<Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts The Oil Drum DrumBeat: November 20, 2007>

190 comments on WSJ Article - Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production

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FiniteQuantity on November 20, 2007 - 3:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

They've been proved wrong so often that their theory has become debased......

When one finger points to you, three point back at yourself.

Another key argument used by CERA to "prove" we have plenty of oil (in addition to "people have said were were 'running out' before") is to talk about how no one could have imagined cell phones. It then follows that technology will figure out how to get oil out of capped wells.

For numbers they like to include oil sands as if they were oil. Not sure if they include oil shale as if it is oil.

And probably the thing most key to a CERA or IEA argument against peak oil is faith. Faith that there is an incomprehensibly large amount of oil underneath Saudi Arabia and their neighbors. And faith that even though discoveries have been in decline for 40 years, that that is just a "short-term market correction".

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concerned on November 20, 2007 - 7:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How many times in the last five years were the oil shales going to be profitable, switch grass bio diesel, algae, solar, hydrogen?

Why are the Tar Sands of Canada producing such limited quantities of oil compared to their vast "reserves". (flow rates)

How many times was the oil price "not supported by the fundamentals"? (that is it should have been lower)

Lets not forget predictions have been going both ways. I have heard many predictions on MSM about current oil being overpriced and blaming Chavez, Putin, OPEC, Iraq war and anything else except for reduced supply.

Then we get the classic a few weeks ago that we don't have a supply problem it's a demand problem. *scratches head* I always thought they called it supply and demand. The keyword linking the two being AND but I guess when you can't stick a pipe into oil shales that have more oil than the middle east then yeah it's a demand problem *rolls eyes*

Right now today 19 November 2007, you would have to be quite satisfied if you were a believer in Peak Oil being sooner pre 2012 rather than later post 2020.

WSJ *yawn* still playing catch up from way way way behind.

May we live in interesting times :)

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Pitt the Elder on November 20, 2007 - 11:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

For numbers they like to include oil sands as if they were oil.

Of course they do - it is currently the source of large amounts of oil, after all.

It then follows that technology will figure out how to get oil out of capped wells.

It already has, to a certain extent - enhanced oil recovery technologies have allowed substantially more of the oil originally in place to be extracted than used to be the case.

If you're trying to make an argument that the peak oil theory is not debased, you need to carefully consider what you're going to say and what the real argument is.

Both of your arguments here are off the mark - peak oil is not about reserves. Peak oil is about flow rates, and it's clear to everyone that flow rates are restricted in tar sands (physically) and the Middle East (politically).

In many ways, the peaker obsession with the amount of recoverable oil remaining is a red herring - it really doesn't matter if there's enormous amounts of oil remaining if we can't access it. Many people are clearly resistant to the idea that not much oil is remaining - and for good reason, since you have poor evidence of that - but most people will agree with you that there are above-ground issues limiting the flow rate of oil right now, from political (OPEC quotas, unrest in Iraq/Nigeria, hostile climates in Venezuela/Iran) to physical (manpower and infrastructure capacity limits in the tar sands).

You may really, really believe that the world's used half its oil, but that's simply not the best way to talk about the subject.

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FiniteQuantity on November 20, 2007 - 11:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Of course they do - it is currently the source of large amounts of oil, after all.

They have reserves greater than Saudi Arabia per CERA. They are pumping astonishingly low amounts of oil if that is the case? Do you think they would benefit from increasing their rig count? Seems puzzling, such a large oil reserve and such a relatively low flow rate???

It already has, to a certain extent - enhanced oil recovery technologies have allowed substantially more of the oil originally in place to be extracted than used to be the case.

Has enhanced oil recovery stopped Mexico from peaking? Has it stopped the US from peaking? Has it stopped the North Sea from peaking?

Both of your arguments here are off the mark - peak oil is not about reserves. Peak oil is about flow rates, and it's clear to everyone that flow rates are restricted in tar sands (physically) and the Middle East (politically).

Well I hope CERA is reading that comment because they are the ones who talk about oil sands reserves being larger than Saudi Arabia without considering flow rate. You appeared to realize that and be defending them a few sentences ago.

Many people are clearly resistant to the idea that not much oil is remaining - and for good reason, since you have poor evidence of that

A peaking of oil production in the majority of oil producing nations is considered good evidence that "not much oil is remaining". A peaking of discoveries and gradual decline over a fourty year period is great evidence that "not much oil is remaining". Only a strong faith-based approach to oil discovery can counteract that. The faith is strong at CERA and the IEA and the mainstream media. Their faith is going to be severely tested as oil prices soar and oil production stagnates or declines. If it weren't such a looming disaster I would say that it is gonna be fascinating to see how long CERA, the mainstream media, the politicians, the average joes, etc., can keep the faith.

Many people are clearly resistant to the idea that not much oil is remaining - and for good reason, since you have poor evidence of that - but most people will agree with you that there are above-ground issues limiting the flow rate of oil right now, from political (OPEC quotas, unrest in Iraq/Nigeria, hostile climates in Venezuela/Iran) to physical (manpower and infrastructure capacity limits in the tar sands).

I don't believe that "above-ground issues" are limiting the flow rate. That's CERA and the mainstream media and the other faith-based oil prognosticators and pundits.

You may really, really believe that the world's used half its oil, but that's simply not the best way to talk about the subject.

I didn't say a word about what percentage of the oil has been used.

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Pitt the Elder on November 21, 2007 - 1:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Seems puzzling, such a large oil reserve and such a relatively low flow rate?

Only if you're being purposefully obtuse. Tar sands produce oil, but require more work than conventional wells to get the same amount of oil. Those two facts are not in conflict.

Has it stopped the US from peaking?

Bait-and-switch fallacy.

You talked about technology getting oil out of capped wells, so I talked about enhanced oil recovery, so now you're pretending we're talking about technology preventing a peak. Different topics.

You appeared to realize that and be defending them a few sentences ago.

Re-read what I wrote, then.

A peaking of oil production in the majority of oil producing nations is considered good evidence that "not much oil is remaining".

The listener gets to decide what constitutes "good evidence", not the speaker. You can insist you're providing "darn good intelligence" until you're blue in the face, but that won't make your points one iota more convincing.

For example:

A peaking of discoveries and gradual decline over a fourty year period

This backdating trick undercuts your point. Technological advances have allowed more oil to become recoverable than was originally possible, effectively adding "technological discoveries" of oil to the regular geological discoveries.

If we discovered no new oil but recovery rates increased over time to 100%, your method of plotting oil discoveries would show years and years of zeros even while remaining recoverable reserves were rising year after year. It should hardly be a surprise that that kind of evidence is less than fully convincing to everyone.

If it weren't such a looming disaster I would say that it is gonna be fascinating to see how long CERA, the mainstream media, the politicians, the average joes, etc., can keep the faith.

How long has Campbell "kept the faith"? He's been predicting imminent decline for, what, almost 20 years now?

It's a grave error to assume that someone who disagrees with you is irrational and mistaken.

I don't believe that "above-ground issues" are limiting the flow rate.

You're simply wrong. As the most obvious example, insurgents have been repeatedly targetting oil infrastructure in Iraq and Nigeria, keeping hundreds of thousands of barrels a day of existing production from being used.

You may believe that the key is below-ground issues - and you may be right - but don't let that blind you to reality. That you disagree with something an opponent says doesn't mean you must disagree with everything they say.

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Kiashu on November 20, 2007 - 8:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Reserves are significant because they put a definite limit on flow rates. When there's only 10% of a field left, the flow rate's going to be slow no matter what you do.

And when you're describing these things to people, if you never mention reserves, then they won't understand why flow rates can't be increased. There's a tendency for people to reply to knowledge of peak oil with, "well, perhaps we're short today, but tomorrow the price will go up and more will be produced, so nothing to worry about." Knowledge of reserves, and the interplay between reserves levels and flow rates, that changes that.

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190 comments on WSJ Article - Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production

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