136 comments on Application of the Dispersive Discovery Model
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My suggestion is rather the reverse.
Take out of the base data the effect of known factors, then model the now simpler data. No mathematical equation will match the discontinuous actions of politics and economics - but take them out and you have a chance.
Once you have the model, add the effects back in.
I understand your point. The step changes I think are very deterministic and happen at the last stage of the process, which is why I call them shocks. Everything else about the model is stochastic (one could argue about the power-law growth term, but everything has to have a driving force). So if I could divine what the extractive step changes are, preferably from some real world source, like corporate records or OPEC dictates, I certainly would be more satisfied. Apart from that, having a reasonable set of dimensional parameters that derive from some simple physical models helps to fill in the rest of the puzzle.