<Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? The Oil Drum WSJ Article - Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production>

60 comments on Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Stuart Staniford on November 19, 2007 - 3:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ok - that could well explain it. The EIA C&C line is the most negative of the four I used, so that would tend to give a higher base decline. I'll check quantitatively tonight.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Sam Foucher on November 19, 2007 - 5:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I've redone the calculation using the O&GJ dataset:

The regression is:

5.2963e+3 - 2.64 * Year
R2=0.8552

The 95% confidence interval for the slope is [-2.64 -2.62]. Still higher than yours, whereas using the EIA data I got:

5.7767e+3 - 2.88 * Year
R2=0.8657

The fit quality is slightly better with the EIA.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

60 comments on Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version