<DrumBeat: October 30, 2007 The Oil Drum It's no longer 'oil', it's 'liquids'>

44 comments on Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Resource and Oil Depletion

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

totoneila on October 30, 2007 - 6:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello ChrisN,

IMO, it is easily feasible to have 'induced-black swan events', or what I prefer to call them is 'Societal Liebig Minimums', that will generally not be perceived as such by the general global public, or ignored/denied by most.

Recall my postings on Asimov's Foundation concepts of predictive collapse and directed decline judiciously applied under the doctrine of the porridge principle of metered decline.

Again, IMO, this provides the optimal paradigm shift as we winnow out billions through the Dieoff Bottleneck. Can you think of a better method to jumpstart Peak Outreach and the conversion to the sequential building of biosolar habitats?
Can you think of a better way to roll back the planetary petri dish clock from 11:59.99 to approx. 11:30 or even earlier?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20071029bcmideastgaza1stledewritethru_...
-------------------------------
Conditions worsen in Gaza as Israel tightens grip
------------------------------

My hope is that the TopTODers can really investigate & expand upon my crude text writings. Just imagine what we could do with a very large supercomputer cluster, plus bleeding edge science & logistics modeling software.

Matt's LATOC has had numerous past articles on military, government, think-tank, and scientific institutional simulation runs on various scenarios. My guess is that this is just the 10% unclassified tip of the iceberg vs. the 90% of the hidden or submerged classified modeling runs. Who knows?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
ChrisN on October 30, 2007 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Bob, you're clearly deep into the theory of collapse, and sometimes I struggle just to wade through the concepts. I get your ambition, but somehow I doubt that we're going to get through it by any preconceived methodology or theory or managed process.

Liebig's observation was descriptive, not proscriptive, right? Our planetary petri dish is going to do its thing and there's not a whole lot that can be done about it consciously, IMHO. Substitute "planet Earth" for your "very large supercomputer cluster, plus bleeding edge science & logistics modeling software" and I'm with ya.

Perhaps Douglas Adams was right: We are that supercomputer, all trying to calculate the greatest answer to the greatest question (which turns out to be 42, if memory serves).

--C
Energy consultant, writer, blogger www.getreallist.com

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on October 31, 2007 - 2:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello ChrisN,

Thxs for responding. The basic operating mode of Foundation is to let Mother Nature and human nature take its pounds of flesh, but attempt to steer this mode in desired directions by constantly tweaking or ignoring developing trends for optimum effect and control.

For example:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a0WAzQxwAbNg&refer=us
--------------------------------------------
Atlanta Urinals, Fountain Run Dry as UPS, Coke Fight Drought
-----------------------
All these water conservation measures should be expected, and I hope the SE drastically raises potable water prices to promote further water savings combined with Humanure done on a huge municipal scale.

But if things continue to get worse: what is the next step?

Recall my speculative FEMA plan to start relocating SouthEasterners to a rehabilitated Detroit and other areas along the Great Lakes [a tweaking mitigation to reduce possible building blowbacks]. Now I have no idea [need a supercomputer to analyze, or an inside source] if FEMA prefers this possible tweaking, or prefers to 'purposely ignore' the situation, thus accelerating the natural growth of cascading blowbacks. I can't imagine FEMA not being aware of possible SE drought consequences; they have no excuse, no credibility to say the drought 'caught' them unprepared, if the worst comes to pass. Their mission statement clearly requires them to be prepared for such eventualities.

Consider the widely recognized, elevated risk profile of Nawlins and other outlying areas before Katrina: was the situation 'purposely ignored' by the Corps of Eng., and other govt and insurance entities that could have easily forced early abandonment, or the building of heavily reinforced levees, and/or low-level land infill much earlier?

Consider the long, global history of civilizational and ecological Overshoot & Decline, clearly understood by leaders since Malthusian effects were clearly delineated over two hundred years ago: the topdogs, if desired, could have mitigated this long ago by universal outreach [hell, they still could get started today!], but I believe they have other plans. They too have no excuse for plausible deni-ability--thus, that is why I see so much Foundation implementation when I examine the news. Of course, your mileage may vary.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

44 comments on Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Resource and Oil Depletion

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version