89 comments on Peak oil coverage on CNBC
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Well, I'm amazed to see the headline "peak oil reality" on the MSM.
I don't think there's going to be a sudden moment when everyone "wakes up" to peak oil. Acceptance is going to come gradually. They'll have "both views," and not take a side, and reality will eventually win over. OPEC will gradually admit that they can't increase production. Traders will realize $40 oil is never coming back. Etc.
Until one day, it's the people saying peak won't be until 2040 who are the quacks, and we won't know quite how it happened.
Simmons is fond of quoting oil in price per cup. He uses 15 cents per cup to show how cheap it is compared to anything else of any value. He must not have checked out agricultural commodities. A pound of corn which is more than a cup sells for about six cents locally. How is it that as oil prices rise to $300 that agricultural commodities can remain priced so cheaply? If they do, ethanol/biodiesel production will continue to expand.
Critics of oil sands, ethanol, biodiesel often complain that these are not a cure all as promoted by some advocates. It is not necessary to have a cure all, silver bullet type solution in the early stages of post peak oil where the decline rate is relatively small. Some conservation brought by higher prices (finally) and increased production of tar sands, ethanol and biodiesel will partially mitigate peak oil effects initially. I think that is what is happening now in that gasoline prices are slow to follow crude oil's lead to new highs.
No, practical, corn is not six cents per cup.
There are 128 cups per bushel.
Corn, according to Friday's close, is 3.77$ per bushel.
3.77 divided by 128 equals .029453125. Let's call it 3 cents per cup. I would say that that is substantially less six cents.
If you remember correctly, he said that nothing "worthwhile" is priced less than fifteen cents a cup.
While food seems very "worthwhile" to me, others apparently find that not to be the case.
http://www.populistamerica.com/stop_calling_me_a_doomer
If you ground that corn up and packed it into a cup to remove most of the air volume, does it make a difference?
:-)
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
Since oil and natural gas based fertilizer are among the main inputs into corn, the price of corn is going to go up with the price of crude oil. Since is takes at least 5 barrels of oil and gas to produce ethanol with the energy equivalent of 6 barrels of oil, the cost of ethanol is going to go up a lot, too.
Most fertalizers are made of Natural Gas. If oil rose to $300, but NG stayed at $7 MCF, or even doubled to $14 MCF, food price increases will be much less than you think.
PartyGuy,
Only nitrogen fertilizer is made out of natural gas. Phosphorus is mined from phosphate rock deposits mostly located in Florida in the US and potash is from strip mines in New Mexico in the US. Its hard to call one-third of the fertilizer requirements "most fertilizers are made of natural gas".
Another big source of nitrogen fetilizer is bird guano. Mostly in the US agribusiness manure is a pollutant in water run-off although some is composted and sold in garden supply stores. Its a real wasted asset.
Bob Ebersole
Nitrogen fertilizer is the "dominant" fertilizer of the three nutrient fertilizers you refer to. Approximately 85% of all ammonia used in the US is used for nitrogen fertilizer, a substantial amount as anhydrous ammonia. At more than $500/ton, it has gotten quite expensive.
Phosphorus (as phosphate) and potassium (as potash) while "mined" also require substantial treatment to turn to suitable agricultural products. That means energy.
In addition to the phosphate mined from Florida (the highest point in Florida is actually a gypsum stack from the phosphate rock processing), you also have substantial deposits in eastern NC (Aurora, PCS Phosphate) and eastern ID (Soda Springs). In the case of the Eastern ID deposits, the rock is either hauled by dedicated haul road (the trucks on this road have the right of way when the cross "ordinary" roadways) or pipelined to the phosphate plant. PCS Phosphate in Aurora is the single largest phosphate mine in the US ( if not the world).
All "manures" tend to be high in nitrogen (and phosphorus) but there is a transportation/cost issue with the weights required for commercial agriculture.
I believe he often compares it to the cost of water...
I'm not sure that his argument is that it should cost more than water, which i would disagree with, but that it should be at least at parity with water.
Really? You don't think that crude oil, which takes hundreds of millions of years to form, and fairly rare geological structures to preserve until today, made from millions of years' worth of sunlight, shouldn't cost more than something that falls freely from the sky?
--C
No. It will come like a thunderbolt.
Or thermonuclear cloud.
See Missing Nukes: Treason of the Highest Order
By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya
11/02/07 "Global Research"
Every oil discovery/production watershed has been acompanied
by a Major SocioEconomic Event.
Every one.
We are now moving off the plateau and ito the Olduvai
Gorge.
Two Events are happening now:
1) Fallon was in Pakistan Friday.
"According to an Inter Services Public Relations statement, Admiral Fallon also called on Vice Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani at General Headquarters and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majid at Joint Staff Headquarters, Rawalpindi, and discussed matters of professional and mutual interest with them.
It was the first interaction of the US Centcom chief with the two top military officers of Pakistan after their elevation. Though officially there was no word about the details of the talks, defence sources said that terrorism, Waziristan and the Swat situation and increasing suicide attacks on security forces were part of the discussions. online/staff report"
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\11\03\story_3-11-2007_pg1_9
The last factual story you'll be getting from Pakistan for awhile.
"“The situation in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas, Afghanistan, the ongoing operation in Swat, joint military exercises and other issues of professional interest were discussed in the meeting,” Sajjad Malik reported diplomatic and government sources as saying.
The president said the operation against extremist elements in Swat was continuing and peace would soon established there.
Fallon lauded Pakistan’s efforts in the elimination of terror and said that the US would continue to provide assistance to Pakistan."
2) I said that Mexico's oil production had essentially
stopped US Exports.
Confirmation:
""The storms have forced the closure of three of Mexico's main oil ports, preventing almost all exports and halting a fifth of the country's oil production. It has a strong economic impact" Calderon said in an interview.
The storm did not spare the Bay of Campeche, Mexico's main oil producing region and home to more than 100 oil platforms.
Overall, the region normally exports about 1.7 million barrels of crude daily. Since, most of the production remains shut down, it would mean that Mexico's output would drop by 2.6 million barrels a day."
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009043379
It will not come back.
Citigroup on Monday will announce that it's insolvent.
From elaine supkis. This Great Dame rocks:
Schumer And Feinstein Betray Constitution And Voters
November 3, 2007
Elaine Meinel Supkis
Thanks to Hitler and 2,000 years of persecution of the Jews by the two other religions they gave birth to, we can't talk reasonably about the Jewish people. I was Mrs. Levy for many years plus I come from, on my father's side, a German/Jewish background. Hitler would have killed me if he could. So I have a right to talk about the Jewish situation in the United States. The sudden reversal over the Jewish Attorney General nominee by two Jewish Senators, Feinstein and Schumer, shows clearly how Jews in our governemnt are sticking together even in the teeth of severe disapproval of the voters at large in their own states over any issue concerning power of Princes.
Hell's Gates open .
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
A couple of links for the stories you noted.
Missing Nukes: Treason of the Highest Order
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7158
Bond Insurers Are Going Bankrupt Now
http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2007/11/elaine-meine...
Also, make sure to read Doug's piece this week.
Road to Ruin
by Doug Noland
I pose the following question for contemplation: How much would the Chinese government, with their $1.4 TN stockpile of chiefly dollar reserves, be willing these days to pay for the necessary energy resources to sustain their economy and stem social unrest?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8752.htm
This one by Mish is a MUST READ. This week we just might see the whole banking industry go "Caster's Up" as we say in the IT world.
Downward Spiral of Deep Junk
by Mike Shedlock
Buckle Up folks.
John
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8758.htm
Thank you very much.
I read them. Robert Rubin to be head of Citigroup.-calculatedRiskblogspot
Unloading Toxic Waste Mortgage Backed Securities: “We Americans Were Very Clever”
November 2nd, 2007
http://cryptogon.com/?p=1555
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Iran already has twelve nuclear capable cruise missiles purchased from the Ukraine right after the Soviet Union broke up. There is no evidence that they got the warheads by some other channel, but on the other hand they were highly motivated and Putin visited there just a few days back. Would they arm the Iranians to resist U.S. aggression if they had plausible denial? Yes, I think things are getting that crazy ...
Why is it that Mexico's oil exports will never increase again? Its a temporary shutdown because they can't dock their ships, much less load the oil and then ship it to the US.
Looks like the storm rolled over a few rocks and some doomer trolls popped out. Beware all!
Hmm - let see what the export rates are same day next year?
We all know Mexico is on a plateau/decline trend. They stated very specifically that the 1.1 million bpd that was exported to the US and has been halted completely will not come back. Are you suggesting they had a national 33% decline last week and thats it?
Mexico has just taken a Katrina sized or larger hit in Tabasco. Their emergency services are much less capable of handling such a thing than our own poxy FEMA, their people are under the gun due to declining remittances from the U.S., and the government is under the gun from declining oil revenues.
So they need the oil revenues they used to have in order to upgrade their plant to maybe get the oil revenues they used to have, and before they do that they need the oil revenues they used to have to bail out Tabasco ... but their oil is both declining and now shut in.
Does the U.S. tap the SPR to cushion for the missing oil, or does our incompetent government fail to execute again, or does it purposely fail because TPTB in the oil business want the Mexican direct investment block lifted?
I'll go back under my rock now ...
What's scary is trying to find news about the flooding.
You can't.
Anyone think that PEMEX has fixed this yet?:
Tabasco state officials said the pipeline had exploded, but that there were no deaths or injuries. The unnamed brigadier-general who spoke to a few Jewish journalists in Toronto on October 22 had his remarks posted on the Canadian Jewish News Web site. [19] Tabasco officials also reported that there was an explosion at a gas pipeline in the city of Huimanguillo, about 50 kms (30 miles) west of Villahermosa late Tuesday, but that the blaze had been brought under control by employees of the state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex.[9] MEXICO CITY Dozens of residents of an oil-rich capital on the Gulf of Mexico coast were evacuating their homes Wednesday after a river overflowed and began rushing through cracks in a containing wall following a week of rainstorms, Mexican news media reported Wednesday.[9] Gov. Andres Granier urged residents to evacuate the city where floodwaters reached the rooftops of homes.[5]
All the water that comes in has to be pumped out." Mr Granier said ..."
Or this?:
A 10in (25cm) natural gas pipeline sprung a leak after flooding apparently washed away soil underneath it, but it was unclear if other facilities operated by the state-run Petroleos Mexicanos were damaged.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens