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I guess the next question is whether the EROI indicates that the Fayetteville shale is a good future resource or a likely example of receding horizons?
I think EROI is really the major issue. Barnett shale gas seems to be non-economic at today's prices. Would it also be non-economic at higher prices? There seems to be a huge amount of shale gas available in other locations as well. We might produce it, if it makes economic sense to do so, but we can't otherwise.
Another issue is the lack of long-term data. At this point, the whole operation is more like an experiment than a well planned out investment. We really don't know how much fracing will be required over a thirty year period, and what later years of production will look like. Even if we get the results from the first wells, we can't be sure that the situation is sufficiently similar from location to location (even within Barnett shale) that we can expect the same results elsewhere.
You would never know that Barnett shale was non-economic from the number of drilling rigs that are all over North Texas. They are every where. Several on the fringes of DFW Airport. John
I suspect the operators are all banking on much higher gas prices, pretty soon, and for the long term. Otherwise their behaviour doesn't make much sense.
Does the economic model require them to keep developing and producing wells, even at a loss, to keep the machine ticking over while they await higher prices?
My understanding is its fairly easy to shut-in gas wells and common since storage is limited. Gas in general is produced on a more as needed basis vs oil. But it makes more sense to wait. I'd have to guess a lot of these wells where drilled anticipating higher prices now not in the future.