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60 comments on Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts

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alan on November 19, 2007 - 2:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

A couple of comments

1)The graphs in figure 7 don't match.

2)Fig 13. Estimated Production Erosion annualized rates assuming that Saudi Arabia would have maintained production constant since 2005.

If you want to show remove the effects of Saudi Arabia' spare capacity (existent or not) from the graph you should keep its production constant (at 8.6 or 9.6 mbpd) during the entire period.

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Sam Foucher on November 19, 2007 - 5:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Re: The graphs in figure 7 don't match.

I don't see it, can you precise?

Re: If you want to show remove the effects of Saudi Arabia' spare capacity (existent or not) from the graph you should keep its production constant (at 8.6 or 9.6 mbpd) during the entire period.

It's a good idea, another suggestion is to estimate non-opec decline rates.

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alan on November 19, 2007 - 7:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I don't see it, can you be precise?

The scales on y-axis on the two graphs in figure 7 don't match, and the final value is -4 on the upper and -6 on the lower. It appears that you used the same data as in fig 13 for the upper graph of fig 7.

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Sam Foucher on November 19, 2007 - 8:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The scales don't match because one is the annual production loss (i.e. P(t+1)-P(t)) in mbpd and the other one is the decline rate per year in % (i.e. P(t+1)/P(t)*100-100). They look almost the same but they are not.

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60 comments on Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts

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