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279 comments on DrumBeat: October 16, 2007

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fireangel on October 16, 2007 - 10:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

he replied
Ahhh an md!! That’s where the pompousity comes in… also

well known on wall street as the worst investors.. combined with the biggest ego!…

God complex I guess

I’ve seen this movie before.. let me guess.. are you even 30? To

be so sure of things… that passes with age

Next recession oil goes back to 35… hopefully with you’re phd you’ll

stay in the lab and not use your great people skills on actual patient

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fireangel on October 16, 2007 - 10:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And my reply,
As expected you did not dispute a single fact posted.
I would send you my tax returns if want to see how much I made in investing but that would be beside the point.
Sure oil will go down in a recession, but from what point? You have had Steve Forbes saying " Oil will go down to $15...little later oil will go down to $20 and now he says $45." His "down" point is higher than what oil was when he started his stupid predictions. The point is not the price , the point is that peak production has been reached. GDP cannot grow without increasing oil consumption. Prices may go down to $60 or $65 but you are hallucinating if you are thinking about $35. World GDP will have to contract by 2-3% to align supply and demand in 2008.

I'll tell you what how about a public bet?
Prices in 2010 ? If it is less than $150 you win. If it is more than $150 I win.

And BTW you are proving my point. You could not invalidate a single point I made and went after my profession. Come on Joe . Show that there is a neuron still hanging on there with its last breath. Dispute the facts.

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mcgowanmc on October 16, 2007 - 10:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We're always "adjusting for inflation".

How about adjusting for deflation.

Because if oil drops to $45, a bottle of beer will cost a quarter.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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BrianT on October 16, 2007 - 10:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sure. That ave family health insurance bill of 12 grand is going to drop to 3 grand any day now.

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fireangel on October 16, 2007 - 10:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

highly Unlikely as I am sure you implied but deflation is possible in such a high debt laden economy. Unlikely poltically but possible.

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BrianT on October 16, 2007 - 10:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Fire: You cannot have deflation in all sectors of the economy as many sectors are not competitive (free market). Will surgeons currently charging $600 thou drop their price to $200 thou? Are insurance companies planning to slash rates? Is Goldman planning to slash their fees by 2/3 is some looming price war for business? How likely is is that your local government is planning to slash your property tax mill rate by 2/3 in some sort of "deflationary" environment? More likely that as property values fall, they will increase the mill rate to hold their revenue together. For all the free market BS, huge portions of the USA economy are anything but which makes deflation more difficult to achieve.

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mcgowanmc on October 16, 2007 - 10:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Again you illustrate beautifully deflation's affect.

How about a definition of deflation.

"Money disappears faster than it can be created."

See Housing Price Collapse $1.2 Trillion
and $45 Trillion in SIV Derivatives for details.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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fireangel on October 16, 2007 - 11:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree. Totally unlikely but I still maintain its possible. If we had someone at the fed acknowledge that inflation was running at 7% and he raised interest rates to 12% we would wipe out a lot of wealth to the point where surgeons and insurance companies will have to lower prices. Maybe not as much as your example but they would have to lower rates.

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ggg71 on October 16, 2007 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Surgeons very well could slash their fees by 2/3rds if all of a sudden no one has the money for surgery.

I would say it's very unlikely, but possible.

Garth

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BrianT on October 16, 2007 - 12:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

GGG: Both Hillary and the musclehead leading California have proposed taxpayers funding health insurance for those who cannot afford it-so you are right, it is very unlikely.

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mcgowanmc on October 16, 2007 - 10:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Health Care will increase, just like Oil Discovery/Production.

That doesn't preclude deflation.

Like oil (just like oil AAMOF) the poorest will drop out.

And an ever smaller circle will contain the last of the Empire's Citizens/EC.

How do you know if you've made the cut and are still
an EC?

You can afford Health Care/Insurance.

Asimov's Foundation keeps intruding/coming to mind here. ;}

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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luisdias on October 16, 2007 - 12:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Asimov's Foundation keeps intruding/coming to mind here. ;}

Doesn't it? :)

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fleam on October 16, 2007 - 1:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sounds like I'd better find Asimov's Foundation and read it.

Around here, the retired ppl have health insurance etc., but anyone under 50, fuhgeddabouddit.

As for car insurance etc. I'll just state that in this land of plentiful goathead weeds, lethal to bike tires and even thin car tires, there are an awful lot of people biking on old beaters, walking, and hitchhiking.

The basic trappings of being an Empire Citizen, such as car ownership, house ownership, health care, dental care, even in many cases adequate nutrition, are only enjoyed by a smaller and smaller group, and most of that group old and obtained those trappings 20 or more years ago and have been coasting ever since.

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redcoltken on October 16, 2007 - 2:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Read the Original Foundation book - then one written in the 1940's

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ResponsibleAccountable on October 16, 2007 - 2:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

i know

i have been thinking this for some time - those books i read so long ago but were so memorable for me... it's funny going back and seeing how simplistic and unsophisticated Asimov's writing style is (you don't notice that reading them in early teens) yet how rich and prescient his ideas are

i certainly think a smart lifeboat strategy based on a Foundation approach is going to be the end result - either planned or not... it won't be two either - it'll be a whole bunch of them... but a set of common rules and principles will align lifeboats loosely for a post fall world...

but i don't think it is just waiting out the die off - it is also waiting out the hunker down with guns hoarding brigade... the Bush to Paraguay lot - they'll survive a while in an unsustainable way by hoarding lots and running small manageable fascist-run enclaves... but ultimately they'll run out of hoards and stockpiles... all the time fantasizing about how they are surviving with enough guns to take over the world again
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

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SacredCowTipper on October 16, 2007 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Given all this talk about Foundation I've not read them in maybe twenty five years, so I walked to the local library. No Foundation, but Prelude to Foundation was there, so I've started ...

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ResponsibleAccountable on October 16, 2007 - 3:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

prelude to foundation is like Star Wars episodes i-iii i.e. written after the original

but definitely read them - the core three books are the best and the original story arc, but there is then a periphery of additional foundation books that are secondary
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

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totoneila on October 16, 2007 - 2:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello Fleam,

Suggestion: I think your time could be better spent by using an advanced google search of my numerous Foundation postings of predictive collapse and directed decline for optimal paradigm shifting. Use TheOilDrum.com as a limiting website constraint. For broader search strategies, if you analyze the found text with a Peak Everything mindset: there are also excellent web summaries of Asimov's Foundation and Wikilinks to help quickly ramp up your understanding of optimal decline.

I am certainly not an expert on this subject, but I hope TODers can really help add more expertise and analysis over time. Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster to further flog the data-dog.....

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on October 16, 2007 - 4:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Bob,

You're back! I tried to email you but it bounced back. I thought maybe Dick Cheney had dispatched a UAV predator drone to your neck of Asphaltistan.

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totoneila on October 16, 2007 - 4:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello The Chimp Who Can Drive,

Yep--Just got my old computer and big screen resusitated back onto the WWW. I was tired of borrowing someone else's laptop and connection because the dinky screen was a PITA to read.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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notintodenial on October 16, 2007 - 8:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster..."

Bob, IMHO this site is the biocomputer from "Hitchhiker's Guide"; you're participating in reaching the conclusions.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

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redcoltken on October 16, 2007 - 2:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yup - I wonder if we have a Salvor Hardin busy being born right now....

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fireangel on October 16, 2007 - 10:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Good point. Like steve forbes always keeps saying that the fed needs to get Gold under $400. If they did that NAsdaq would be below a 1000.

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Twilight on October 16, 2007 - 10:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Deleted

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279 comments on DrumBeat: October 16, 2007

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