Agreed, the underlying supply crunch could drive oil prices to $US100/barrel this winter and to $US150/barrel by the end of 2010. Please refer to Fig 1 of http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064

I too was a little confused by your comment above.

USD Index has moved 1.2% in the last 7 days...big deal. Crude on the other hand.

But, you are correct it will aggravate the price moves.

With NYMEX above 90 in after hours, and as I posted in the drumbeat.

We could be less than 2 weeks from $100 dollars on supply, USD weakness and global tensions.

If the FED reduces rates OCT 31st, we could be looking at a larger than average fall in the USD$, and a corresponding jump in commodity prices.