The Oil Drum

Hey hey Confederate,

Things get tricky here. Knustler is right. Alan Drake is right. But Toyota is going to sell more cars and America is not going to jump on the TOD bandwagon this year, next year or the year after.

Here is why it gets tricky, there are two different discussions going on here. Or more accurately there are two distinct discussions that should be separate.

1) What we should be doing. This discussion is about whether or not solar and sodium sulfur batteries is better than wind and pumped storage. Whether or not we should include nuclear. How we should structure trade and banking and the economy in general.

2) What we are actually going to do. This discussion is about how to reach local government, the media, business and society. What pain levels are going to be necessary to reach the average consumer. What is going to happen to the economy, banks and trade we actually have.

Both discussions are important and it is important not to confuse the two. Kunstler is important in waking people up; he smacks people upside the head with a 2X4 and that is needed. Alan Drake is important; he does have a REAL plan. Reaching Toyota is important; Toyota is going to sell millions of cars in the next few years and like it or not that will have an effect on how this all plays out.

My comment that Kunstler was counterproductive is part of the latter discussion. The people in the audience who applauded already agree with Kunstler. To that extent he was preaching to the choir, and in doing so he gave the cold shoulder to the only representative from the auto manufacturing sector.

For the record; my internal thoughts and motivation for thanking Justin for being there: Justin's presentation struck me as a sales pitch, much like Elizabeth Jones from the railroad commission. And to a lessor extent Richard Nehring and his 7 trillion barrels. Then I thought for a minute... This is how everyone else is thinking. This is how the world sees things. As far as the world is concerned these people are right and I am delusional... It's important that these three people are here because it gives me perspective. While Westexas's ELM is real and important to me, no one outside of this room has a clue about all of this... We need Justin's help with all the clueless people outside this room.

It would have been better for everyone if after Jim registered his protest Justin said something to the effect of

I know, I'm at a peak oil conference after all. If I go back to work and tell my boss that our whole sector is doomed then I'm going to lose my job and Toyota is just going to keep making more cars. So what I'm here for is to find out what kind of cars to make since they are going to be made anyways.

I went to thank Justin because we need him. We need a broad discussion about peak oil in all sectors and if we turn people away we are not going to get it. We have a minority view at present, a view the business community is not interested in hearing. If we go about reaching media, business and the political community with a message of abandoning the suburbs then little tinfoil hats appear above or heads and they continue on exactly as before.

Tim