9 comments on The Bullroarer - Thursday 1 November 2007
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In my opinion gas will become too valuable to use in baseload electrical generation. I know this is done in places like Adelaide but it is not even combined cycle with higher efficiencies. We'll need gas for peak power, CNG especially for truck fleets and for a variety of high value processing industries. I think this can be shown via a time optimal model but future prices would be pure guesswork.
If we were a smart country instead of just lucky there would be a policy statement on this. The mandarins are too gobsmacked from Dr. Karl's bombshell to think any further ahead.
i think we have to be careful to separate the global and regional context. there's little doubt that the world market for gas is going to be just about as tight as that for oil. but australia does have a heck of a lot of gas, and local use will always have an economic advantage over long distance shipping. the only problem is that largest gas resources are on the west coast, a long way from the east coast markets. then again, coal seam methane production in Qld has actually grown faster than most expectations the last few years.
so i think gas is an appropriate bridging fuel in the australian context (within modest expectations), but definitely not for those in Europe/North America/Asia.
see you next time i'm in hobart.. it's where i was born and seems like a good place to be post peak-oil and climate change! :-)
cheers
phil.
and if i were in new zealand, although there are modest local oil and gas resources, i would be seriously considering my exposure at the very end of the supply chain - a lot like Ireland in terms of supply vulnerability.
A myth. Read Brian Fleay's paper "NATURAL GAS 'MAGIC PUDDING' OR DEPLETING RESOURCE"
http://greens.org.au/election/downloads0/greens_1187836096.pdf
Our natural gas should be used
(1) as an energy input to manufacture renewable energy systems e.g. solar panels and mirrors (energy intensive)
(2) for fertilizer production
(3) as CNG for road transport where rail cannot go
(4) for power supply of rail electrification
Well, you've already agreed to supply New Zealand with LNG from 2020 onwards, so there'll be less of it anyway. As for us being at the end of the supply chain - yes, you're dead right. We really do need to look at it. Right now there's a company trying to build a Natural Gas power station near Auckland, but they're having all sorts of problems. Here's hoping it never gets built.