<DrumBeat: October 23, 2007The Oil DrumASPO Houston - a comment>

178 comments on The Connection Between Food Supply and Energy: What Is the Role of Oil Price?

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Euan Mearns on October 23, 2007 - 10:37am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Glen, I spoke with David Hughes of the Canadian Geological survey at ASPO Houston and one mind blowing statistic he gave me was that agriculture is roughly 6% efficient. To produce 1 cal of food requires 17 cals of energy. Apparently, about 100 years ago the ratio was 1:1. Fortunately during transition we can eat less meat and boost that efficiency.

Are the data you produce for the USA?

Are you able to comment on crop yields and fertilizer usage - and throw us a chart showing declining yields with oil price?

Finally, with 5.75 billion dead - where are the slaves going to come from?

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gregorach on October 23, 2007 - 11:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yep, we have the least efficient food production system ever devised in the entire history of civilisation, by several orders of magnitude.

Personally, I see that as a cause for hope - it means that we have ample opportunity to improve it. We've gone down the brute force route simply because that was cheapest and easiest (well, that and a few historical accidents). When brute force solutions are no longer cheap or easy, then perhaps we can start trying more elegant approaches (I'm thinking Permaculture here).

As for slaves, I doubt they'll be needed. If the choice is work the land or starve, I know which one I'll be choosing. I've lived the life of an agricultural labourer before, and it really wasn't all that bad.

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SamuM on October 23, 2007 - 2:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, except as per our "let others do the work" ethos, the guys with the guns who don't want to muddy their hands, will take it from those who actually farm. By force.

This is the way it has been in the history of food production in times of scarcity and empires.

If things come to scarcity again at global scale, I think it is fair to assume that the same cause of action is at least probable.

Here's hoping it won't come to that.

Reading the One-Straw Revolution (Fukuoka), one can't help to think that a more efficient production system is possible, but it will take time to learn for most and even longer to transition to it. That is, if energy scarcity becomes so bad as to warrant a complete makeover of the "totalitarian agriculture" as Daniel Quinn has labeled it.

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nh3 on October 24, 2007 - 5:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

slaves? who need them if the robotics can do their jobs more cost effectively?
guns? who need them if the designer virus can do their jobs more cost effectively?

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Henry on October 23, 2007 - 6:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is land that is adequate for pasture that is not adequate for much else. Grass fed beef can be raised without foregoing other crops, so what needs to be changed is the foolish feeding of grains to beef, not the elimination of the high quality protein that meat is.

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seismobob on October 23, 2007 - 9:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I couldn't tease a relation between oil price and crop yield out of the data. Last year's wheat crop was abysmal because of weather, not because of price. I touched on that in the note. There are too many variables for yield other than fertilizer use.

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm

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