Sorry to be hogging this but i really had to post this.
Emailed Joe Kernen this morning who kept blaming speculators. Really had to vent.
Here was my email to him

To Joe Moronic Kernen,

Please wake up to the reality of peak oil. Stop blaming speculators. You
are misleading your viewers. Here are some f***ing facts you and your
band of merry idiots can check out.

1) The world will use 88 million barrels per day (mbpd)in the 4th
quarter and produce only 84.5 mbpd. Did they teach you demand and supply
at MIT or did you get a degree in brain farts?

2) the total oil controlled by the net long position of speculators can
be found at cftc.gov and is less than a couple of days of world usage at
best. And because it is a commodity it is matched by a net short
position by commericals. If those words challenge your chimp vocabulary
I suggest you take time to acquaint yourself with them.

3)In days of coverage the world oil inventories are at the lowest level
in the last 15 years.

How can you have exposure to the wisdom of Matt Simmons and still
display that high level of completely unjustified arrogance? Your
flippant dealing of the most important issue facing mankind will have
your going down as the Typhoid Mary of this optimistic disease of
wishing upon a star.
Hey you ask Boone pickens for predictions right? Here are a few for you
in his style.

$150 before $200 a barrel
$250 before $500 a barrel
Joe kernen being declared a moron before being declared a complete
idiot.
Hows that?

Here was his reply.

I'll bet you're an academic

Rarely do we get mail from such a pompous blowhard... but when we do
it's usually

from someone that couldn't get a real job

and finally mine back to him
You figured that all by yourself seeing my @edu address or did your co chimps help you?
Dispute one fact written below Joe I dare you.
As for a real job I have an MD and I am working on my PhD.
I truly regret not getting a "real" job like yours but they werent handing our free lobectomies anymore.

LOL

bang bang!

did the shooting already started?

he replied
Ahhh an md!! That’s where the pompousity comes in… also

well known on wall street as the worst investors.. combined with the biggest ego!…

God complex I guess

I’ve seen this movie before.. let me guess.. are you even 30? To

be so sure of things… that passes with age

Next recession oil goes back to 35… hopefully with you’re phd you’ll

stay in the lab and not use your great people skills on actual patient

And my reply,
As expected you did not dispute a single fact posted.
I would send you my tax returns if want to see how much I made in investing but that would be beside the point.
Sure oil will go down in a recession, but from what point? You have had Steve Forbes saying " Oil will go down to $15...little later oil will go down to $20 and now he says $45." His "down" point is higher than what oil was when he started his stupid predictions. The point is not the price , the point is that peak production has been reached. GDP cannot grow without increasing oil consumption. Prices may go down to $60 or $65 but you are hallucinating if you are thinking about $35. World GDP will have to contract by 2-3% to align supply and demand in 2008.

I'll tell you what how about a public bet?
Prices in 2010 ? If it is less than $150 you win. If it is more than $150 I win.

And BTW you are proving my point. You could not invalidate a single point I made and went after my profession. Come on Joe . Show that there is a neuron still hanging on there with its last breath. Dispute the facts.

We're always "adjusting for inflation".

How about adjusting for deflation.

Because if oil drops to $45, a bottle of beer will cost a quarter.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Sure. That ave family health insurance bill of 12 grand is going to drop to 3 grand any day now.

highly Unlikely as I am sure you implied but deflation is possible in such a high debt laden economy. Unlikely poltically but possible.

Fire: You cannot have deflation in all sectors of the economy as many sectors are not competitive (free market). Will surgeons currently charging $600 thou drop their price to $200 thou? Are insurance companies planning to slash rates? Is Goldman planning to slash their fees by 2/3 is some looming price war for business? How likely is is that your local government is planning to slash your property tax mill rate by 2/3 in some sort of "deflationary" environment? More likely that as property values fall, they will increase the mill rate to hold their revenue together. For all the free market BS, huge portions of the USA economy are anything but which makes deflation more difficult to achieve.

Again you illustrate beautifully deflation's affect.

How about a definition of deflation.

"Money disappears faster than it can be created."

See Housing Price Collapse $1.2 Trillion
and $45 Trillion in SIV Derivatives for details.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

I agree. Totally unlikely but I still maintain its possible. If we had someone at the fed acknowledge that inflation was running at 7% and he raised interest rates to 12% we would wipe out a lot of wealth to the point where surgeons and insurance companies will have to lower prices. Maybe not as much as your example but they would have to lower rates.

Surgeons very well could slash their fees by 2/3rds if all of a sudden no one has the money for surgery.

I would say it's very unlikely, but possible.

Garth

GGG: Both Hillary and the musclehead leading California have proposed taxpayers funding health insurance for those who cannot afford it-so you are right, it is very unlikely.

Health Care will increase, just like Oil Discovery/Production.

That doesn't preclude deflation.

Like oil (just like oil AAMOF) the poorest will drop out.

And an ever smaller circle will contain the last of the Empire's Citizens/EC.

How do you know if you've made the cut and are still
an EC?

You can afford Health Care/Insurance.

Asimov's Foundation keeps intruding/coming to mind here. ;}

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Asimov's Foundation keeps intruding/coming to mind here. ;}

Doesn't it? :)

Sounds like I'd better find Asimov's Foundation and read it.

Around here, the retired ppl have health insurance etc., but anyone under 50, fuhgeddabouddit.

As for car insurance etc. I'll just state that in this land of plentiful goathead weeds, lethal to bike tires and even thin car tires, there are an awful lot of people biking on old beaters, walking, and hitchhiking.

The basic trappings of being an Empire Citizen, such as car ownership, house ownership, health care, dental care, even in many cases adequate nutrition, are only enjoyed by a smaller and smaller group, and most of that group old and obtained those trappings 20 or more years ago and have been coasting ever since.

Read the Original Foundation book - then one written in the 1940's

i know

i have been thinking this for some time - those books i read so long ago but were so memorable for me... it's funny going back and seeing how simplistic and unsophisticated Asimov's writing style is (you don't notice that reading them in early teens) yet how rich and prescient his ideas are

i certainly think a smart lifeboat strategy based on a Foundation approach is going to be the end result - either planned or not... it won't be two either - it'll be a whole bunch of them... but a set of common rules and principles will align lifeboats loosely for a post fall world...

but i don't think it is just waiting out the die off - it is also waiting out the hunker down with guns hoarding brigade... the Bush to Paraguay lot - they'll survive a while in an unsustainable way by hoarding lots and running small manageable fascist-run enclaves... but ultimately they'll run out of hoards and stockpiles... all the time fantasizing about how they are surviving with enough guns to take over the world again
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

Given all this talk about Foundation I've not read them in maybe twenty five years, so I walked to the local library. No Foundation, but Prelude to Foundation was there, so I've started ...

prelude to foundation is like Star Wars episodes i-iii i.e. written after the original

but definitely read them - the core three books are the best and the original story arc, but there is then a periphery of additional foundation books that are secondary
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

Hello Fleam,

Suggestion: I think your time could be better spent by using an advanced google search of my numerous Foundation postings of predictive collapse and directed decline for optimal paradigm shifting. Use TheOilDrum.com as a limiting website constraint. For broader search strategies, if you analyze the found text with a Peak Everything mindset: there are also excellent web summaries of Asimov's Foundation and Wikilinks to help quickly ramp up your understanding of optimal decline.

I am certainly not an expert on this subject, but I hope TODers can really help add more expertise and analysis over time. Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster to further flog the data-dog.....

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Bob,

You're back! I tried to email you but it bounced back. I thought maybe Dick Cheney had dispatched a UAV predator drone to your neck of Asphaltistan.

Hello The Chimp Who Can Drive,

Yep--Just got my old computer and big screen resusitated back onto the WWW. I was tired of borrowing someone else's laptop and connection because the dinky screen was a PITA to read.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

"Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster..."

Bob, IMHO this site is the biocomputer from "Hitchhiker's Guide"; you're participating in reaching the conclusions.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

Yup - I wonder if we have a Salvor Hardin busy being born right now....

Good point. Like steve forbes always keeps saying that the fed needs to get Gold under $400. If they did that NAsdaq would be below a 1000.

Deleted

Well, at least you were polite... ;^)

I've met more than one doctor whose idea of a business letter starts like this:

Dear Mr. So and So:

You damned son of a bitch. Strongly worded letter to follow.