The Oil Drum

alan,

Once more, the late 1970's mirror works....it is ASTOUNDING.

You can look at the historical charts on wheat, corn, copper, tin, bauxite, oil, natural gas, propane, almost all the metals and you see exactly the same top in the late 1970's....I graduated high school in that period and it seemed like the Western economies were FINISHED.

So what is yet to fall into place?
The stock market: It is still due for a serious correction. That is not doomer talk, it just makes sense....the markets have weathered the dot com crash, the 9/11 attack, the Asian bond crash, the runup of energy prices....so do we assume the market is now exempt from normal rules? I wouldn't bet on it.
My guess is that we should see a 9500 point Dow sometime in the next couple of years....but what will cause it?
Interest rates: They MUST go up. contrary to popular belief, they are still very, very low, and need to rise to perhaps 10% for at least a short time.

The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are at least as good as any nation in the world (certainly MUCH better than the fundamentals of the E.U. or China)

What we are seeing is a currency/curve, pure and simple, and we are doing what we have always done with the Fed, trying to stick our finger in the dike.

This cycle could go another 3 to 4 years, and then, just as in 1982, when all the "little guys" and weak players have been shaken out, on one sunny day without warning, the markets will take off, the economy will begin what could be an astounding expansion with new efficiency technologies pouring into every corner of the U.S. economy, and pity the pour swine who got shaken out of everything he or she had.....they will not have the cash to enjoy the rebound.

It's an old story....you can't time the market. But it can sure time you.

RC