297 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2007
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297 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2007
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Contango! Check out the 2014 and 2015 crude light futures. They are finally swinging into contango. Has the market finally acknowledged peak oil or are those contracts slower to drop in price due to low volume?
I don't see it.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/quickquote.php3?sel=Crude+Oil
According to these figures December 2014 is at $83.91 and December 2015 is at $84.51. Now you may think that because 2015 is higher than 2014 that this means Contango. No, it does not. For it to be Contango then both would have to be higher than current December prices which closed yesterday at $94.46.
The market is still strongly in backwardation.
Ron Patterson
Thank you.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
When the newer long-dated contracts where introduced (for 2013 -2015), that part of the curve was in backwardation.
Somebody did an article on this a while back, noting the switch to the current shape. It's been steepening since.
Now we have contango from 2010 outwards and I do believe there's a good chance it's associated with peak oil.
Low prices way off in the future are measures of uncertainty.
When you can't predtict the price of oil from week to week, then how are you to predict the price five years from now?
Numbers mean nothing.
But basics do. How much oil is out there? How much do we need? How much will we get?
Not enough. Too much. Not enough.
I did inhale.
When you can't predict the price of oil from week to week, then how are you to predict the price five years from now?
Actually, it's often easier to predict long term trends than to nail short-term fluctuations.
Price means a lot. It will determine your life more than anything else.
How much we need is actually very subjective.