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333 comments on DrumBeat: November 13, 2007

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Sam Foucher on November 13, 2007 - 10:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There are a few good news in this report:
- Iraq is up: 1.99 (Aug) to 2.18 mbpd (Sept) which is the biggest increase in the OPEC-12.
- OPEC-10 is up a mere 0.05 mbpd
- OPEC-12 is up 0.25 mbpd
- China demand is cooling down a little bit (5.7% growth in 2007 compared to 6.9% in 2007).

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Darwinian on November 13, 2007 - 11:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Khebab, that OPEC 10 report is very interesting. I suspected as much but thought surely they would do a little better than that. Next month will be much worse because of the maintenance work in the UAE. But data from the other nine will be critical. If they don't do better in November, a lot better, the crap will hit the fan.

I would like to be a fly on the wall at the OPEC meeting this weekend. It may go something like this: "Hey, the world is expecting us to bail them out of this damn mess. But we are producing every barrel we possibly can. What the hell are we going to do? What can we possibly say that will not make us look like we have been lying all these years?"

Ron Patterson

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Sam Foucher on November 13, 2007 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
From the Platts article:
Country October September August July Nov. 1 Target
Algeria 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.357
Indonesia 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.865
Iran 3.9 3.88 3.88 3.9 3.817
Kuwait 2.45 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.531
Libya 1.71 1.7 1.69 1.68 1.712
Nigeria 2.19 2.18 2.15 2.15 2.163
Qatar 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.828
Saudi Arabia 8.8 8.7 8.66 8.61 8.943
UAE 2.6 2.59 2.59 2.56 2.567
Venezuela 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.47
OPEC-10 27.08 26.87 26.79 26.71 27.253
Angola* 1.75 1.72 1.68 1.67 NA
Iraq 2.28 2.17 1.99 2.12 NA
Total 31.11 30.76 30.46 30.5 NA

It looks like Iraq is saving the day again for OPEC in October also (+0.11 mbpd)!
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Darwinian on November 13, 2007 - 11:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well the data from Platts, MEES, the IEA, the EIA and all the others often varies wildly. OPEC's own "Monthly Oil Market Report" will be out Thursday. That will give the figures closest to what OPEC is actually producing.

Ron Patterson

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synchroGENized on November 13, 2007 - 11:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Do the numbers represent all production, just exports, or exports not including deals?

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Sam Foucher on November 13, 2007 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I suspect they are production numbers (crude oil + condensate).

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rainsong on November 13, 2007 - 4:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Add some more data to your November production forecast:

UAE to lose more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day during peak of November oilfield maintenance

On the other hand the UAE is supposed to have increased production following the maintenance.

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stiv on November 13, 2007 - 12:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Are you saying you believe this?
Seems like a bunch of lies?

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333 comments on DrumBeat: November 13, 2007

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