 | The Bullroarer - Friday 2 November 2007 | The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | The Real ‘PPP’: Populism, Probity and Peak-oil in the River City’s Tunnel Deal |  |
67 comments on Part 2. The Future in Australia: The Next 13 years.
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67 comments on Part 2. The Future in Australia: The Next 13 years.
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GAIA Host Collective
Hi Richard,
My worst case scenario assumes that things will be "rotten" as you say, then get better. I give it a less than 50% chance of ever occuring.
My best case is pretty much the situation you describe, with one notable difference - regardless of which scenario plays out, at the end things will be different. We don't all just wear an extra jumper for a while, then go back to how things were. PO may get "solved", but that won't be enough. We need to learn that mindless consumption is not sustainable.
As for the quote that in Russia "a lot died", I had doubts about including that bit of the quote, as it jangled me too, but to stay true to Dmitri's message I needed to include it. You are right, hunger was not a major cause of death - I never suggested that it was, in fact I never discussed a drop in population in Russia at all. There was malnutrition, but not much starvation. The drop in population in Russia has other causes, including alcohol. Alcoholism is a problem in Russia - and always was. Dmitri feels that there was an increase in deaths due to alcoholism, crime and suicide and this increase can be blamed on the collapse. Is he right? I don't know. I wasn't there, but it seems plausible.
I will write part 3 with the Best Case last, so that I don't leave such a negative impression.
La "mayor" problema es la Tequila!!! LOL no seriously....
I'd really like to see if people don't keep their numbers down voluntarily when they're no longer captives of the Constant Growth religion, I think from Tikopia to the US's Great Depression you'll find that as with hunter-gatherers, people do regulate their numbers. The dramatic cases of starvation cannibalism etc were during "cliffs". Good examples being Stalingrad, that famine in Egypt you can read about on the net, etc.
Aeldric,
I'm not from Australia, but from Holland. Gas is here US$ 8.10, because of tax. NG that most people use to heat their home is equally expensive.
The good part is: A lot of people adapt to the high prices of energy by basically using less. For example: In the morning, a lot of people commute to work by bike. There is an excellent bicycle infrastructure and people actually use it.
All I can say is that high prices will push people to change their ways and they will do so rather fast. We shouldn't be too negative about it.
Hi Richard,
Yep. In Australia petrol prices bounce around a bit but it is around US$5 or US$6 per gallon (though of course we use litres not gallons), so I am not to worried that our US cousins will start to die if it hits US$4.
Aeldric,
Besides, some of them might benefit from the exercise ...
;-