Thanks Ace !

Yes 1997 for KSA makes sense according to what I'm saying.
And I believe the numbers your presenting from my technical discount concept. They may be a little bit high 10-30GB but
KSA is a bit problematic since a lot of fields where developed late but on the other hand when developed more advanced technology was used since they where developed later. So the numbers your presenting are close to slightly high. My estimate is I feel a good guess at the minimum.
This leaves about 30GB that needs accounted for. I think a lot of these are still ghost barrels.

The key point is no method presented to date as adequately discounted our advances in technology allowing increased extraction rate. Using a known period when reserves did not change much but technology was applied i.e the infamous dogleg indicates that the technology effect may account for 50% of the increase in production rate. The reverse is we are depleting the oil supply 50% faster today then we where say 30 years ago.

HL is actually measuring two entangled effects. Technical advances and actual depletion. The relentless technical advances hide a significant amount of depletion as we have gotten better and better at keeping the oil production high.
HL gets the peak date right but it can be off by as much as 50% on the URR estimate to the high side.

For primary and secondary recovery MRC or Christmas Tree wells aka super straws represent a maximum extraction method we really cannot do much better. The current peak is then actually a maximum in our ability to reasonably apply technology to maintain and increase extraction rates. The world peak i.e 50% of URR is in the past I'd guess we hit 50% of global URR in 2001-2002.

Thanks for the numbers Ace and I really think people should seriously consider this argument. On of its strengths is it answers the people that claim technology will save us.

It already has.