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55 comments on Warning: The Mining Boom is Fading Fast
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I can recall from my geology lectures that iron and aluminum are some of the most common elements in the earth's crust, it is unlikely that we will be out of iron any time soon. There were huge high grade deposits in Brazil and elsewhere that are not on the verge of collapse, there were lower grade iron sources of much greater magnitude. Clay is rich in aluminum, bauxite is richer. We have not run out of aluminum as the earth's crust is loaded with aluminum silicates called feldspars. Feldspar minerals are the most common minerals in the earth's crust. It is true that rare metals are hard to find. That is why they were called precious metals. Much precious metal was refined as a result of base metal mining. Some copper ore contained gold and occasionally there was silver in lead-zinc ore. There will never be enough of anything to support unlimited population growth. There is a greater lack of wisdom in the world than lack of minerals.
A few months ago people were speculating that we were on the verge of irreversible oil declines and the end of lifestyle as we know it. Then I read that the world might peak in oil production in 2030. This is because there are huge deposits of heavy oil that was considered trash ten years ago. "One man's treasure is another man's trash".
A stone that was considered by some to a tripping hazard was found to be of great value by one who used it as a cornerstone.
Toxic tailings are not tripping stones. Depletion of resources is not a matter for shrugging off as though somebody will simply think of a way to make lemonade out of this lemon.
We transform our world into a toxic wasteland even though we know exactly what we are doing.
Our world is increasingly violent, with more weapons and more brutal weapons introduced with great fanfare each year.
Our climate is changing in ways that will sweep over us like an ecological tsunami.
We have petroleum resource depletion, soil depletion, water depletion....and a growing population.
Failing mining industry seems more like a another serious sign of collapse than something to dismiss easily.
Reserves don't mean Production
Just because something exists in the ground, doesn't mean it's going to be extracted. It depends on the required energy being available.
At the time it was finished the (DC) Washington Monument was topped with aluminum, at the time it was more of a precious metal than gold.
The energy needed to make one new aluminum can is the same as the energy needed to recycle twenty aluminum cans.
The energy saved from recycling one aluminum can is enough to run a TV set for 3 hours and a 100 watt light bulb for 4 hours.
Recycling 1 aluminum can saves enough energy to run a 100-Watt bulb for 20 hours; a computer for 3 hours; or a TV for 2 hours
[EPA]
You can read many reports with these kind of projections. It is a matter of fact that crude oil production peaked in 2005. Read here:
"Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? And Other Oil Supply Insights"
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3052
I do not think the exact date matters. Anyway the data is not transparent enough so it is also OK to say that oil peaked in a three year period 2004-2007. It could be even longer if we stay on this bumpy plateau.
The real issue is increasing demand in China, India, Russia and the OPEC countries. Last year 70m cars were sold. Maybe even more will be sold in 2007, many to people whose only trade in is a bike.
With flat supply, what is driving those extra cars? Or are we all driving less, or smaller cars?
Actually the real issue is Peak Oil and lack of additional supply. Demand from China and India is way below US and European demand. There is even increasing demand in the US believe it or not.
If there was additional supply available e.g. some new Saudi Arabia or magic bullet were found then no problem at all Oil would be at $10 per BBL.
Umm. Even if we found a magical new Saudi Arabia that could instantly produce 8 mbd, and even if the rest of the world could magically not decline, we would be right back at peak oil in 4 years (2% growth rate). At 3%, it would only take 3 years.
It doesn't matter how much new oil we find, we cannot grow oil production.