects of Climate Change, floods/droughts and changing water availability is going to have (ing) a noticable impact on food production "

Don't think about this too much unless you want to don't want to sleep.

Some folks have been under the illusion that we can simply grow our temperate crops farther north as a result of global warming. For example, the papers are filled with stories about Vineyards in Ontario and England with the suggestion that Swedish Wines are next. There is a little problem with assuming that you can grow any crop when the temperature and water regieme is right. It assumes that the soil quality is the same.

And it's not.

Our last Glaciation period ended 10,000 years ago. One American benefit of the glaciers is that they pushed all of Canada's nice top soil into the upper Midwest, Plains States, Mid Atlantic states, and the Columbia River Valley. Canada wasn't left with much. If you try and grow crops north of say Lake Superior, you hit bedrock a few inches down. That's why farming never took root north of Lake Superior. It's cold and the soil is really thin. So the soil in the northern latitudes may not be very good for growing large quantities of cereals, vegetables and other things.

The second problem is that the soil in northern climes post glaciation that has been built up is from falling pine needles. This is called Podsol or spodsol. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spodosol
The needles don't breakdown nicely like decidous leaves do into a rich organic loam. Combined with the fact that conifers in general don't drop their needles, the ground stays cold and dark all year round. Thus, they don't decay quickly and they have the potential to preserve things with their tannins. Where do you think bogs come from? The point is the soil is really crappy and you need to put lots of fertilizers (phosphate, nitrogen, iron, calcium) to grow anything on it.

So, in conclusion, as the climate heats up, it will push the deserts in the Horse latitudes (30 degrees to 35 degrees) north and south. In Europe, this will push the mediterranean climate north and the temperate climate north into the poor soils. This has the potential to reduce agricultural production significantly.

Sleep tight.

Charles