Hi Leanan,

There are two possible causes for low crude inventory.

1. Demand for refined products is high.
2. Refiners see price/demand falling so start destocking crude. If they think the price will fall they will hold off.

The oil price slumped in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis happened because of destocking, and believe me, the economy is not doing well - the economists at the investment bank where I work see problems everywhere.

Maybe you are right, Leanan, but making money in the futures markets can never be easy. I'm back-pedalling from $100. It's just too neat and tidy for me. (I'm not a trader by the way!).

The causes for low inventory I'm thinking about are the disruption in Mexico due to weather (which will probably show up in the numbers this Thursday), and possibly shut-in production from Ursa and Mars (if the rumors are correct - Shell said they would issue a statement, but never did).