The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: November 9, 2007

297 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2007

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Asebius on November 9, 2007 - 11:54am

When the newer long-dated contracts where introduced (for 2013 -2015), that part of the curve was in backwardation.

Somebody did an article on this a while back, noting the switch to the current shape. It's been steepening since.

Now we have contango from 2010 outwards and I do believe there's a good chance it's associated with peak oil.

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unrepentantcowboy on November 9, 2007 - 12:02pm

Low prices way off in the future are measures of uncertainty.

When you can't predtict the price of oil from week to week, then how are you to predict the price five years from now?

Numbers mean nothing.

But basics do. How much oil is out there? How much do we need? How much will we get?

Not enough. Too much. Not enough.

I did inhale.

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Asebius on November 9, 2007 - 12:22pm

When you can't predict the price of oil from week to week, then how are you to predict the price five years from now?

Actually, it's often easier to predict long term trends than to nail short-term fluctuations.

Price means a lot. It will determine your life more than anything else.

How much we need is actually very subjective.

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297 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2007

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