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118 comments on Peak oil: BP, Conoco CEOs say it's here - also IEA's Fatih Birol really freaks out

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Jerome a Paris on November 11, 2007 - 12:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

BobC:

I understand what you say, but I think that what you are describing was the IEA's earlier position - flag the potential effect and urge OPEC to produce more. Now, they are saying that non-OPEC is in decline ("geological" fact), and that overall production is likely to be 12.5mb/d less than we expect it to be - in 7 years!, i.e. that it will be lower than today, unless some sort of miracle happens (ie Iran and Iraq investing massively; and SA pushing its production up).

It's even more negative than the CEOs, in my view, and pretty damn close to real PO.

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BobCousins on November 11, 2007 - 2:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Did they use the word miracle? No.

You are still reading what you want to hear, not what they said.

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Jerome a Paris on November 11, 2007 - 5:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, he does say that existing production will decline by 25mb/d by 2015, and will be replaced by 25 mb/d if all goes well:

And these are projects which are financially sanctioned projects. *If* they all see the light of the day *in a timely manner*, they will come up about 25 million barrels per day. So, 37.5 mlillion on the one hand, what is needed, and what we expect is 25 million barrels per day, and this is *in the case of no slippages, no delays in the projects*, and *everything goes on time, which is very rare*.

Lots of conditions for production just to remain flat... Fine, I said "miracle", but it's not really a stretch from his words.

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lilnev on November 11, 2007 - 3:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The way I read it, he foresees declines of 25 mbd from existing fields (2/3 of 37.5), offset by anticipated additions of 25 mbd. So he sees a supply plateau, not an actual decline. But also no growth to meet growing demand (i.e. a shift in the demand curve) unless OPEC does something surprising. Peak Lite, high prices.

The long-term numbers are pure fantasy. I expect he knows that, but can't speak to it until it becomes internal consensus at IEA, so he's putting the warning into the medium-term scenarios. It's pretty easy to extrapolate from questions about OPEC's medium-term capabilities, to even bigger questions about the even bigger increases that would be required in the long term, as non-OPEC continues to decline "geologically".

peace,
lilnev

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118 comments on Peak oil: BP, Conoco CEOs say it's here - also IEA's Fatih Birol really freaks out

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