The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: November 23, 2007

260 comments on DrumBeat: November 23, 2007

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Substrate on November 23, 2007 - 10:29am

This is terrible news...

I have just heard from his brother the sad news that

Samsam Bakhtiari has died.

A great man and a great loss.

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mcgowanmc on November 23, 2007 - 11:12am

I wondered that he had stopped his comments
abruptly.

Bakhtiari was a prophet.

Dr. Bakhtiari:

Dear Barbara,

First and foremost, thank you for your best wishes for the future of Iran and the very brave Iranian people. They deserve it.

Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of 'them') and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn't care less about 'peak oil' --- and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest...

1) I really don't know how it came about that I am the only OPEC (and Middle Eastern) expert on
'peak oil'. Certainly neither political leaders nor company officials ever guided or encouraged me unto this path (to the contrary). I kind of stumbled on Dr. Campbell's work in 1995 (his days at PetroConsultants) and since ... I have come all this long way (thanks mainly to the Internet). I still have to take from my personal yearly leave of absence and find a sponsor in order to be able attend international conferences. I finance part of my research out of "Letter from Tehran" income.

2) I really don't know why I am so singular within OPEC (although I am not a very common individual, with a eventful past). Maybe the others are told to shut up and do so for their own good (and benefits). I will always speak out.

Well, I hope you were able to read between the lines, because although none of 'them' speaks or reads English, someone (among the Western puppet-masters) might call 'them' to attention. Now, the seemingly apparent contradictions might be beginning to make some sense.."

Full Q&A circa 2004 here:

http://www.energybulletin.net/2303.html

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b3NDZ3La on November 23, 2007 - 11:39am

My two-cent tribute.

I simply adored his style.

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jokuhl on November 23, 2007 - 11:45am

Remember in the story of 'The Emperor's new Clothes', that the people mostly were willing to tell the Big Jefe that his outfits were astonishing.. (not from obedience, but from fear of ridicule)

Will the new 'fairly tale' be
"The emperor has no reserves." ?

Bob

"Many years ago, there lived an emperor who was quite an average fairy tale ruler, with one exception: he cared much about his clothes. One day he heard from two swindlers named Guido and Luigi Farabutto that they could make the finest suit of clothes from the most beautiful cloth. This cloth, they said, also had the special capability that it was invisible to anyone who was either stupid or not fit for his position.

Being a bit nervous about whether he himself would be able to see the cloth, the emperor first sent two of his trusted men to see it. Of course, neither would admit that they could not see the cloth and so praised it. All the townspeople had also heard of the cloth and were interested to learn how stupid their neighbors were.

The emperor then allowed himself to be dressed in the clothes for a procession through town, never admitting that he was too unfit and stupid to see what he was wearing. He was afraid that the other people would think that he was stupid.

Of course, all the townspeople wildly praised the magnificent clothes of the emperor, afraid to admit that they could not see them, until a small child said:

"But he has nothing on!"

This was whispered from person to person until everyone in the crowd was shouting that the emperor had nothing on. The emperor heard it and felt that they were correct, but held his head high and finished the procession. "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor's_New_Clothes

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hardhat on November 23, 2007 - 5:53pm

I owe a debt of gratitude to Dr. Bakhtiari. Like every good scientist I have ever known, he did everything in his power to lead the rest of us to better pasture.

I am afraid of what this implies.

The people of this world have lost one of our best. I pray God welcome him home and say "well done".

Steve

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PaulusP on November 23, 2007 - 11:57am

I understand he is one of the more pessimistic PO-alarmbell-ringers. I also understand that all his predictions so far were spot on.

With his track record, this is indeed a major loss. For the entire world. His 4 phases of transition (see Substrates link) can be taken as a guide for the future. Read it.

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Leanan on November 23, 2007 - 12:12pm

Yes, his prediction is still one of the best, in Khebab's "spaghetti" production graphs. Pretty impressive, considering his is one of the older forecasts.

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PaulusP on November 23, 2007 - 12:19pm

There is one line in that graph I really don't get. I've inquired before but still don't understand.

It's that light green line going in to orbit, never to come back. If it is Koppelaars'as indicated in the legenda, why is it not coming down? Rembrandt say PO in 2012-2015. It looks more like IEA's or CERA's to me.

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Leanan on November 23, 2007 - 12:29pm

I would guess that that forecase simply stopped before it came down, not that it's never coming down.

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PaulusP on November 23, 2007 - 4:03pm

Then why is it included in this graph?

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Leanan on November 23, 2007 - 4:11pm

Why not? It's a forecast of future production.

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PaulusP on November 23, 2007 - 4:38pm

Well, it doesn't come down in the graphs' timeframe. Who's forecast is it? And it is really not much of a forecast anyway. This green line runs out of sight in 2010

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Leanan on November 23, 2007 - 5:10pm

I think the forecast was just "no peak before 2012." That is a forecast that is of interest, and it doesn't mean Koppelaar thought there would never be a peak.

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graywulffe on November 23, 2007 - 12:23pm

Sad, sad news!

Yes, his style was wonderful. I found his essay "A Century of Roots" to be prticularly perceptive and moving.

He will be missed.

graywulffe

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Leanan on November 23, 2007 - 1:24pm

It has been posted on his web site:

Dear friends and associates,

Regrettably we inform you that Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari passed away in October month 2007.

Dr. Samsam-Bakhtiari's funeral and burial ceremony took place in Tehran, Iran.

We thank you in advance for supporting our father's objectives during his career. All inquiries may be directed to *****.

Sincerely,

Golbenaz & Amir Bahman Samsam Bakhtiari
Vancouver B.C. 2007

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ChrisN on November 23, 2007 - 5:54pm

He will be sorely missed. He was one of my favorites, and one of the best. Any info on cause of death...or why it took 3+ weeks for the news to reach us?

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Aniya on November 24, 2007 - 10:56pm

...To add my voice to the many here, and extend heartfelt sympathy to Samsam Bakhtiari's family. I found his work to reflect an integrity and sense of care I admired.

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