187 comments on The Post Peak Car
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Yet, the people who remind us that there will always be some oil seem to fail to acknowledge the physics of a sphere in space:
FINITE LAND
FINITE FRESH WATER
FINITE CARRYING CAPACITY.
What is truly annoying is this belief that we all be living pretty much as we are except our cars will be small with electric engines. THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!
Those people who wish to squander cheap energy in order to perpetuate the techno-fantasy world are essentially sociopaths. They do not care about the holistic effect of continued technology use. They only care about feeding the infantile, grasping technophile's desire for cool stuff.
They would kill off the human species and a hell of a lot of other species just to be able to drive a little blue car with electricity.
INSANE!!!!
Cherenkov,
While I usually would not take the time to even reply to someone who refers to those who differ from his worldview as "sociopaths", what the heck, it's a long holiday weekend, so I will waste some time....
First, I notice you did not enter the discussion of whether peak oil means "no oil", and instead veered into other realms, other problems, essentially restructuring the issue. So be it.
You said "What is truly annoying is this belief that we all be living pretty much as we are except our cars will be small with electric engines. THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!"
Perhaps, but we may want to avoid "letting the perfect be the enemy of the good."
At this time, we have people driving large cars with large gasoline engines. While small cars with electric engines" may not be perfect, at this moment, even getting folks to move away from large cars with large engines is a tough enough hill to climb. "The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step" say the Budhist thinkers.....gee, they may be right.
"Those people who wish to squander cheap energy in order to perpetuate the techno-fantasy world are essentially sociopaths."
Leaving aside the name calling, the issue is transportation. This is not normally viewed as a sociopathic human desire but goes back to the roots of human history. That is why most early cities were built near rivers or the ocean. It explains the existance of canoes, sailing canoes, Chinese junks (exquisite engineering there!). It explains the sailing ships, the clipper ship, and finally, the change over to steam, the railroad, the steamships, and finally autonomous vehicles such as autos and trucks. Imagine that, 10,000 years of sociopathic desire for transport!
Now the time may come when people will give up the "sociopathic" need for autonomous transportation. They may have to. If communal transport is truly efficient, safe and comfortable, they may even want to. But that may be awhile away. In the meantime, the attempt at seeking at least a less wasteful path does not seem "sociopathic".
The other three issues you hurled out were,
FINITE LAND
FINITE FRESH WATER
FINITE CARRYING CAPACITY
First, on carrying capacity. I do not know what the carrying capacity of the Earth is. I suspect you do not either, but if you do, I applaud your wisdom.
Population in the developed world, minus immigration, is flat or dropping.
One assumes that if access to birth control and cultural barriers were reduced in the rest of the world, this would be the case there to. Either way, it's connection to using electric cars seems to be only this: If we can use small electric engines instead of giant gasoline engines, the carrying capacity of the Earth may be enhanced.
On fresh water, I am not certain that automobiles are the prime user of fresh water in the world. If I am wrong, correct me.
Much fresh water is wasted, indeed. Simple measures such as low water use toilets, efficient showerheads, and grey water systems can save a great deal of water. Less wasteful water use in agriculture, water recycling in industry, and better catch and use of rainwater all could have huge effects. Would it not make more sense to encourage those than going on wild attacks against mobility? Just a thought.
Finite land. Again, I am certain that highways are not the prime consumer of land. However, it is true that enhanced use of transport makes "urban sprawl" a greater possibility, as we see in sub-urbanization. However, it would be very hard to push the total population back into city centers, as some seem to hope for. The overcrowding was what helped many folks want to leave the city centers to begin with. With a larger population, it would make the Warsaw ghetto seem almost humane by comparison to the city centers we would have if we attempted to force the population back into them. Honestly, many would fight to the death to avoid such a fate.
Verticalization and somewhat greater density in many areas would reduce land use, and of course, more efficient farming practices could create food on hopefully as few acres as is needed for the job. Again, we seem to be veering greatly away from the idea of greater efficiency automobles.
"They do not care about the holistic effect of continued technology use."
?????????????
I can only assume that you must mean that what is needed is a ceasing of "continued technology use". This of course is the "primitivist" and "anarcho-green-primitivist" dream. I will leave it to you to attempt to persuade the rest of the world they must abandon all technology, which for many would mean instant or near instant death. Many will fight you to the death, because to accept your agenda would mean death. They would have nothing to lose.
But, it is your right to attempt to gain converts to your cause. I will not wish you luck on this venture, however, as I am one for whom it would mean a very short lifespan.
You would think I have gone long enough, but I must address one absolutely fascinating thing. The absolute fascinating raw hatred of individual transporation. What causes exactly that to draw out such passionate hatred?
I was talking to a woman the other day, and mentioned that I had used the air conditioning in my home only about 4 days last summer, when I had guests, a summer that was quite hot. She very quickly said that hers was on ALL summer. Even though she was out of the house most of the time, she said, she had cats, and they could not survive a closed house in those hot summer months. Likewise, the house must be kept comfortably warm for the cats in the winter, meaning she does not turn down the thermostat. Think of that, heating and cooling a 3000 plus square foot home for a couple of cats!!
I began to think about the "sacred cows" of humans that escape the raw passionate hate that is reserved only for the automobile:
Pets. How much do they consume in heat, air conditioning, food, medical attention?
Lawns: Speaking of your freshwater, pesticides, herbicides, land. Millions of acres of carefully cultivated land that produces grass clippings!
Appearance: Jewelry, accessories, clothing, leather goods, cosmetics. How much consumed in mining for metals, pearls, silver and gold, gems, animals for leather goods, handbags, billfolds, chemicals for cosmetics?
Exotic foods and wines. So varied I cannot even hope to explain.
Excess packaging on all of the above.
Vacations. How many years would it take for the "little blue techno toy" to match what an airliner would use going to Europe from the U.S. one time?
Do you see what I mean? It is the automobile alone that is the target of an almost psychopathic (opps, I'm getting into your turf :-), hatred.
Is it really the energy use that is the issue? Or is it the idea of personal mobility, the freedom to leave one place and go to another, to seek employment and education at some distance? Does the idea of people, regular people having some freedom to move about strike something deep in the elitist psyche? What exactly....it's an interesing line of thought, indeed...
Oh well, enough fun for tonight! :-)
Great comments Roger. While I understand Cherenkov's frustration with our unsustainable living arrangement, I can only see changes coming in a multitude of small steps, such as the ones to which you refer. The value of this electric car is not as single point solution, but as a foundation for further changes, and as one of many ways to live more sustainably. I think it is more important to laud those things that move us in a positive direction than to criticize them for not meeting ideals. Good job ugo, keep it up.
budr
Thanks, Budr. Very interesting comment, Roger
If there was hatred of personal mobility, then maybe 150 years ago there were elitists who hated horses and all that they represented?
Seriously, this is the second time you mention elitist hatred for ordinary man having a car and thus, personal freedom (first time you referred to Kunstler). You made me think because since I've learned about PO and related energy issues, I started to feel more and more disgusted about cars and car culture in general. Before that, I was thinking of buying a large, new car. Did I become an elitist?
Then it occurred to me that the problem is not in the base premise but in what it degraded to-instead of personal freedom and mobility, you get freedom of crawling through crowded streets in attempt to get to work. If you live in the city where there are never enough parking lots or garages, you have freedom to wander the streets looking for place to park. And as list of "freedoms" goes on, you start to wonder: Is it really worth it?
One other thing that bothers me is inequality and injustice. What about personal freedom and mobility for citizens of poor countries? Is it possible that all 6,5 billion people have a car and "leave one place and go another"? Aren't we all hypocrites and elitists when we believe it is our natural right to have a car that runs on cheap fuel and costs us no more than 10% of our budget?
I would change my mind about all this if I see that it's possible for all the people to have such freedom and that freedom doesn't cost us our environment and the planet. It is nice to believe that maybe if we all drove nice little Fiat with electric engine, everything would be OK. Let's hope..
The issue is do we want as soft a landing as possible, or a hard landing. Anything we can implement today to lesson the effects of the crash will be far less scocipathic than wanting a severe crash.
Irrelevant. World population is increasing, and that is pouring over into developed countries through immigration, that then opens the door for more population growth in developing countries that are now over populated. Allowing for immigration is actually making our over population problem worse.
Richard Wakefield
It's an old Internet truism that you can spot the crazies by their use of capitals and excessive exclamations.
Try that for INSANE Bob.
Rather than look at the nature of personal vehicles and the environment they engender you lot will take the world to the cliff and drive it over in cute little Disneyesque blue vehicles. (plus a FF engine for 'climate control', code I guess for air conditioning?)
A few pen strokes could change zoning and 'city' planing and relatively quickly eliminate the need for those personal energy and material draining devices, but that is not being even considered, much better to build little blue tech band-aids and decry those like Cherenekov who get apoplectic when suffering the idiotic.
I think the copper could be better used in Alan Drakes Trams and trains , what do you think?
I am not under the delusion that what I think will make any difference whatsoever. Nor will the recommendations of a few concerned activists stop the masses wanting personal mobility. It is truly idiotic to think that engineers have any real influence on how people behave.
Technology is a red herring, the elephant in the room is overpopulation. The "technology" to solve that (i.e. birth control) is already in place.
Ask Cherenkov what he is doing about population growth. You will find he has more children than I have.
You have children? I have child:)
Still one more than me ;)
Bob,
I also have no children. So far the combined output of myself and my siblings (4 of us in total) has been 3 children.
The other day I counted and the combined output of all my cousins is less by a fair number than the total of the cousins! We're shrinking! :-)
(I recently saw an interview where it was stated that Matthew Simmons had 4 daughters....I said, no wonder he's worried! :-)
Now, how about pets? :-)
(I have none)
RC
I had 23 uncles and aunts and a dozen cousins, my son has one uncle and no cousins. Terrible time to be born into...alone at the end of the world.
Bob Cousins,
Regarding capitalization. Gosh, I hope you are not saying that punctuation and capitalization are more important than arguing my points, because that would make you the crazy one.
On population growth. Yes, I have two children.
Given your take on technology, I must presume you also lead me in indirect deaths through technological mayhem. That is the irony of such bad thinking. Overpopulation is indeed the elephant in the room. However, you use it as a cudgel to beat those who do not agree with you.
I am actually an advocate for several measures to counter population growth. Fortunately, my humanistic take of life means I will be unwilling to accept the technophile solution of "just keep going out on the limb and hope it don't break." But, break it will. Whereas my solution is the spread of free birth control, anti-growth education, and the immediate reduction of fossil fuel use ala Heinberg's protocol, your solution seems to be, "Hyuck, hyuck, hyuck. Us engimageers cain't possibly have no influgance on no people. That would be just dumb. Let's keep a usin' stuff up and see what happens."
Euphemism Check..
What's wrong with Band Aids? You use that term with a sneer, but if we're suffering this death of a thousand cuts, don't you think a few BandAids might be a useful part of the solution? Yes, we need to think about the Big Picture, too.. but in the meantime, will you be riding in no more vehicles at all? Will you ride in a vehicle that continues to Bleed Petroleum out of our future supply, or will you use some Band Aids where you can?
When you call them 'Cute' (and even your use of 'Little'), you are clearly suggesting that they are useless, irrelevant. The people they carry are Not belittled versions of the millions who have to travel to be part of their daily lives. There are surely those who are heading straight at the cliff. But the People developing these vehicles ('You Lot') are clearly trying to turn away from that fall.
Lots of Copper - Should certainly be used for Alan's plans.. but ALL of it? None of these solutions solves the WHOLE problem, does it? So taking ALL the materials from these vehicles and putting it ALL into the plan you endorse is part of this mentality that still wants to find that mystical ONE thing that will solve it all.. an Understandable, but Unreachable Fantasy. Just like the question high on this Topic that asks if there is enough Lithium to make Hundreds of Millions of vehicles, with the clear implication that 'Your Plan Fails, because it will not replace ALL vehicles'.. An unhelpful direction to take these discussions, resting only on Hyperbole and Extremes.
Bob
Cherenkov does get Apoplectic AND Idiotic AND Infantile when he rants against things he sees as Idiotic and Infantile. I know the challenge of trying to exercise patience with someone who is being IMpatient.., trying to be Mature in the face of a childish conflict.. it's not easy and I hope Cherenkov notices it when he's drawn into this kind of 'Mirror Behavior', as I hope I can keep from being Drawn In myself. Sometimes I manage it..
Thanks, Jokuhl.
I don't need anyone to apologize for my rants.
I am truly tired of the calm talk. The valium talk. The blah, blah, blah, until we all go to sleep while the "adults" accomplish plenty of talk, but no action, or worse, the wrong action.
Infantile is an entire society based on growth, a gimme, gimme, gimme society of little baby hands all opening and closing for what they feel is justly theirs.
Infantile is a country that allows its corporations to put dangerous cancer causing chemicals into its products while Europe bans such products.
Infantile is a bunch of people who feel that they are so important that the rest of the species on the planet can just go bugger off.
Infantile is a user mentality that uses up the planet, uses up different cultures, uses up people. An infant is a user which we tolerate for a time. Why do we tolerate all the "adult" users who keep whining and crying for their toys no matter how quickly it kills the planet, no matter how many future generations suffer horrible lives and deaths.
All of this because we cannot make a plan to stop growth, to stop the cancer, to stop our planet-killing juggernaut. All this because we need a little blue car to haul our fat butts around.
I do not get either idiotic or infantile. Apoplectic, yes. The others no. My points are irrefutable. Physics is on my side. That I choose to mock, to be sarcastic, to be willing to actually call things as they really are, is a calculated ploy. If I return to the somnolent murmurings of the sleepy-headed sheep who keep trying to figure out how to keep the techno-dream going, then I BECOME ONE OF YOU!!!!!
A DAMNED ENABLER!!
Then I would become just like you, one of the "good" Germans who looked the other way while the NAZIs plucked people off the street and beat dissenters to death.
The time to be LOUD is NOW!!!
NOW, while we still have time. Not when the plane is traveling 600 miles per hour towards the ground with only sixty feet left.
NOW!!!!!
Sorry, if my caps made any of the feebleminded here lose track of my points. Perhaps if you weaned yourself from the MSM for a few weeks, you could blow out the pipes and think straight for once.
Cherenkov;
Now is the time. Absolutely. But is it the time to shriek at the people who post on TOD that they are 'The Good Germans'? Actually, we could do worse than trying to be as good as the Germans today.. but I know the ones you meant. Who do you think is posting here? What do you think these people are like in their real lives, and not in the caricatures that these silly names become in our imaginations?
I do hope that if you are so tired of this ongoing Talk-talk, that part of your solution is not just to scream instead. You probably have at least a glimmer of a suspicion in your boiling head that while the short-term effect of yelling is that it turns some heads your way, that the next response if the hollering keeps up, is to move away or at the very least, to STOP listening. So do you have any actions that you feel are worth working towards? Planting food, Teaching Neighbors, Reducing your own consumption.. or are you so concerned that you, like us 'Might be taking an errant step in the wrong direction by trying ANYTHING..' that you've concluded it's better not to do anything except rail against any internet post you object to?
You are not screaming at the mainstream here.. don't believe it. Priviledged, largely Westerners with computers, I'll grant that.. but this is not a crowd that is lulled into a drowsy complacency..
"The blah, blah, blah, until we all go to sleep while the "adults" accomplish plenty of talk, but no action, or worse, the wrong action." - I've heard examples of a great many of the posters here taking real actions, whether it's on their own consumption, on policies and projects, on outreach (which is talk, to be sure.. but you won't hear it if you're expecting anything effective to be broadcast with the Knob turned up to Eleven)
I'm not nuts about insisting that you are infantile.. I actually think infants are very smart and aware, and have largely not yet learned or been forced to shut down or get buried in restimulated ranting and addictions as many older members of our society have had to, what with all the brutality and dishonesty that we grow up within. Infants cry and bawl because they need to get it out.. (probably a lot more when birthed with Western 'Medical Emergency' techniques) so it's actually very appropriate and healthy for them to do so.
"...you could blow out the pipes and think straight for once." You've been blowing out your pipes all along, as far as I can see, and yet Straight is not a word I would use to describe your thinking. You do see what's going on, and I hardly disagree with your points about how broken our basic system is.. but you use it like the hammer seeing everything as a nail to bash. Where will this get you?
Bob
Reading your post again..
'Feebleminded' -
There it is.. it's like people who overuse the MF'er because it seems to sound strong. Do you think that using a lot of Caps and Exclamation marks is an indication that you are NOT being feebleminded?
It's just the opposite.. you continue to weaken your argument and your reputation when you have to synthetically bolster your words that way.. and it seems to be obvious to everyone but you yourself.
Bob
No, we get your point perfectly. You are saying "I am a raving lunatic and I need medical help".
Back in the old days, mentally deranged people would stand in the street yelling at passers by, now they do it on the internet. Plus ca change.
Johkul,
Bandaids are okay used in the right places but if we use them to cover our asses that merely implies an obvious result:)
Those little cars will merely distract and not solve anything and while Drakes solution is better, I doubt that it will in itself solve anything but at least it is headed in the right direction. We are at a point where lifeboat drill is the order of the day but the captain and his crew are drunk and disorderly and the passengers talking of the days amusements. This time it's a festival about tootling about in little blue autos.
Cherenkov might look idiotic and infantile waving and shouting that a big Fossile Fuel behemoth is bearing down on us but less idiotic than those who just send up a lot of piss and wind . Also I like Cherenekov's humour and sense of the ludicrous. I remember a bit of childhood doggerel, to wit:
Gene gene made a machine,
Joe Joe made it go,
Art art blew a fart and
blew the whole machine apart.
We need the art of Cherenekov and his like or Gene's machine will bury us.
"This time it's a festival about tootling about in little blue autos."
No. It's about getting to work without burning oil.. the existence of motorized vehicles is not the problem, it's the misuse/overuse of an otherwise useful tool, running on a dirty and limited fuel source.
We've gotten spoiled by cheap energy into the assumption that we can live with a MUCH greater reach in our daily travels than can be supported. That doesn't mean that cars are intrinsically evil, any more than money would be. It also doesn't mean that everybody will own a car, or even want one as the costs start becoming more realistic.. but it might be that an extended family would own a car, a scooter and a small pickup amongst a dozen or more people, if that's what the economics allowed. Electric vehicles might be carrying Actual Band-Aids, and getting people to hospitals, tho' they'd of course have to settle for 'Toodling' to the hospital, as driving would apparently no longer be possible.
I did like the Fart poem. Thanks for that.
My problem with Cherenkov is that I think his online Persona is wasting a lot of energy, and not having a very useful effect (lousy traction, excessive friction).. while I know that he does have 'some' fans.. it's poor EROEI.. it bugs me, especially since it detracts from other posters' energy as well. He seems to paint this as being the 'rebel truthteller'.. the points themselves are valid, but the volume pushes people away, and I think, devalues the argument in doing so. It's like an abuse of power, where the net result is you're just making your work harder and harder.
Bob
"Theres a place in the world for the angry young man
With his working class ties and his radical plans
He refuses to bend, he refuses to crawl,
Hes always at home with his back to the wall.
And hes proud of his scars and the battles hes lost,
And he struggles and bleeds as he hangs on the cross-
And he likes to be known as the angry young man."
- Billy Joel
If anyone is pissing into the wind, it's Cherenkov.
Sorry, but is also about the infrastructure that makes the automobile lifestyle possible. That cement don't come cheap in FF use nor does all the asphalt and assorted traffic toys as well as the restrictions to sensible modes of travel from walking to rail all screwed by the dependence on personal (NOT PUBLIC) FF transportation devices.
Well let me know when the second coming happens but until then I don't see that there is any poster or group of posters here who can be all things to all men, each of us can have a part to play and I think Cherenkov plays one and does it well, if loudly. Maybe wakes up the dozing, maybe attracts new blood maybe makes you look at what it is that disturbs you by his action. I don't think the problem is fossil fuel or energy and how it is used or even Cherenkov as you seem to think:), I think the problem is US.
For one thing we tend to think our opinions are us and doing that makes them immutable and that makes change very difficult. I think that holds for myself as well as most, if not all, posters here.
Hey Cherenekov, sorry about using your body for a battle ground but needs must as the devil drives :)
I have no problem with opposing the burden we've set up for ourselves, the way our roads and highways are constructed, and the sheer mass of them, at this point.. but as with Population, these will crumble and fade down to a lower level as our energy drops..
that is still not to say, and it would be silly to suggest that we will stop using wheels and motors to move ourselves and our supplies from place to place, and that we will have paths, streets and roads to do it with. As our Legacy load of monster trucks and old I-beams find their way to the smelters, there will be a supply of metals that will be going into rail, into cars of some sort or another- certainly not your daddy's oldsmobile.
A buildout of intercity and intervillage rail is essential, and it's probably inevitable.. just long overdue. But there will be lots of things to move around where there aren't tracks available. I'll bet that a whole LOT of them will be little electric vehicles.. and some of them will be blue.
The article in Drumbeat about Chicago making their alleyways out of Porous Concrete and Asphalt was interesting. Our roads will be fewer and a lot of lanes narrower, and will probably start to get made from other things, including back to dirt and gravel in many many places. But there will still be roads. Do you doubt that?
Bob
You may very well be right, but personally I am hoping for quiet paths in the forest for my sons child, when he has one, and Ayahuasa in his medicine pouch to keep him on that path.
In between as you seem to say just NOISE!!! AND STUFF!!! and likely a lot of blue things, I think mostly people though:)
BTW here is something my wife just noticed about the UN talking about Iceland being the best place to live. Hmmm wonder how many little blue cars in Iceland?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071127/lf_nm_life/un_development_index_dc
If not many now, probably many in the near future. With high-temperature geothermal resources to provide electricity, Iceland could be the first FF-free country in the developed world if/when it switchs to all electric transportation. That should add to it's no. 1 ranking for quality of life.
The Blue one is on the second row...
"BR Car Rental has been in operation for over 20 years and has for that period always provided good services and high quality cars.
"There are many thing unique about driving in Iceland. Many rural roads in Iceland are gravel roads not suited to fast driving. Please drive carefully and show other road-users consideration at all times.
http://www.randburg.com/is/cars/
"BR-Car rental is located only 5 minutes from the Keflavik International Airport."
re: Noise!!! .. remember, with an electric car, it's only Noise!
Best, Bob
(My wife just told me I look really sexy when I'm doing the dishes for her. I asked her if she would tell me that I look really sexy when I'm on 'The Oil Drum'.. just try it on for size? But she wasn't buyin'..)