I'll repeat a statement made a few times before. If you want to use maths to predict/understand oil production/discoveries etc. then you need to explicitly 'reverse out' the impact of political and economic decisions.

But surely you first need to know what will happen if politics is ignored? In this case the politics is a response to the inexorable mathematics of the situation, so you need to establish the mathematically "perfect" situation first.

The politics then changes the situation, but to understand what the politics will do, we need to first understand what happens without politics.

And don't forget that it's possible to go back to mature fields and use techniques like streamline simulation to figure out where to drill production and injection wells to recover more oil... Prof. Akhil Datta-Gupta of Texas A&M University predicts that using this method there are 200 billion barrels that are economically recoverable from mature fields in the Continental US alone. He's recently published a book which includes a CDROM with streamline simulation software (and perhaps source code...):

(from http://www.rigzone.com/store/product.asp?p_id=1842)
Streamline Simulation
Author: Akhil Datta-Gupta and Michael J. King
Format: Softcover
Pages: 394
ISBN: 978-1-55563-111-6
Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers
Year Published: 2007
Item Number: 100-1842

Availability: In Stock $149.00

Streamline Simulation: Theory and Practice provides a systematic exposition of current streamline simulation technology—its foundations, historical precedents, applications, field studies, and limitations. This textbook emphasizes the unique features of streamline technology that in many ways complement conventional finite-difference simulation. The book should appeal to a broad audience in petroleum engineering and hydrogeology; it has been designed for use by undergraduate and graduate students, current practitioners, educators, and researchers. Included in the book is a CD with a working streamline simulator and exercises to provide the reader with hands-on experience with the technology.

Contents: Introduction and Overview • Basic Governing Equations • Streamlines, Streamtubes, Streamfunctions, and Simulation • Applications: Field Studies and Case Histories • Transport Along Streamlines • Spatial Discretization and Material Balance • Timestepping and Transverse Fluxes • Streamline Tracing in Complex Cell Geometries • Advanced Topics: Fluid Flow in Fractured Reservoirs and Compositional Simulation • Streamline-Based History Matching and the Integration of Production Data

"...so you need to establish the mathematically "perfect" situation first."

“Poli” a Latin word meaning “many”.

Politics is the lubrication of the "maths" model.

Nothing happens w/o politics.

To take politics out is to say "why do we need algebra. We'll never use it."