The Oil Drum | This Week in Petroleum 11-15-07

56 comments on This Week in Petroleum 11-15-07

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Moe_Gamble on November 15, 2007 - 12:21pm

Robert, you kind of have to watch it about trying to take a position within seconds after the report comes out. The market tends to shoot up or down very fast in the couple of minutes right after the report. If you place a limit order, it will probably not get filled. If you place a market order, it may get filled at a horrible price.

When the market is moving very fast, it's better to wait for the market to stabilize before putting in your order.

In a fast market, there's no liquidity--it just dries up. If the price is rising fast, sellers stop selling and wait for a higher price. If the price is falling fast, buyers wait until they think the selling has stopped.

The market will often overshoot right after the report, and then have a price reversal. That reversal is often a good time to make a move.

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Moe_Gamble on November 15, 2007 - 12:31pm

Also, remember, it's not just the inventory report that moves the price one way or another. Remember that traders are also thinking about which way the dollar is likely to move, what movements in the stock market are likely to do to the dollar, etc.

Also, remember that speculators often rely on signals that tell them when to buy or sell. They don't really buy or sell based on the inventory report, they watch other factors, like whether the price has risen or fallen to some longer-term moving average, or any number of other indicators or combination of indicators. For example, a very famous trading system that some large speculators are likely following has still not given a sell signal on oil.

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OilcoEx on November 15, 2007 - 5:09pm

there is enormous liquidity in WTI. I doubt Robert has enough umph to be able to put in an order big enough to have trouble getting a fill.

Even back in the days before electronic trading, you could call the floor guys and get an execution in seconds.

But I don't think the API/DOEs are good for much more than short term noise. They are horribly inaccurate. You really need to dig through them and compare rolling averages to see if they are actually saying anything meaningful.

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56 comments on This Week in Petroleum 11-15-07

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