"The End As I Know It" (fiction book review)

Just finished a newly published book called http://www.randomhouse.com/knopf/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780307276728 ">The End As I Know It by http://www.kshay.com/teaiki/ ">Kevin Shay
It is set in 1998 and is about a guy who stumbles across Y2K info, becomes convinced that it will be TEOTWAWKI, and sets out on a road trip to alert his family and friends. The book has great perspectives on being an ‘aware’ person, and it is really funny in spots.

It is a good read – not because any of the old Y2K stuff – but because it looks at what it is like being concerned about something that the public is oblivious to, how bizarre it can be to share that info with friends and family, and what sort of effects it can have on a person and their relationships.

Now before you blast me about the differences between Peak Oil and Y2K – rest assured that I am aware of those differences (I’ve been on TOD almost 2 years now). But PO and Y2K do share some similarities in the way that the information is disseminated and discussed primarily online, and in the general public’s non-awareness of the potential dangerous effects.

You are likely to recognize glimpses of yourself or your friends somewhere in this book. That’s NOT a bad thing. I found it gave me some valuable insights into the way I feel about the situation, and why some friends have reacted the way they have.

Anybody else here read it yet ???

Greg in MO

Y2K was perceived as a real threath in advance and consequently a huge effort was made to avert negative consequences. Who knows' what would have happened if nothing had been done?

Now, if this was the case with PO...

The mitigation of it also apparently caused the Internet Bubble by flooding the enterprise software market with cash. It is no coincidence that the bubble began to burst in 2Q2000.

If I recall, they had tons of 'old' computers that were made from the late 70's to late 90's that were NOT upgraded and allowed to pass through y2k naturally.

Nothing happened.

Y2K affected lots and lots of Cobol code and similar, archaic languages that use actual text to represent dates.

Unix, Linux, FreeBSD, etc all have an epoch, too. The world ends on January 19th, 2038, at 3:14:07, when 2^31 - 1 seconds have elapsed since 1/1/1970.

AOL has been bit by this already - some of their programs use a billion seconds as infinity and in the spring of 2006 the end of the world got closer than a billion seconds which broke some things.

If I recall, they had tons of 'old' computers that were made from the late 70's to late 90's that were NOT upgraded and allowed to pass through y2k naturally.

No, that is simply not true. I worked at NASA, as a CSC contractor, during the years running up to Y2K. We upgraded every computer on our site and made them Y2K compatable. A similar effort was made in all government sites as well as all banking and financial institutions.

There were no very old computers in use during those years. Those old mainframes were obsolete and cost more electricity to operate for a couple of months than a new computer cost. Plus they were much slower and had only a tiny fraction of the storage space. Remember computer technology, in speed and storage space, in those days was doubling about every 18 months. And the price of these new computers was tiny compared to the millions those old giant dinosaurs cost. There were simply no old computers in use in those days because of that very reason.

Any computer that still used two digit year codes, and there were a few of them, had serious problems. But the vast majority of them, at least 99%, had been upgraded to use four digit year codes.

Ron Patterson

I didn't worry about Y2K one bit.

I have dissassemblers (WDASM, IDA) and a debuggers (SoftIce, HView, etc. ). If my machines did ANYTHING I did not like, I would just open the program and find out why - and patch it.

This was in the era where a lot of kids were out there reversing software to remove registration codes. I figured our computing infrastructure was extremely robust and resilent when you factor in how many people out there knew assembler and exactly how the processor and kernel code works.

Today, though, I am not nearly as confident of the resilence of commercial software, albeit I still have a very high confidence of open-source software.

I have no doubt that breaches of Linux kernels would be highly discussed in tech forums and solutions explained and freely shared. I do not have this confidence for proprietary software, which relies on salesmanship, not technical understanding, for its adoption.

Leanan gave a beautiful distinction a few drumbeats ago when she discussed how resilence differs from efficiency.

IMHO, proprietary software is more efficient due to central control, but - like having all your corn all one strain - - its not very resistant to a blight that could take out the entire crop. Open Source software is more robust, providing one hires/trains/retains the skills to know it.

Its not the Y2K type stuff that I fear - rather its our own ignorance on how our systems work that would enable hostile entities to plant unseen rootkits in the commercial stuff, using botnets and snooping scripts to make google-like databases of everything companies thought was private.

My fear is also based on the suspected cooperation between our supposed antivirus vendors and the government regarding non-reporting of "approved" system intrusions, and the likelihood of hostile entities using this backdoor much like they used the famous Sony rootkit to violate systems that had played a Sony disk.

All these "hold harmless" clauses in the EULAs destroy my confidence of "trusted computing". All this lawmaking concerning the enforcement of ignorance of how our own computing infrastructure works scares the hell out of me.

Basically, I fear we are selling the resilence of our computational infrastructure for a song. Literally. Just so that knowledge can be monopolized.

When I have anything to do with proprietary OS, it seems to me like going to the the car dealership for a car, then immediately trucking it over to the Norton garage to have the wheels welded on so they don't fall off. I feel so stupid allowing the car dealership to force me into their EULA denying any guarantee the car will work, but the businessman who sent me demands that car, and I must fulfill his funded desire, not mine.

If I do not know what my own system is doing, I am wide open for someone else to control it - and I won't know who they are or what they are doing.

Geez, Monsters under the Bed all over again.

Steve

All these "hold harmless" clauses in the EULAs destroy my confidence of "trusted computing".

Software hold harmless clause did you say?
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/weapons/robot-cannon-goes-berserk-kills-9-312...

. The Oerlikon GDF-005 antiaircraft gun suddenly began uncontrollably shooting as it swung back and forth, spraying hundreds of high-explosive 35mm cannon shells all over the place. The crazed robot's handlers are still trying to figure out what sort of software bug would cause such mayhem.

have dissassemblers (WDASM, IDA) and a debuggers (SoftIce, HView, etc. ). If my machines did ANYTHING I did not like, I would just open the program and find out why - and patch it.

This was in the era where a lot of kids were out there reversing software to remove registration codes. I figured our computing infrastructure was extremely robust and resilent when you factor in how many people out there knew assembler and exactly how the processor and kernel code works.

hardhat, you don't sound like you have worked in a corporate software environment. Typically there are many software systems dependent on each other and it simply is not possible for one geek to patch a piece of software if it fails since the patch might screw up a whole lot of inter-dependencies. Not to mention that much, if not most of the software is under someone else's control and the lone geek doesn't have the authority to fix and replace the main source and object code.

In my own experience, Y2K software work was not at all straightforward and one often had to follow a 'trail' of dependency of different software systems and the data that was dealt with. In these conversations, people seem to ignore that it was not only a software problem but a data problem as well.

There were many situations where things probably would have been ok had nothing been done, but I remain convinced that Y2K would have been a much larger problem than it was. It remains one of those situations where you can't prove that the problem that was avoided would have happened if a lot of people hadn't paid attention to it.

Ron, there was no need to change computers. The problem was one of software in which dates had benn coded for storage with two digits for the year, Dec. 31, 1999 was stored as 991231 and Jan 1. 2000 would be 000101. When the two dates were compared, Jan 1, 2000 would be less than Dec 31, 1999 and therefore earlier. Mostly it was a matter of inserting code around the comparison to handle the situation.

No computer in use on Dec. 31, 1999 had an internal clock problem. If I remember correctly, there was an obscure computer model that would roll over its internal clock in 2008, but it was being phased out because of the obsolence you identified. However, several major OS's have still to reach the limits of their internal clock buffers; these include IBM's MVS and descendants, all Microsoft systems, the original Apple, and all Unix.

However, I believe the question will be moot because we'll be deep into collapse by that time.

-
James Gervais

Well, there were two approaches to Y2K:

1. Well financed enterprises and those having applicable regulation tested and fixed all software in advance. In the late 1990's I worked at FPL in Miami (a nuclear utility) where the expenses exceeded 50 million $US

2. The rest of the world simply let systems fail and fixed them afterwards, as is commonly done with software that runs annually such as year-end bookkeeping programs. Its far cheaper to fix it afterwards if you don't mind the consequences too much.

I hope that our Y2K experience does not harm us when trying to prepare for the downside of Peak Oil.

What a ringing endorsement! By a credible source!

As a retired banker my knowledge of computer systems could
be written on the back of a small postcard.
However my younger brother was at one time employed as a
'senior consultant lecturer' by a (the ?) major US computer
company. He travelled the World extensively in the course of his work, and lived in the States for 3 years.
He was adamant that the whole year 2K scare was a giant scam
that was milked for all it was worth by computer software
consultants, etc., for very large fees.
The date registers in the computers manufactured by his own
company were already programmed up to the year 2012 ( IIRC),
and he said that extending this date was a comparatively
simple matter that required no great programming skills.
As he was fond of pointing out, countries such as Italy and
Russia that took very little preventative action, suffered
no ill consequences.
Some of the nonsense in the MSM about microwave cookers
blowing-up, and pocket calculators not working after year
2K was absolutely laughable, and well illustrates the deep-
seated ignorance in the media regarding technical matters.
Is it any wonder that these same media-types are having
difficulty grasping the concept of oil (and other resources)
depletion.

I was working for Nortel at the time of the Y2K worries. From actually having worked with a lot of the code, I can tell you that there would have been major problems if nothing had been done to mitigate the date problem. The problem was recognized and largely fixed.

Small sidenote: In Feb. 2000 I received a water bill that billed me for a whole year's worth of water, followed by an apologetic letter. Some things didn't get fixed.

I was at the data center for the company I was contracted out to, when the Y2K rollover happened. The only failure was my watch.
We didn't have Y2K failures because it was so easy to test the software for Y2K failure, and once you tested it, it was obvious that you had to fix it. As in, the board of directors will fire you if you don't. So we just threw out the old computers and software and advanced the IT turnover cycle a little bit.
What we were really worried about was the software for infrastructure. That's the one where the electricity turns off for a few weeks, or the water, or the natural gas, or the sewage, or the oil, or anything with connections to some kind of network and dependent on that network. Some of that stuff gets replaced on a twenty or thirty year cycle and dated from before people started putting Y2K compatible into the contract specifications.
Banks and personal computers were never in doubt as to whether they would work. Anybody that failed would just make a short trip to bankruptcy court and have it's assets taken over by somebody who did have Y2K compliant software. No major problems for the rest of the world. Even that New Zealand company that had it's ATMs fail was not significant to anybody that wasn't an employee or a customer.

People,People,,,it was not the computer handling the year funtion as so much as it was all the massive archived data that had 2 digit dates....no company that I know of went back and changed all those records to 4 digits EXCEPT the Social Security Administration....

What they did was put 'sliding window ' code in the applications , such as those written in CICS,IMS and so forth.

The computers ran the Operating Systems(and needed a tad of patching like when the app asks for the timer/date function), and the applications needed a huge amount of patching.

What I did was run the TOD(time of day) clock forward to past the 1999 date into 2000 and then the input folks tested it with test cases..and plenty of them fell right on the floor.

But of course most just used the old date by appending 19 to the front...so therefore 'windowing'.

And the reason for sliding the window is each year to move that window forward...

If you access a record and it has 02 in the date..then is it going to be consider 2002 or 1902? Simple example but many many more abound.

Take tape expiration dates..written in the 'scrtch' tape header as a two digit field...presto then on 2000 all tapes are likely expired...another example.

And so it was a hell of a bloodbath but of course out of view of Joe Sixpack so he just assumed 'Nahhhh all bulshit'
but the dummy never seen the programmers and testers behind the scenes..

Yes Cobol and Fortran code but also BAL and many many apps written in all kinds of languages, Clipper,DB2 and on and on and on...but mostly big mainframe application that very large businesses used...the server farms were just getting started you see.

So all the old date fields are still 2 digit..the code doesn't 'abend' but may put out erroneous dates..and that is strickly up to the data ops people and the maintenance programmers to ensure the 'sliding window ' code updates keep being used appropiately.

I had an acct that died on the rollover..it employed about 150 workers and they were without jobs..the mgmt didn't follow IBMs advice to update the mircocode in the minicomputer they used for accounting.

I ended up with it in my basement and later threw it in the dumpster.

I worked two years in contract consulting on mainframes testing and preparation. Everybody who had any sense in data operations and data centers were scared shitless.

Did I make a lot of money? Not that much..$37/hour and $8/hour perdiem...and I worked many 60/70 hour weeks..then later they wanted me to extend my contract and I told them $45 /hr..they bitched but that was really chicken feed...Today IBM IGS contractors can pull down $200 / hr..of course they don't get all of that.

So the problem of 2 digit date fields still exists but has had a bandage applied...I think in areas of stock keeping and many older records the problems still occur with getting the date wrong..but

Someone up line said all the old mainframes were gone then.

That is absolutely untrue. A vivid example was air traffic control systems and the FFA...they were still using IBM mainframes with thermocouple modules and still be cooled by water chillers. I know for many retired guys were called in to fix them since all the new folks hired didn't know shit about them.

airdale-check my bio if you wish

PS. All this time and still many get it wrong!!!
Don't believe me? Google this : y2k window sliding code

Haven't read it but I just ordered it. Sounds like a good one.

Hi Greg,

Thanks for your comment. I think it's interesting how the discussion turned to Y2K - and it's very informative (of course).

I'd be really interested to hear more about:

re: "I found it gave me some valuable insights into the way I feel about the situation, and why some friends have reacted the way they have."

Is there any chance you might share more about this?

Perhaps you could give some eg. (and appropriate disguises for the identities of your friends, of course :)).