<This Week in Petroleum 10-31-07 The Oil Drum Are We in a Speculative Bubble with Regard to Oil Prices?>

17 comments on A Few Charts of the US Crude Oil Supply and Stocks Situation

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mcgowanmc on October 31, 2007 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Crazyland.

A barrel of crude is 42 gallons.

http://greenyes.grrn.org/2006/10/msg00084.html

"It all depends on where and what the specific refinery is reforming for and
if they are focusing on gasoline.

Here is the average breakdown of refined products for 2000:
source: http://www.classroom-energy.org/teachers/oilfacts.pdf page 3

Product Gallons per Barrel
Gasoline 19.4
Distillate Fuel Oil 9.7
(Includes both home heating oil and diesel fuel)
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 4.3
Coke 2.0
Residual Fuel Oil 1.9
(Heavy oils used as fuels in industry, marine
transportation, and for electric power generation)
Liquefied Refinery Gases 1.9
Still Gas 1.8
Asphalt and Road Oil 1.4
Petrochemical Feedstocks 1.1
Lubricants 0.5
Kerosene 0.2
Other 0.4

On 10/2/06, David Biddle wrote:
>
> From:
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/sources/non-renewable/oil.html
>
>
> "One barrel of crude oil, when refined, produces about 20 gallons of
> finished motor gasoline, and 7 gallons of diesel, as well as other petroleum
> products. "

$95 divided y 42 is basically $2.2+.

If all the crude had a wand waved over it as it passed from ground to gas station, turning it into unleaded 87 octane
the wand waver would still not make money.

Add 45 cents in State/Fed taxes.

Gasoline pricing is the last finger in the dike of the American Economy.

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

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memmel on October 31, 2007 - 10:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Although the situation was different we also had a lot of excess refining capacity at the end of the 1970's

Can anyone find some graphs of prices vs refining capacity back into say the 1950's or so to the present ?

I've seen them before on the oil drum.
http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/Refinery_Utilization.htm

In my opinion this shows that refinery utilization has dropped
since katrina.

The crack spread seems to be highly volatile but generally going up over time compared to 2003. This is contrary to the claim that its decreased it has relative to the wild swings we have seen but not vs 2003. So profitability is higher yet utilization is lower.
http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/Cracking_Margins.htm
Dunno how to to interpret this

Gasoline production is volatile but increasing. Notice we are producing more gasoline than ever before but have lower utilization.

And this graph is very interesting.

http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/World_Oil_Supply_and_Demand.htm

My son who is five plays these games where you pick one thing that is not like the others and US refinery utilization stands out. They have a ton of data on this site. But the refinery utilization given all the other numbers are up indicates to me that refineries would not be well supplied if they actually converted the current oil stocks at capacity. I don't know enough to interpret all the data but something is obviously wrong IMHO.

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Slippery Slope on November 1, 2007 - 2:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

memmel,
I agree that low refinery utilisation should be a canary in the coal mine with regard to observing the effects of diminished crude oil supplies after the peak. Oil tanker utilisation is obscured by the changeover to double-hulls.

The hypothesis that crude oil production has peaked has the observable consequence of lower crude oil refinery utilisation. High refinery utilization is not consistent with a post peak situation, but low refinery utilisation is by itself not proof that the peak has passed, rather just more consistent evidence.

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memmel on November 1, 2007 - 1:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm not saying its proof just that we are living right now in a sort of Indian Summer period where refiners are slashing margins to keep refineries operating or they have to shut them down. Soon we will start to see refineries shutdown if they are not economically positioned to compete at the razor thin margins post peak.

The other situation is demand causes prices to increase and refiners again see large profits for a bit and more oil is imported causing higher crude prices. I really don't think we will see this again simply because America cannot afford another round of bidding and I think we will see some very high gasoline import prices soon. So in my opinion the US has already lost the next bidding war to Europe and Asia.

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Murray on November 7, 2007 - 7:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Memmal, economics is not my strong point, so I'm not sure I follow the "razor thin margins" and "may have to shut down" reasoning. This query is not sarcasm.
thinks
I have crude stock now purchased at $80.00. I think the price will be back to $80.00 in late winter/early spring. I don't want to use my $80.00 stock now, and use $95.00 stock in the spring, when prices are lower. Therefore I will refine as little as possible now. However I have to buy some oil on the cash market to keep operating, at high prices, and the end product prices have not yet gone up proportionately, so my margins are thin.

Is that the logic? Or what?

Seems to me that if I shut down now, end product prices will go through the roof, and the guys who are still refining will have huge margins, so that doesn't work.

Why is everything up and utilization down? Seems like that post Katrina, as well as repairing facilities, considerable capacity may have been added. No? Murray

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17 comments on A Few Charts of the US Crude Oil Supply and Stocks Situation

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