Well - I'd go for a third option myself.

I'm not in any way a fan of shale oil but there is no point pretending it doesn't exist if it does turn out to be practical.

At some point, if it does get up, it will have to be killed off with carbon taxes otherwise we will be toast - but that will be a hard battle to fight in light of peak (regular crude) oil unless we manage to get some momentum behind a shift to electric transport and renewables (or nuclear).

Yes, I think unless we have some killer carbon tax we'll get fuel from tar sands, shale, gas to liquid, coal to liquid just to keep the motorists happy.

I've resigned from my state Automobile Association because of their outrageous and relentless promotion of the car culture with more travel, more holidays, more roads, lower fuel taxes etc.

They even had ads at bus stops with the theme "Wouldn't you rather be driving?"

I too am open minded about nuclear. If the choice is to be certain toast and complete breakdown of civilisation or risk nuclear I would risk nuclear.

Thousands more people have been killed by hydro accidents than nuclear.

Actually I'm not open minded about nuclear at all - I think building nuclear plants would be a foolish waste of money.

But that doesn't make it any less likely to happen than producing oil from shale...