296 comments on DrumBeat: December 5, 2007
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296 comments on DrumBeat: December 5, 2007
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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05dowd.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Seven Days in December?
By MAUREEN DOWD
Published: December 5, 2007
Gotta love this part...especially the last paragraph.
George W. Bush has great disdain for intelligence. And no respect for the CIA.
"Bush" and "intelligence" in the same sentence is an oxymoron.
Of course we have to remember that the very notion that this is all a "terrible mistake" is just another phony excuse. The ME is all about the oil and it has been for 100 years. We went into the ME because world oil production is peaking. Period.
But we'll never see that printed in the New York Times.
Never is a very long time. I could see such talk at some point in the distant future, when the NYT is looking back at current time period retrospectively.
Interesting. I can see a world without the New York Times at all.
And not in the distant future.
key word there is "moron"
Over at LATOC, Matt posted an article called
American kids, dumber than dirt
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/10/24/notes102407.DTL
about how student's mental abilities have radically deteriorated over the years. Perhaps kids are being underestimated, though. Perhaps with GHB as a role-model, they know what it takes to succeed in the US.
Yep, Prez'dint GHB, named after the date-rape drug.....
Oops! I guess I find the guy so repugnant I even zoned his name....
This is why we have off-shored all of our manufacturing - because we will have all of these future "knowledge workers" to staff our "knowledge economy."
/sarcanol
He may not be well educated and he may not be much of an intellectual and he certainly has difficulties with speech but it would be a mistake to call him dumb. Don't underestimate him. When pressed he can be very clever about getting his way.
Let’s not be too quick to buy the argument that the new NIE changes everything about Iran. They are continuing with their Uranium enrichment program, which they would need to do if their goal was to develop weapons. They have good reason to develop nuclear power, as are most of the other oil states, so that they can continue to export petroleum and for when it runs out in a few years but they do not need to have their own fuel cycle to have nuclear power.
You can understand their possible concern about getting the fuel they need but there are good options (like Russia, China or France) other than the Great Satan. Investing all that money in enrichment is security based at heart and the option to take it to the ultimate state of producing HEU is certainly a big part of it. They have no need to think about weaponizing until they have the facilities in place to produce enough material to make bombs and then to spin those centrifuges for a few years.
The only thing that is really important about this development is that it probably makes it impossible for Bush to attack them before the end of his term, which is a very good thing.
When countries start building reactors it typically doesn't make sense for them to enrich until they've got about twenty units in operation.
I think besides the obvious defense aspect Iran wants to stay in the energy business as their FF reserves decline. Nuclear is an obvious vehicle for them over solar and wind focus, as it solves the problem of the ongoing gamesmanship in their back yard by the rest of the world as well as being a salable product. Lets not forget the Iranian revolution means to their self determination what the U.S. revolution means to us. We are the overbearing, unjust power in their world view, just as Britain was to us ten generations ago.
Its a darned shame that stuff that is so nice for heating water to drive steam turbines can go b00m! if its highly concentrated. I think the world would be a much different place if this were not the case ...
Yes, this genie has a dark side. But stopping nuclear power will not prevent bombs and building it will not significantly increase the risks of proliferation over the other ways to get these weapons.
Iran might want to get into the nuclear fuel business but they would probably be restricted to selling to other rogue states. Not much of a future in that. They might want to ensure that they could fend off pressure from the West but it is unlikely that they could develop a domestic nuclear power industry without help. Ultimately, enrichment is, for them, about making weapons.
Nuclear weapons are not useful for offense. They could not really attack Israel with its 300 or so nuclear weapons, much less the US. Individuals might be willing to die to hurt us but not an entire nation. But they could deter a US invasion. Of course, that’s what Bush wants to prevent. We cannot control the oil flows out of that region with a big independent regional power there who we cannot intimidate.
Who defines the members of this set of so called "rogue states"? George W. Bush? His successor? Right now we've got two AGW rogue states - the U.S. and Australia. And a quick Google will show how mother nature is treating them ...
The point is that the conventional wisdom of who is a rogue state goes out the window when the dollar of today is worth $0.25, and that day doesn't seem far off. Iran rising with Russia watching their back may very well become an even more significant regional power than they are now. The U.S. savaging their infrastructure would seem to be the only barrier to that, and that whole plan just got torpedoed in a big way.
Nuclear weapons are not usable for offense in today's world view and they very much serve to calcify things. No talk of regime change in North Korea, now is there? When things get really bad the long term concerns over fallout, both political and of the sort detectable with a Geiger counter, may be dramatically lessened. It'll be a progression - a 5kt starter weapon live test here, a subkiloton etiquette lesson there, and pretty soon anything goes.
We need to maintain dominance in the ME to maintain our way of life. Iran needs to come to heel. We can't allow others already at heel to watch them get away with defiance.
Once someone defies the bully without consequence, the bully is no more.
The loss has already occurred. Our armies are stranded in Afghanistan and Iraq, pinned down such that there is no withdrawal unless it is a heavily reinforced one, and even with such an approach they'll get savaged.
We have brought a focused, mechanized infantry to what should have been a long term, low intensity conflict in Afghanistan and we should have had the sense to steer clear of Iraq. But the sensible thing here would not have lined Dick Cheney's pockets ...
i think it helps to listen to leaders even where one disagrees with them
Ahmadinejad in his Columbia speech pointed out with some indignation and national hurt that the US sold them planes then refused them spare parts... let's be honest about it that is pretty terrible behaviour - but more importantly, while airlines are of strategic importance, controlling one's own energy supplies are even more so
they've learned that they cannot trust other major powers for strategically important supplies
Those planes were sold to the Shah before 1979 and are warplanes (F-15s and F-4s, I think). Whether or not it is the US's fault that Iran has been our enemy since then, a country has to be able to change it arms sales policies when governments change like they have in Iran.
I've not read that before. I understood from reading around the time that this referred to civilian airliners.
I have never heard of any airliners but I can tell you that we did supply some of our most advanced warplanes to the Shah's Air Force. After the revolution, we stopped supplying spare parts. I doubt many of them can still fly. Governments do not usually get involved with sales of airliners.
This article mentions "Throughout the 1970s, Iran purchased sophisticated aircraft for the air force. The acquisition of 77 F-14A Tomcat fighters added to 166 F-5 fighters and 190 F-4 Phantom fighter-bombers." Oops, F-14s not F-15s. ;-)
There is definitely an issue with spare parts for civilian aircraft.
This is the first link i pulled out of google. I'm posting it as a reference, certainly not as an endorsment of the point of view... However, the point of view probably is relevant to this line of discussion, and goes some way to justifying Ahmadinejad's point of view (as well as the claim).
link
As we have discussed before, I really wonder if the only thing that has kept Bush/Cheney from attacking Iran is active resistance from the military and perhaps now the intelligence community.
The remarkable essay by retired three star general Greg Newbold, in which he points out that officers swear an oath not to the president, but to the Constitution:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1181629,00.html
Hollywood and the more lefty press tries to stay topical/sarcastic (see John Stuart, etc.) without being openly traitorous so I think the point of making a Stauffenberg film now is apparent encouragement for dissent in the armed forces against a potential dictatorship.
There was an incident on the weekend where Tom Crusie got the German movie award "Bambi" at a big gala celbration and he cited the last words of Stauffenberg "Es lebe dass heilige Deutschland"("long live holy Germany") at the end of his rambling half hour speech and in the hall there was icy silence and it got into all the press as a scandal,as anything remotely patriotic in Germany in such an open sense is taboo since 60 years. However I think though Cruise is a bit too much into his acting role he carries the feel of true patriotism that the Ameiricans now feel in a "resistance" movement from within against the Bush regime. This is not just a lefty thing but something that common sense patriots see as destroying the credibility of America for generations similar to the results for Germany, losing effectively its sovereignty to America/Nato. America is indebting itself to Chinese and Arabs, to run this war and will effectively lose its sovereignty and perhaps if they step over a certain line(attacking Iran) be essentially destroyed and eternally labeled, like Germany, an evil agressor nation, regardless of what an individual three generations out knew of Grandpa's crimes.
Germans are down on Cruise because he is a scientologist. The German government have politely but firmly invited members of that group to go away, using laws put in place that were conceived to block the rise of totalitarian movements.
We here in Germany all know about the American totalitarian export called religion(Scientology)and that the poor nut case Tom Cruise is in their clutches. However that does nto change the meaning of the rest of what I said or its relevance.
And it's no accident that Eisenhower waited until
Stalingrad was decided to launch invasions into Africa and Italy.
Hey Galactic;
I'm sure you also have a sense of how Americans get a little excited about stories of Von Stauffenberg and others 'who tried'.. without our also realizing just how often German people are still constantly hearing references to WWII from well-meaning Americans who have little or no knowledge of life in contemporary Germany.
I'm always hungry for more contact with Germany, having been an exchange student there in the early 80's.. but it's not always easy to find here. We've been asked to host students for the program that sent me, and if we had more than an apartment, I'd love to do that sometime.
At least Cruise didn't launch into a chorus of 'Edelweiss' like Reagan did in Austria, thinking it was a real folk-tune there.
Alles Beste, (?)
Bob
Ja, ja, ja, ja
Weisst' nicht wie gut ich dir bin!
Is that Madeleine Kahn? (Blazing Saddles..)
Ich bin nur ein 'Irving Berliner'.. I get no kick from Champagne!
Bob
Scientology aside,(of which I know absolutely nothing and care even less) I do hope that Cruise does justice to the man Stauffenburg. I think the German authorities will have tried to make sure of this. It has the potential to be one of the most important 'war movies' ever made:
Honour from Betrayal, rather than blindly follow orders, knowing full well that if you fail then disgrace, and death will follow and this fate may include all your family and friends and colleagues. ...never mind loss of pension and medical insurance...
And if you want a potted biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claus_Schenk_von_Stauffenberg
Not black and white.
Mostly gray.
I'm American, been in Germany since 1991 but my father faught against the Germans and my mother lived in England as a youth during the war and I have read Toland and some of Shirer and watched enough war movies as a kid to have fantasies of how it could have been if somebody had just managed to kill Hitler sometime.
This is the problem from what I perceive in America people seem to be afraid of te regime,if you say the wrong thing on the internet, "they" could target you. WTF is going on in the land of the free? Obviously the Bush regime is not one bit better than Putin, although in Russia the situation is necessary in order to stabilize chaos due to wild west capitalism of the early days like in late 19th century gilded era USA or Dickens era but in America the terror is in order to destabilize a previously good situation to promote the interests of the military industrial finance complex in the hands of a few so that they can sell more weapons and make more war in a permanent spiral of violence and instability. I just hope that this is not systemic as some like Matt Savinar believe(e.g. Obama, Clinton on their payroll too so no hope of change) but that a change of officeholder will mean a real change. Somehow I don't know. Maybe the shadow govt. in the X-files was more real than we will ever know. God help us all.
Yeah, I'm a German-American and I've wondered all my life how it was possible for the Germans to go so badly wrong in the 1930's. As I've watched shrub and his administration unfold these last 7 years it's become very clear how it was possible.
I read Shirer's 'Rise and Fall of the Third Reich' to understand that better than I did.. and what I came away with was the (20/20hindsight) realization that there were 'warning signs' throughout the 30's, all manner of appeasement and denial which amounted to 'not wanting to put a chilling effect on the economy.. that sort of thing, right up the the Chamberlain visits to Hitler in Berchetesgaden during the Anschluss and I think still before Poland..
It's a dense book, and I think it still holds a good reputation. Worth the read, but it was dark enough when looking at it 5 years ago. Today, I don't know if I could bear it without some kind of medication.
Bob
I like Shirer's observation how things would have been different if he had retained the family name - Shiklgruber. Heil Shicklgruber does not roll off the tongue does it? Another good book by Shireer and rarely read is “The Collapse of the Third Republic” which covers France’s years of political infighting and bad decisions leading up to the German invasion .
I've read both Shirer books, both are highly recommended.
Looking both at the rise of the 3rd Reich and the demise of the 3rd Republic, I think that the question of "Why?" does not lend itself to a short, simple answer. It was a lot of things. My conclusion is that neither was inevitable; any number of things could have gone differently, and it would not have taken too many key things going differently at key moments to create very different outcomes. The lesson is that even small things can matter.
It is not the country it used to be, unfortunately.
That is exactly what it is, unfortunately. As Dmitri Orlov said, in the US we have the Capitalist Party, and the OTHER Capitalist Party. Status quo guaranteed, regardless of outcome.
The Democrats are reduced to working the "capitalism with a human face" angle, but this seems to consist of getting a pretty boy like JFK or Clinton, who then "regrets" some of the awful things he must do to keep the empire running, while Nixon, Reagan and Bush reveled in them. Note how Democratic presidents are wildly popular overseas, but seem despised at home, while Republicans are somewhat the opposite. (Nixon and Bush Senior may have been popular with foreign elites, but not the masses.) So it serves imperial interests to switch back and forth, a President loved by racist, xenophobic Americans, then one loved by socialistic welfare foreigners who actually make our stuff.
I wonder if that isn't the game for all those businessmen who do support the Democrats - they keep the nasty acts of globalization and coercion in some lobe of their brain fenced in with the eternal rationalization that one day our little brown brothers will receive their just rewards. They mean well! Love them!
The game's worn thin. Clinton screwed Latin America and Russia with neoliberalization, and it's been soundly rejected. We won't elect a real leftist to repair that damage. Re-elected Bush simply taught the world the lesson it needed to learn - it's not just America's government that's bad, but an awful lot of its citizens.
You nailed it
it's all coming apart...
We're not just financially bankrupt, we're morally and spiritually bankrupt, too. That works ... for a few quarters ... and then we have what we have now.
Plague, fire, and steel are the only cures for what ail us now? I do not wish such things in my lifetime, but history tells us this is the fate of old empires ...
Galactic, Germans have every reason to consider Scientology a Fascist American import, although Americans who know about it consider it a threat too.
Hubbard was a sociopath of the first order, and cooked up quite an evil brew of Calvinism, science fiction, and plain old brain washing to come up with his evil religion.
The best site for "knowing the enemy" is www.xenu.net and the episode of South Park is pretty good too!
I got all curious about Scientology because Scientology centers are all over the place in rat-race, workaholic, loony, Silicon Valley.
Just go read the xenu site, it's a real eye opener and has a lot of stuff on the fight against Scientology in Germany.
Those folks are so nutty (don't ask me for adjectives about any other religion or you're likely to find I hold them all in equal contempt).
Downtown San Francisco finds them spreading the word all too often, giving their free "personality" tests generally close to where the tourists congegrate to ride the nice cable cars halfway to the stars.
Often they'll bug me about taking the test and I just say, "Sorry, I don't like to deal wit people in cults." They get all bent out of shape. Definitely none of that "I wanna be a martyr" complex in this group. Maybe some day I'll take it upon myself to explain peak oil to them. That'll get their thetans up.
Judging from their relatively new headquarters here in the old Transamerica Building ( http://www.scientology.org/en_US/news-media/briefing/openings/sfo/ ) , they must be doing the fundraising thing real well. Hard to say whether they or the Unification Church have done the best, economically, as new religions in my lifetime, but the latter certainly holds more sway on government of the US than the Scientologists.
Jerry Seinfeld is the latest celebrity to credit Scientology training for some of this success. He specifically stated that the communication and persuasion techniques are quite advanced. One caveat: I know next to nothing on the Scientology subject- like PO one hears dramatically different stories from the two sides of the street. The advocates describe a technology of sales/persuasion/motivation training, the critics describe a cult of wackos.
Sales/persuasion/motivation training sums up a lot of religion, business, and everything; that doesn't preclude wackos.
As with all "religions" it also doesn't preclude very nice people being involved and/or duped. I have a friend who maintains Scientology saved her life at one particularly low point. She doesn't "do it" now, but what the hell. I imagine if things are so bad at some junctures, joining an African Violet society might even save you're life.
Mentioned above was the South Park episode. A lot of the beliefs of the church are in this. And it's awfully damned funny, at least if you're a South Park fan.
Lots of the "tech" is very good. Auditing, the desensitization techniques, etc.
There are those called "squirrels" who desire to use the "tech" without the church of scientology strings, and my hat's off to them because a lot of the "tech" is good and helpful.
Even I've been helped by some basic Scientology tech years'n'years ago, amazingly. This is one reason I was interested in learning about the Scienos also, because what little I'd seen was good, but there was this .... how could I put it ... smell of sulphur....
The "tech" that works has almost totally been taken from other teachers, groups, cults, what have you. Even auditing, with the e-meter, predates Scientology and was not invented by Hubbard. In fact a workable e-meter is not hard to cobble together using any decent meter movement, batteries, a couple-few potentiometers, etc. Oh and 2 cans. Auditing at its most basic level teaches you to control your state of arousal, or nervous system excitement. Pro athletes learn this sort of thing, habitual liars, conmen leaders, visionaries, etc. It's just a type of self-control that most people don't come under pressure to learn, so they don't.
I have a REAL problem with any Church that charges people $$ to learn to worship though.
check out operation clambake - google it
they basically prey on people at vulnerable periods of their life and suck all the money they can out of them
My favorite character on South Park is "Tweek", he is the perfection representation of TOD doomer. :P
No he isn't.
He's the perfect representation of a kid raised in a coffee grinding company who huffs coffee powder in the air all day, is forced to try out his parents' "new blends" and was probably weaned on latte'
The result is/will be the same as November 8, 1942.
November 8 Events in History
November 8, 1942 Allies under Eisenhower land in N-Africa (Casablanca) November 8, 1942 Hitler proclaims fall of Stalingrad from Munich beer hall ...
www.brainyhistory.com/days/november_8.html - 32k -
Elaine Supkis has the details as usual:
"Well, it looks increasingly like Iran Kitty has won yet another round with Miz Liberty. Either way, the US has lost. Either we commit global economic suicide or we lose face as we back away from the flailing claws of the cat. We lost face in Asia big time this last month and now we lost whatever face we still have, in the Middle East. Projection of power means avoiding pies in the face. Clowns get plastered with pies, not great leaders. The US is causing considerable financial havoc still thanks to our moronic need to fight with the Cat. And this is causing increasing problems for our allies in Asia and Europe not to mention, ticking off the Chinese Dragon who doesn't want high oil prices and embargoes. On the other hand, this has pleased Putin no end. Mother Russia is much richer, thanks to these fights."
Westexas, a revelation from an ex-Italian president, which is quite remarkable if true. Cossiga seemingly said this in Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper:
Osama-Berlusconi? «Trappola giornalistica»
http://www.corriere.it/politica/07_novembre_30/osama_berlusconi_cossiga_...
Can someone who understands Italian please confirm what was said and if it is significant?
Yes, that's what he said. Significant? Well, Cossiga is well known for his odd behavior and declarations. Nobody really pays attention at what he says anymore. Not here in Italy, at least.
The same could be said of George Bush :)
Out of curiosity I looked up Cossiga on Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francesco_Cossiga#Controversial_9.2F11_comm...
And also Operation Gladio in which he was supposedly involved:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladio
Significant? I think this guy has some authority behind him and seems to be part of a rising tide of credible individuals saying the same thing. It seems to be an open secret in certain circles and leads credence to Westexas's view that certain arms of the military are trying to restrain wayward elements within.
I re-read the Corriere Della Sera article and also went on to read some Italian blogs that commented on the article. Apparently Cossiga's "revelations" were just sarcastic comments addressed to opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi.
Cossiga also dismissed and ridiculed "9/11 conspiracy theories" several times in the past.
Cossiga loves sarconol:)
I thought I'd heard of Gladio before but until you directed me to that link I'd never realized the vast scope of its operations.
It seems the Cold War democracies of Europe always operated with an American/Fascist gun to their heads. The Russians probably wish they'd been that subtle in their half of Europe, if only for the cost savings.
For starters you want to read Heinrich
Boll, The Lost Honour of Katarina Blum.
If you can find it see also Bommi
Baumann, Wie Alles Anfing.
Katarina Blum is non-fiction and ran
afoul of Paragraph 88a, the Spiritual
Terrorism Law.
Boll spent the last years of his life
hawking banned books on the steps of
Koln Cathedral, including of course
his own. Under the watchful eye of the
Gestapo, finally shunned even by
American tourists.
Also highly recommended Gruppenbild
mit Dame (Group Portrait With Lady)
which was the occasion of 88a.
Some not particularly distinguished
American old hippies have friends
and lovers who perished in Gladio.
Admiral Fallon is the CIC for the US forces in the Gulf, and he's stated in public that there will be no attack on Iran on his watch. It's rumoured that he is opposing Dick Cheney's plans to attack Iran, and that it the NIE was "leaked" by Fallon's people, because it's been hanging around for almost a year with the White House doing all it could to prevent publication.
NYT-again h/t Elaine Supkis:
An Assessment Jars a Foreign Policy Debate About Iran
Rarely, if ever, has a single intelligence report so completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate here.
There have been alot of intel reports in US History, folks.
Leave 'Fact' aside for a moment, though, and follow the direction of the thing. It would be monumental enough for me that any part of the Iran debate could finally force an effect onto this 'Battleship with no Rudder' that is the Bush White House.
It's a comfort to know that the President says he 'Still feels fine'.. though I have a feeling he's not even telling the truth about that.
Bob
He can't be feeling fine. He can't be feeling much of anything at all.
At best he has to pretend to be stupid and even that is
temporary as the body will do it's utmost to accommodate
the wishes of it's owner.
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2007/12/played-for-fools-yet-again-...
"With very rare exceptions, the intelligence agencies always get it wrong. That they got it wrong with Iraq, and possibly with Iran (either earlier, or now, or both) is not news: that is what they do."
Yeah.
He was really pumping his 'Nukular' for the media today.. what an elaborate crock. Makes me sick! Talking about how 'Iran has to come clean about their Nukular program.' What about OUR Nuclear prg, D-head! And just the thought of the guy saying 'come clean'.. he kisses his mother with that mouth?
Bob
She deserves it.
Scroll down to see note from Dowd's colleague at New York Times, Scott Shane.
http://www.prosefights.org/thecanadian/buehler/buehler.htm#buehler
Shane and Bowman were nominated for a Pulitizer Prize for their NSA story.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Bowman_(journalist)