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This site and other peak oil sites discuss differences between sea-bed oil extraction and dry land extraction. The sea-bed cases have quicker decline rates. US oil production certainly has not mirrored the North Sea. The US is a more realistic analogue for Russia than the North Sea. It is not credible that Russian oil exports could decline 15% in few months for geological reasons. The export land model does not apply either since there has been no spike in domestic demand that would eat into exports on this scale. The validity of ELM and future natural production declines are besides the point for the current shortage and oil export drop situation.
Yes...and NO!
Yes, it will not drop 15% in a few months, and it's model will not *normally* mirror a sea-bed extraction.
However, the age (very old) and state of fields suggests *strongly* that Russian fields will decline rapidly and at a greater rate than a well managed group of fields.
I don't think ELM is relevant to the immediate comment.