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274 comments on DrumBeat: October 31, 2007

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Dragonfly41 on October 31, 2007 - 9:02am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Question and informal poll:

If there are large drops in today's Weekly Petro Report and the Fed cuts rates between .25 & .50, how many believe WTI crude will reach $100 TODAY?

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Cedar on October 31, 2007 - 9:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Maybe, but only if in addition to this the Fed lowers by 50 bp and GWB utters the words "Iran" or "democratize" or "nookyaler," preferably in the same paragraph.

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theantidoomer on October 31, 2007 - 9:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dragonfly, most are expecting a .25 point cut, so that's already built in to the price. .50 point cut probably gets to 93 something again today. No cut and it plummets to 88 or lower.

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mcgowanmc on October 31, 2007 - 9:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"No cut and it plummets to 88 or lower."

The DJIA will drop over 300 pts.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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mcgowanmc on October 31, 2007 - 9:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If it went to $100 today, that would qualify as a Black Swan.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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garyp on October 31, 2007 - 11:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nope.

By very virtue of the fact its being talked about, it can't be a black swan (unlikely maybe, but its not unthinkable).

If it were to go to $110 that might qualify.....or at least it would have if I hadn't just mentioned it.

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PeakTO on October 31, 2007 - 10:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I have stated that I believe it will go to 100, if they cut the whispered .50 pts.

.25 may not be that surprizing...but I think it will stay up around 93-95 range.

If they do nothing, bah...they won't.

Still think there is a better than 50% chance we will get .50. But, only G*d knows how these guys think. And, they may have been frightened by the crude run up in the last week.

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mcgowanmc on October 31, 2007 - 10:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Then they're telegraphy machine is broken, because
everyone is expecting a rate cut.

The $ will crash if they go 50.

But Goldman will crash if they don't.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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PeakTO on October 31, 2007 - 11:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The dollar will crash either way...just a matter of rate of crash.

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274 comments on DrumBeat: October 31, 2007

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