ASPO's latest charts and graphs show an all liquids peak of 87 Mbpd in 2010. Forty years later, all liquids is down to 41 Mbd. On average this is 1.15 Mbpd or 1.3% per year. Do you think we can handle a 1.3% decline rate?

And the ASPO knows exactly what will happen? All their prognostications are just a best case scenario. Jeffery Brown's Export Land Model indicates we will have a much steeper decline.

I think it is really foolish to expect a gradual slow decline. That is just another form of denial. Producing nations will see an increase in consumption while production declines. Hording will be rampant. And there is the ever possibility of resource wars.

In fact what is happening right now in Nigeria is nothing more than a resource war. Those Nigerians not getting their fair share of the wealth are fighting like hell to get it. And that one particular resource war just took 900,000 bp/d off line.

Nigeria: Country's Production Capacity Drops By 900,000bpd

And as the price of oil climbs higher and higher and people get hungry because of the consequences of peak oil, the violence will get greater and greater.

A slow decline of 1.3% per year, for decades? You are dreaming. I would predict a best case scenario of a drop of about 5% per year. Less than 1% for the next few years, then 2 to 3% for just a few years, then sometime between 2015 and 2020 a drop of at least 5% per year, barring severe resource wars. In that case the drop will be much steeper.

Ron Patterson