Okay Dissident, but what is Russian production doing? Have they plateaued or is production still increasing from one and one half percent to two percent per year? Or, are thy in slow decline.

But a better question would be; just how the hell can we tell?

Ron Patterson

Judging by all of the press clippings they are in a plateau state or going into one. But I do not see any evidence for 15% production drops that would explain shortages.