The Oil Drum

Once again, some details. We showed a low case, middle case and high case for net exports from the top five. Our middle case for 10 years hence showed that total net exports from the top five (half of current world net exports) would be equal to current US total petroleum imports.

In regard to the bottom half, we have some countries like Mexico with high levels of consumption, which will probably result in net export crashes, and some countries like Angola, showing higher net exports. We also have the nonconventional production from Canada, although the net energy exports from Canada may not be that impressive. Venezuela has lots of nonconventional potential, but their production appears to be drifting downward, while consumption is exploding, up 9%/year for the past five years.

We haven't tried to model the bottom half, but my guess is that total net world exports will be down by at least 75% by 2031, at which point total net exports would equal current US total petroleum imports. (Our middle case shows the top five hitting zero net exports in 2031).