44 comments on Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Resource and Oil Depletion
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Nooo
Everything will be just fine, the automakers are coming out with electrical cars soon. And that will solve both Peak Oil and Global warming, and the US won´t attack Iran and start the WWIII. -:)
Like cool dude. Pass the bong so I can get stoned with you. :)))
“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24
"Like cool dude"
I like that hahaha.
I presume you are making a weak attempt at sarcastic humor.
You assume George Bush is sane and will act rationally. Maybe or maybe not.
So far it looks like oil production has hit a wall and is unlikely to go much higher. This means that our energy income is fixed, about ready to decline, so where is the energy going to come from to creating these electric cars and to build and operate the extra electric generating infrastructure?
Taking a few aspirin does not cure cancer.
You're kiddin right? I mean, you don't know the size of the world's current manufacturing capacity? Put it this way: it has never been so high (forget WW2). So even if you dent it a little, all it takes is concentration of efforts.
all it takes is concentration of efforts
That sounds like a planned economy, and that is communism!
Doing a back of a napkin calculation, maybe there are 600 million motor vehicles in operation around the world and maybe 30 million are produced annually, meaning it would take 20 years production to replace all these. That assumes that magically, all the motor vehicle manufacturing facilities could be converted and additional facilities could be created to manufacture the batteries. All this takes energy and it would take several years to ramp up, even if there was a will to do so or a market for these vehicles. How many auto buyers are going to be willing to pay the extra price they would be forced to pay? And if you look at some studies, electric cars are not really net energy savers when compared to even a Hummer because the higher amount of energy required to create and maintain electric cars, batteries, and some sort of "refueling infrastructure" is not offset by the fuel savings. Electric cars may well just be another boondoggle like ethanol, maybe worse.
In my estimation, by 2020 the USA which imports 60% of the oil it uses, and Japan which imports close to 100%, two big auto manufacturers, will not be able to import much oil because exporting nations post 2011 peak will likely not have much excess to export. Where does that leave all this current vehicle manufacturing capacity? With the current electric generating capacity it is questionable that there is sufficient generating capacity to even keep the present demand supplied, much less meet the demands of electric cars.
Electric cars are going to be a challenge. To replace all gasoline/diesel vehicles with electric is probably unrealistic. Firstly, where does the electricity come from to charge the batteries? No doubt, from a power station near you, likely a coal, NG or oil fired plant. These contribute heavily to global warming by the way. And these are the resources in decline in the first place. Maybe not so much with coal but its 'peak moment' is coming. The batteries in these electric cars poses a big problem, they are made with materials that are both toxic and increasingly rare. Cars themselves take huge amounts of energy to produce. What I see is a significantly scaled-back post-industrial society with very few cars and lots of passenger trains and light rail and lots and lots of bicycles and pedestrians! The ultimate answer to urban sprawl and urban waist sprawl. A leaner society in more ways than one.
Hmmm. WEEELL, if we somehow SAVE POWER by not creating those pesky ICE engines, and then SAVE SOME MORE POWER by not using OIL at ALL in that ABSENT gas tank, you know, the GAS that *hahumm* contributes to GW, perhaps the total ammount of power is even LESS than what's used right NOW.
The real question is not the quantity of energy that is used. It is not that really big ammount. You are already manufacturing what, hundreds of thousands of cars every month? The real question is: is it feasible and economical? Will the bureocracy go against it? Will the big corporations be against it until it is too late to do anything about it? Do we have TIME to retrofit it?
I don't think PO marks the point of SHittinTF.
The US car market is 16 million vehicles a year. The worldwide car market is 30 million pieces. Someone is starting to sell a $6000 car in India so I expect volumes (but not necesarily sales) to double in the next generation.
All that energy will come from the sun. Because the sun is the only low entropy source of new energy we have.
Electric vehicles have their drawbacks but when the alternative is pushing your ICE, it sounds pretty good. There's a thousand different battery chemistries out there. Some with rarer metals than others but we can always make a battery. Your ICE has toxic materials in it. Just don't let your cat nibble on the lead acid battery.
RobertInTucson
I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.
We aren't going to run out of sodium and sulfur, but since the sodium sulfur battery runs at pretty high temperature you are going to need to haul around a lot of volume and mass to keep it warm.
Figure one ton for the car, one ton for the passengers and groceries, one ton for the battery, and one ton for enough extra car to haul around the battery. Eight Wheel Drive!
And it still beats walking to work.
All battery chemistries have drawback. We can use sodium-sulfer if we run out of better materials. The battery will keep itself warm. We only have to preheat it to start.
Out of the 20 trillion dollars it will cost us to transition to the new age economy, we can budget a hundred billion to get an asteroid. Then we'll have all the nickel for all the batteries we'll ever want.
RobertInTucson
I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.
Ok
It was sarcastic humor from me, But not 100%. Electrical cars could replace a part but how much? of our transportation needs. Then the problem with charging of batteries depends in which country you live in. Some countrys have electrical production without fossil fuel plants, and there should not be any big problems(charge at nights).
Then how many batteries we can produce in the future sure is a big Q-mark.
Either way i am not so doomerish as many folks on this site. I believe we will manage with only about 50% die-off for the world as a whole, and less for sparsely populated countrys with nuclear and hydro electrical production. But of cource this is only my optimistic hypotesis without any scientific background whatsoever.
It sure will be interesting to follow the events forward.
Recently read an article in one of our car magazines that basically said: "Oh, the oil will be gone in 50 years but then we'll be all driving electric cars. You will hear electric powered Ferraris buzzing around. Of course, that sound wouldn't be so exciting as present sound of V12 engine.."
Obviously, car worshippers also have faith in electricity to bail us out. But, will there be enough power plants to provide all that needed electricity (homes, industry, rail, cars,..)? I recall reading on TOD about how many nukes or coal/gas plants should be built to substitute oil usage in transportation, the number was quite impressive. Not to mention uranium or NG/coal depletion.
Voice from the country of two lane highways and still inflating housing bubble
so doomerish as many folks on this site. I believe we will manage with only about 50% die-off
Yea, what with 'total global nuke war' as an entry - you are a ray-o-sunshine lighting up the bucket of hope.
Yeah. My brother is starting to come around sort of and talks Toyota Prius is the answer and how good it is that Germany has done so much with solar(I live in Germany and he in Alaska so he wants to sound openminded and informed to me). People don't get the big picture. He always say "in 50 years".
“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24
"What I see is a significantly scaled-back post-industrial society with very few cars and lots of passenger trains and light rail and lots and lots of bicycles and pedestrians! The ultimate answer to urban sprawl and urban waist sprawl. A leaner society in more ways than one." I think I agree with most of that statement except for the part about a post industrial society. Different industrial processes certainly but there will be industry. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/29/technology/29agassi.html?_r=1&ref=busi...