A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.

I was about to post a link to this essay. This is the clearest analysis I have yet seen of the mess we are in.

A question to West Texas: Dr. Duncan in his Olduvai Valley theory predicts a "crossover point" when OPEC supplies over 50% of the world's production. He was focused on total production, and not necessarily on what was actually available for export. So, when will OPEC exports represent 50% or more of the world's exportable crude oil?

We are probably about there right now in terms of their share of total net exports, but I think that OPEC as an organization is pretty much irrelevant.

Regarding oil supplies, I suspect that Richard Duncan is actually on the optimistic side, because of the ELM effects. See my post down the thread.

As several people have noted, we appear to be facing a triple play threat next year--Peak Debt; Peak Food and Peak Exports.

Some good thoughts at the end of this article:

Here I will revert to my past recommendations.

1. Get out of debt.

2. Be very careful about where you keep your money. Already several high profile money market funds have suffered losses and closed down returning less than the deposit amount to their clients. Expect this to get worse.

3. The dollar is in a precarious situation especially now that the fed and the FHLB have begun exchanging paper money for bad debt. Gold. Silver. Top off your oil tank at home. Do whatever you can to reduce your exposure to the dollar.

4. Be aware that pensions, municipal investment accounts, and even your bank are all highly likely to be exposed to the leveraged losses that are now upon us. If you are exposed here, figure out how not to be. Should a major banking crisis erupt, please consider how you'll conduct your daily affairs if your bank 'goes on holiday'. Cash in a safe place is one form of insurance.

5. If you are a citizen of a country whose central bank insists on bailing out the monied elite (big banks) with your current and/or future tax dollars, use every possible avenue available to legally apply pressure upon your political representatives to prevent this from happening.

Gold/Silver are good, but I would suggest stocking up on food while it's still relatively cheap. You'll need food no matter what, and for now, the grocery stores still don't take gold/silver bullion or coins. With the recent energy bill pushing more ethanol production along with production drops due to weather disruptions such as drought, I think the best place to put my money is in food.

~Durandal(http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)

What kinds of food do you suggest stocking up on?

2 categories

'lifeboat' stock - preferably long term storage that you don't use but rotate out when expiration is near. google walton foods .for ex. wheat kernals for instance keeps several years.

buying food in larger supply that you actively use. for instance in stuart's recent thread a couple of
days ago meats are expected to shoot up later in 08. the thread has good comments re suggestions.

I would make sure there's a bunch of

-Grains (Rice, Oats (rolled or cut), Wheat, Millet, Spelt
Wheat, etc)

-Pasta

-Root Vegetables (Beets, Potatoes, Carrots)

-Canned Goods, but watch the dates and rotate stock
-Jars of Sauce, Pickles
-Yeast, Baking Soda

-Jugs of WATER.. very important, very easy to do. ..Very easy to put off for tomorrow. Water supply rarely gives you a day's notice before it shuts down. Always seems to happen 'just a few minutes ago.. do the neighbors have water?'

Basically long-term storage items.. but make sure you create a system for 'Maintenance'.. where you cycle out older foods and eat them up, replacing with new stock.. Otherwise, you'll be wasting a lot of money.
(Put DATES on EVERYTHING. Date Placed in storage, and DATE to REMOVE by..)

We also have a freezer full of beef from a local, grass-fed cow. I have a few ways to keep a freezer cold if we go dark, but it's still one of the more dicey sides of our "IceStorm Preparations"

We keep a couple Camping Stoves handy, too, with a stock of White-Gas for them.

Finally, for electricity, I have about 300watts of Solar and a small about (2kwh) worth of battery storage. We also have a cheap, second-hand 1500w Gas Generator, with a few gallons of fuel onsite. (Can't live on Bread alone..)

Best,
Bob Fiske

One more thing I would add to this:

You're going to have grow at least some of your own food sooner or later, most likely. Might as well make the transition sooner.

Thus, when it comes to canned goods, I'd suggest trying to raise a garden and can as much of your own produce as possible, rather than buying store-bought cans. Once you've made the investment in a canner and mason jars, you will be able to reuse them over and over again (only needing new lids, which would be a good item to stock up on); store-bought cans should be recycled too, but it isn't in a way that benefits you so directly.

While you are ramping up production, and even once you've maxed out if you don't have enough space to grow all your produce, you might consider buying in bulk in season at the farmer's markets, and then canning a big batch. In the past, I've considered it to not be particularly worthwhile to do this, but these are not ordinary times.

You'll also want to garden with open polenated seeds, and get into seed storage (most packets will remain viable for several years if stored properly) if not seed saving. What you want to do is to bring the entire cycle home: seed to garden to produce to preservation to consumption to compost & seed.

Don't use F1 hybrid seeds if you are saving them, They won't grow true to type

I would suggest adding some Textured Vegetable Protein, aka meat extender, and buying it in bulk from a reputable health food store. Whole Foods Market price in Dallas is cheaper than web prices, for instance. If you have spare room in the freezer, store it there, and it will keep virtually forever, as it is made from defatted soy. Try some before you have to use it. It could make you a little gassy, but with meats and with most carbohydrates makes for a reasonably complete protein. It does not have to be stored frozen, but it does make for a long term alternative.

I should add, my own opinion is that after the initial hoarding, we will see some semblance of order return and then we will have a slow decline in availability of necessities. But, just in case....

And, you might add a solar cooking alternative, which can be fun anyway and it takes the heat of cooking outdoors.

Good points.

I'm not a fan of TVP per se (we're only using fermented soy products, like tempeh now), but some form of stored dry protiens, absolutely. Beans, Lentils, Garbonzos etc.. and of course, if you're just trying to survive.. I'm not absolutely fanatical about TVP or tofu or soymilk..

Solar Cooking, definitely!

One of my stockpile items that I rarely pass up when dumpster-diving is any sizable Glass, or Mirror materials.. Another Glass Item that can be invaluable as well is large storage Jars, like the 1 gallon pickle jars from delis. These can store almost any food, not be affected by moisture, acidity, mice, etc..

Bob

'just a few minutes ago.. do the neighbors have water?'

You might want to encourage your immediate neighbors to make preparations too. This is the hard part. But if they aren't prepared and you are, you can bet they'll come knocking on your door when trouble hits.

I'm really concerned that answers are being given prior to answering the prime question: What am I preparing for? Is it for a week? A few months? A year? Forever? There are many similar questions that also have to be asked before taking action but TOD isn't the place to go into a disertation on survival. But, FWIW, here is what the LDS Church suggests for two people fo a year (I'm not Mormon BTW but they have some excellent information at http://www.providentliving.org .) I don't agree with every part of their list but that's how it goes.

Group 1: Grains
wheat - 305#
Enriched white flour - 31#
Corn Meal - 57#
Rolled oats - 77#
Enriched white rice - 135#
Pearled barley - 7#
Spaghetti - 67#

Group 2: Legumes
Dry beans - 90#
Dry lima beans - 4#
Dry split peas - 4#
Dry lentils - 4#
Dry soup mix - 14#

Group 3: Fats ans oils
Cooking oil - 10 quarts
Shortening - 4q
Mayonnaise - 2q
Salad dressing (mayo type) - 2q
Peanut butter - 2q

Group 4: Milk Group
Nonfat dry milk - 28#
Evaporated milk - 24 - 12oz cans

Group 5: Sugars
Granulated sugar - 80#
Brown sugar - 6#
Molasses - 2#
Homsy - 6#
Corn syrup - 6#
Jams/preserves - 10#
Powdered fruit drink - 12#
Flavored gelatin - 2#

Group 6: Miscellaneous
Salt - 16#
Dry yeast - 1#
Baking soda - 2#
Baking powder - 2#
Water - 28 gallons (This is one of the items I simply can't believe!)

Personally, I'd suggest buying a copy of Making the Best of Basics. It has lots of lists and ideas.

As far as crops go, I've grown stuff for 40 years and one thing I have learned is that you have to test varieties; you can't trust the blurb in the catalog. During this time we have probably tested 30 varieties of tomatoes, 18 of sweet corn, 6 of field corn, 12 of canteloupe, 12 of water melons, etc. People who simply buy a pack of seed and expect to see a miracle are likely to be disapointed.

That's enough for now or I'll turn this into a survival forum.

Todd

#1 is sort of undifferentiated grey goo.

Since the US will monetize the US debt through inflation, if you pay low-rate debt now you're losing money.

I've looked at paying off the house and I just don't see why - with a 5.25% interest rate 15 year loan.

On the other hand if you have significant credit card debt or other debts at 23% rates you need to get some ramen noodles and maybe credit counseling and pay off the card now.

For people with low-interest rate home loans it seems to me that buying emergency supplies, fixing critical home infrastructure (and insulating/changing to low energy appliances) is a much better way to go. Take the money left over and buy gold.

You'll be better prepared for many outcomes than if you are broke, without supplies, and have no debt.

You can keep paying off your low-rate debts with dollars whose intrinsic value decreases monotonically.

Just a thought.

Pay off the credit card debt first.

But pay off the house ASAP.

You can negotiate with the credit card people.

Get they're best offer and shop it around.

If you have no debt you're wealthier than 80% of
Americans.

Had a thought or two on this also.

I just saw a diminutive watermelon being offered in an urban WalMart for $5. How many of the millions of people around there could grow a watermelon today if their lives depended on it? $5 will look cheap someday soon.

Several here have made a case for deflation. I doubt it. The essentials are food and energy and their value can become almost limitless (like oxygen) dwarfing all other expenses. Really most everything else is discretionary.

Would going into debt for a decent small (talking a few acres with solar, in a good growing area, bikable, with rail close) be warranted?

Otherwise better free up what limited resources one has for responding to the unfolding situation.

Would going into debt for a decent small (talking a few acres with solar, in a good growing area, bikable, with rail close) be warranted?

Only if you're 110% sure you can keep making the payments. Is your job peak oil proof?

Fixed payments fixed income.

But where does the fixed income come from?

Everyone should ask themselves that question, especially those who feel they are safe.

Prepare for losing at least a large part of your income. Don't think that pensions will save the day when you get to that age. Pension funds are set to become the biggest losers of all as the credit morgana unwinds.

Then, when banks start holding back on loans to businesses, expect many of them to go belly-up, taking jobs down with them. 99% of firms need a rolling credit line to function. And of course customers with spending power.

'Guaranteed' government jobs are very much at risk. All levels of government face a potential triple strike. First, decreasing tax revenue, second, loss of funds that were invested in shady paper, and third, no buyers for the bonds that kept the ship going.

All these things need to be considered when you feel your job and/or income is fixed or guaranteed.

And a lot of local governments, e.g. San Diego, have promised pension payouts to their current and former workers that are far in excess of what can they can actually provide (even at current stock/bond values). And then we have Social Security/Medicare . . .

I suspect that the US government will continue mailing out social security checks for as long as there continues to be a US government. Eventually, one of those checks and twenty five trillion dollars might be enough to buy a cup of coffee.

Certain that nothing is certain.

Present contracts and pensions can evaporate.

Securing land through short term debt perhaps better than paper. Sharecropping, victory gardening, co-operative buys possible.

Unproductive areas and people caught in unproductive situations can be given alternative to taking, vegetating.(WT)

Immigrants worked their way across US under produce or perish, innovate or die, no retreat, no safety net circumstances. (Modern day China) Our immediate future.

'Guaranteed' government jobs are very much at risk. All levels of government face a potential triple strike. First, decreasing tax revenue, second, loss of funds that were invested in shady paper, and third, no buyers for the bonds that kept the ship going.

Actually, some local governments may not do too badly, at least those without large debt burdens to service and that have at least some property owners still able to pay property taxes. Such local governments will probably find themselves getting into the landlord business in a big way, whether they want to or not. For those property owners not able to pay property taxes (and that may include banks owning foreclosed properties), the local governments will end up holding the properties themselves. At a certain point it will occur to everyone that rather than selling them for pennies and driving local property values down to almost zero, holding on to the properties and renting them out would actually be a better way to go. It would provide the local government with at least some cash flow to make up for the lost property tax revenues, and it would provide what would otherwise be a massive homeless population with housing. This strategy would be a good foundation toward getting a local economy on its feet again.

For towns with a large debt burden however, and without many financially well-off homeowners, forget it. Such local governments probably will go bankrupt.

I've never seen a municipality cut back on spending. In fact, property taxes seem to consistently rise faster than inflation. True of government at all levels, I suppose.

At what point would you envision a municipality actually "getting it" and seriously cutting services? Or will they just raise property taxes higher and higher until everyone is homeless?

I've never seen a municipality cut back on spending.

You will see it soon. Many municipalities will simply become insolvent.

First, decreasing tax revenue, second, loss of funds that were invested in shady paper, and third, no buyers for the bonds that kept the ship going.

First to go are many jobs, along with services like road maintenance, schools etc. People will elect to keep the most essential services, drinking water over roads. And they will have to make that choice.

Raising taxes on a population that gets ever poorer is not politically smart, and may get you into far more serious trouble too, certainly if you live in the same town. A popular threat in the Dutch Antilles: 'Ey man, I know where your house lives'.

All levels of government will feel the same tax revenue squeezes, and all will try to raise taxes. Good luck with that as people lose their homes and jobs.

You will see it soon. Many municipalities will simply become insolvent.

That's the base of my reply to people worrying about big brother, police state, etc. I don't know if it will happen. THAT's why Kunstler said "They'll be lucky to be able to answer the phone".

How about fuel for all those nifty helicopters local police have now or squad cars and their gas and maint.

Budget problems just might relegate those things of the past.

We've already seen some of that happen this summer in Central Texas. Had 6 weeks of large summer rains that were really hell on our dirt roads. When the county commissioners were asked about bringing in a few load of gravel to fill in the low spots we were told there was less than $100.00 left in the road fund for the rest of the year, and this was in July! We ain't seen nothing yet as to the breakdown of basic services and community needs given the current financial shenanagins that are going on. John

Tomorrow at 12:00 I go to see a man about a design job - integrating a wireless ISP with city and county services so their stuff can pass transparently. I looked right at him, told him about Florida and the other places, and suggested maybe he not overextend himself. I know the sound waves reached his ears, but I got no sign it made any impression.

I'm breaking the job into four pieces spread out over three months with just a few hours in each increment. I'm grateful for work, but I hate to take his money for something that might evaporate, so we'll go slow and steady. Finding customers is hard for me, so I try to treat 'em nice once I do catch them.

I've asked myself this question, and my job is not POproof at the moment. Shipping however, is likely to persist, and the small company I work for should be able to shift to a more local mode of operations, though not painless.

I feel safe now, but know how fragile this is.

A better idea is to use equity. If you can't pay cash, put a business plan together, and try to get an option to buy or outright buy some land (perhaps with debt at first), and then sell the thing to three people, with each of them paying for one third of the cost of getting the small scale gardening/farming operation up and going, carrying you for 25%. This is a variation on a typical oil deal. The basic premise is that you trade sweat equity for real equity, with no debt in the project.

I freely acknowledge that I know zilch about organic gardening and farming, but I what I think I do know is that we are rapidly headed toward a situation where you have two choices: produce or perish. I guess technically there is a third option that many will pursue: theft.

In any case, small scale food Victory Gardens are certainly possible:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5673.html
Published on 22 Jul 2004 by San Francisco Chronicle. Archived on 25 Apr 2005.
Berkeley: Urban farmers produce nearly all their food with a sustainable garden in their backyard

I got my "PO" Garden and composter going last spring.

I went the raised bed route and successfully grew some of my favorite veggies and some mini-watermelons. They were SOOOooo much better tasting than the store-bought, imported from corp farms stuff.

think I do know is that we are rapidly headed toward a situation where you have two choices: produce or perish.

Exactly. Just came back from China. I saw a bunch of sustainable small scale agriculture there. I think their model ,however flawed, will be much better at providing individuals with food post peak post recession. The means of growing food is in the hands of a much higher percentage of the population. Skills and knowledge abound. Yes I know they are urbanizing but much closer to the land and not as car-dependent.

Your suggestion seems to be to be a mechanism by which we might attempt to do the same here.

Two additional considerations for Baby Boomers, especially those with children:

(1) I put food as the #1 requirement for successful retirement, so ownership of a food producing facility probably makes sense as part of your retirement planning (or would you rather have your money in some solid financial stocks?);

(2) Millions of college graduates, many of them with large student loans, are going to be headed back home to mom and dad because they can't find a job, or they can't find a job that will pay their living expenses and pay their student loan overlords. If you own a garden/farm, you can put them to work producing food, rather than having them consume your food, while watching cable TV all day long. If you don't have children of your own, there will probably be lots of parents of unemployed college graduates that would love to loan one to you. The key point is to convert a liability--a resource consuming unemployed college grad--into a productive asset.

BTW, an even scarier thought than millions of unemployed college graduates coming back home is--brace yourselves, this is grim--millions of unemployed brothers-in-law showing up on on people's doorsteps. This may be an even better reason to own a garden/farm, perhaps with tiny houses for workers?

"unemployed brothers-in-law showing up on on people's doorsteps"

Ha...this made me laugh a bit. I have a brother-in-law that is a comedy writer and TV producer. He lives in a 2.5 million dollar house in Pacific Palisades and has a nanny for his kids.

He is currently unemployed due to the Writer's Strike.

I just had a flash of him showing up on my doorstep...hat in hand.

BTW, an even scarier thought than millions of unemployed college graduates coming back home is--brace yourselves, this is grim--millions of unemployed brothers-in-law showing up on on people's doorsteps.

OMG I hadn't thought about THAT!!

Sharon Astyk called it The Brother in Law on Your Couch Vision of the Apocalypse:

Ok, it isn't the apocalypse, but whenever I point out to people that to a large degree hard times means consolidating housing, living with family and friends and taking in refugees you happen to be related to (by biology or friendship), I get a great deal of resistance. I suspect some of us are better prepared to deal with purple-haired mutants invading our neighborhoods than we are prepared to deal with the basic reality that hard times often look like your brother in law, his kids and spouse sleeping on your living room couch for three years. And I get the frequent impression many of us would rather face the mutants, given the choice.

Yes yes the mutants ANYDAY!

Approaching people about something so innocuous as carpooling, biking or going in on grocery runs should be child's play. It's that or TBILOYC!

Dear Leanan,

Thank you for turning me on to Sharon Astyk, she rocks! ( And so do you : )

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

Thank you for turning me on to Sharon Astyk

Hang out at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/messages

and read the posts from Sharondownonthefarm.

Her and Linda Graves ROCK.

Go back over the previous posts and read theirs. Some great practical knowledge.

For me it is potentially far, far worse.

Not only does my brother in law (a city lawyer who I like a lot) talk about heading to our place in case of trouble, but so do many of the other relatives! And some of our good friends too.

Of course, none of them are actually helping me acquire the sort of land base that could feed them.

Right, uncle Jason will feed us, no problem.

Turn it into a business opportunity by implementing the quarter pays a third idea. If your friends/family turn you down, you have an ethical basis for telling them to find their own lifeboat. I would enclose a copy of "The Little Red Hen" with the proposal

In the mean time, it's a win/win/win proposition. You can start growing more food, put more teenagers to work--training them in useful skills--and be prepared to meet the increasing demand for locally grown food.

Me too. Im'a move to Willits when TSHTF. :)

I'm moved in with an old-old friend, old because I've been friends with the guy for 20 years and counting, and old because well, he's old.

Right now he's getting a damned decent amount of money each month, and my income's nada. But this may change, inflation may eat up his buying power, and I plan to see how far I can get toward being a farming fool around here, as well as being relatively young and pliable and willing to draw folks, play guitar and crack jokes on the street for tips, trap small animals and too-complacent dogs, etc.

And I don't forget a friend. I'm weird and perverse that way.

LOL.
My internet famiy has plans to set up teepees at my pond.

Keeping with your alliterative scheme: produce, pilfer, or perish.

ELM, ELP & PPP

Another good strategy that will open up for a lot of people once food prices rise high enough: Garden sharecropping.

There are going to be plenty of people out there with yards, but with no gardening tools or know-how or time or energy, but who are going to find their food budgets stretched to the breaking point. You could probably line up several such people up and down your street, and arrange the same deal with each: you raise a garden on their land in exchange for 1/2 of the crop. One person could stay busy enough on this scheme to raise several times more than the amount of produce they need for their own household; this surplus could be sold at the local farmer's tailgate market.

This would work best for someone that had their own place paid for free and clear and had no other debts. You are unlikely to generate enough money under such a venture to pay off a typical modern mortgage, let alone any other debts. However, it might work if you just need a way to earn enough money to cover whatever food you can't grow yourself, plus whatever energy you need to buy, plus property taxes and a few other essentials. Supplement it with some hand crafts that you produce indoors during the winter slow months, and you could set yourself up pretty well.

Sounds a bit like what these guys have come up with:

http://www.spinfarming.com/

The creators of this have a stall here at the Saskatoon Farmer's market that I occasionally buy stuff from.

http://www.spinfarming.com/creators/

How about this idea?

SEATTLE URBAN FARM COMPANY

Are you interested in eating more fresh, organically grown vegetables? Would you like to have a secure, sustainable food source in your backyard? Have you always wanted to have a garden, but don’t feel you have the time or know-how to get started? If so, you might be interested in the services that the Seattle Urban Farm Company provide. We use our collective farming and gardening experience to establish a productive organic vegetable plot in your yard.

Owning is not enough, if you have to pay a yearly/monthly tax on something even if it's paid off it's not yours it's the government's and that deffiently goes for land. expect good crop producing land to be taken with 'eminent domain' by the government to set up work camps to try to stabilize the situation. or to be taken if you refuse to pay the ever increasing 'tax'. maybe both.

Ouch, that rings all too true.

Hi Jeffrey,

re: "equity". A great suggestion - I'd sure like more "how to" advice. Here are some of my questions about this:

1) I can see a huge potential - for example, in the category of "land slated for development":

There must be many properties already purchased by developers - people "caught unawares" in the housing collapse.

Q: Is it necessary they be convinced about "peak oil"? How long will they "just wait" for the market to "turn around" and/or "pick up again"? (See what I mean?) People usually make boku bucks going from farm use to subdivision - that's why they do it (I mean, historically speaking, of course.) It's especially true - something I've seen a lot - the heirs will sell off to developers. There's just so much money to be made (in times past)...

To convince the owners, or even the new owner/developers that the conversion (farm-to-suburb) is *over* - this seems unlikely.

Or, do you see it otherwise?

2) Do you actually know of anyone who has done this, and if so, may I correspond with him/her/them?

3) If farms/large farm/agribusiness are already in business as farmers - then, it's a matter of "convincing" them of the wisdom of turning to organic and/or more sustainable methods? But in this case, I don't see how they'd be willing to sell.

4) If working farms - do you actually think that many are on the market?

5) Where to find investors (potential investors) who want to buy farmland - and then are you saying this would only be of interest to "peak aware" type of folks? Or, would this involve more "evangalizing" - spreading the TOD/EB word, which I do a lot of already...

Or, do you "make a list" of people w. means and *then* convince them about "peak"? (I want to laugh, but...you know...how unpredictable the reaction to "peak" is...you must know how deep that denial "river" runs...we've all experienced it, in many forms...)

6) And then there's...where to find that energetic young organic farmer...? (able and willing to re-locate? eager to set up a new organic farm? needing labor...from...?etc.)

7) In other words...this would be a nice project (like, say for me) - it's just...hard for me to picture how one might begin.

In general, the organizer gets "paid" (in equity) for doing all the work. The "investors" get a ready-made product that doesn't take a lot of thinking. So, go find yourself a good piece of land for four families. This would probably mean at least 10 acres of farmable land, plus another ten or so of woodland would be nice. In upstate New York, you could get this for about $40,000.

In many rural areas, houses are more plentiful than people, and you might find a nice deal on something with a building there already. If you're going to go live there yourself right away, that might be nice. With a three- or four-bedroom house (one bedroom per family), you might find something like this for as little as $100,000 or so.

You might be able to lock up the land. Make an offer contingent on getting three investors within three months or so.

Then, once you've picked out your spot, make up a little document with pictures that describes the spot in detail, and why it is good for "bugout" purposes. Describe the holding costs of the property (primarily taxes and insurance on the house). Then find three others who want a bedroom in your bugout house, for a third of the cost (eg $33,000 each, which is a good deal -- where else are you going to find a tended house and land for that kind of price?)

The point is, you do the legwork and present them with a ready-to-eat solution.

The point is, you do the legwork and present them with a ready-to-eat solution.

Econguy is right. The question to ask potential investors is the following: What is your #1 requirement for retirement? I always put food at the top of the list.

A variation of this is that some developers have started building homes on the periphery of working farms.

As I implied elsewhere, I can barely keep an office plant alive, and I'm not trying to downplay the difficulties involved in trying to become a small food producer, but like growing old, it probably beats the alternative.

Another variation is to set up small farm learning centers, where people stay for a weekend and begin to learn small scale gardening/farming practices.

Because of rising fuel costs, local farms are going to increasingly have a cost advantage over more remote food sources.

Hi WT/Jeffrey and everyone who commented,

I appreciate your responses.

At the same time, I asked some specific questions - did anyone see those?

I'd be so happy to have specific responses to each question!

If you are talking about first convincing people about "peak oil" (etc.) and *then* attempting to "sell them" the concept of a big move...?

Or, are you talking about people who know nothing about "peak" and are planning retirement, as you (Jeffrey) say in this post above?

And what about the example I gave - developers holding farms just "waiting" for "the market" to once again start up (like it should :))!?

My point is:

From a business point of view, I can see that - for example - farms as potential subdivisions will cease, and farmland use once again be the most value.

In fact, know of - developers "on hold" just waiting for "the market" to pick up.

I've tried for three years to convince someone I know - to not go ahead with trying to get a "subdivision profit" from the "family farm" - and even now, I still hear "Oh, the market will pick up in a couple of years".

In other words - I agree it's a fantastic concept. Be ahead of the curve. I'm just saying...

Who are the potential buyers? for such an idea.

In addition to my other questions.

For example try this:

215 acres dairy farm
classic 5br house plus barn

$215,000

http://www.allcountryfarms.com/listings/listingview.php?listingID=237

and then sell the thing to three people, with each of them paying for one third of the cost of getting the small scale gardening/farming operation up and going, carrying you for 25%.

Don't you run into complications of land sub-division, minimum lot sizes, or otherwise resolving title, or associated problems of multiple occupancy and building restrictions?

In Australia there is a long history of disputes with conservative shire councils over these types of cooperative farming / communal ventures. Plus in many cases banks won't lend against a share of the title, whatever the body corporate structure.

You need some kind of business structure, and I would try to do it without debt.

Would going into debt for a decent small (talking a few acres with solar, in a good growing area, bikable, with rail close) be warranted?

It depends on Everything, life and the Universe.

Are you young? Old? Do you have super non-discretionary skills (let's say petroleum geologists rank 1.0 and subprime or Alt-A brokers get a 0.0 :-)

Non-discretionary Job? Credit OK? Healthy?

If you have no savings try to change that first, before going for a ninja loan on a house (if you can even get one now, it's doubtful). Everything will be harder with bad credit.

I really like SacredCowTipper's approach to integrating into a community, it's what we did. And WestTexas' advice is prophetic and solid: get thee to the non-discretionary side of the equation.

Good luck!

NR

Yes thanks. The question is rhetorical and real ..
I don't fear the lack of solutions as much as what people will do when they have no clue as how to proceed.
To have considered some good alternatives along with all the 'givens' like age, health, finances will mean people will be less prone to take up the 'pilfer' side of the triangle and of course (no matter what good remedies we institute personally) it has to matter to us how many are 'forced' to take that path.

9:30 C

In politics there are no accidents-FDR paraphrased.

Crude Inventory down 7.6 million.

DC signing ceremony begins, televised on Bloomberg/CNBC

And here is another one, cited by a couple of weblogs- CR and SuddenDebt-

As I've noted-IMHO-the counterparties in these derivatives must remain solvent for the "game" to work, even as they try to bring us back to Status Quo Ante.

http://biz.yahoo.com/nytimes/071219/1194728062427.html?.v=3

"The demise of ACA would embarrass its roster of institutional owners, including Bear Stearns' Merchant Bank, hedge fund Perry Capital and the Third Avenue mutual-fund concern.

ACA has long been a convenient dumping ground in which major subprime securitizers like Bear Stearns (BSC), Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER) and some 25 other prominent dealers could pitch billions of dollars of risky obligations for modest premiums. That let them gussy up their balance sheets and shift any potential mark-to-market hits to ACA.

If ACA Capital were to founder, more than $69 billion worth of CDOs, including the $25 billion in subprime paper, would come rumbling back to the Wall Street banks, and likely with heavy attendant losses.

That's why Wall Street has continued to do a brisk business with the beleaguered firm. In the third quarter, ACA insured some $7 billion of subprime collateralized-debt obligations. Even if the company survives for only another couple of quarters, that would stave off the recognition of billions of dollars of losses.

For the time being."

This story about the problems of ACA looks like a big one. I see that S&P downgraded its rating from A to CCC for ACA, and also changed its outlook to negative for other bond insurers.

The WSJ also has an article.

Bear Sterns & Merrill are going to look at bailing out ACA. If ACA goes under, they might follow, so it is a matter of survival for them. However, it seems to me that if they don't have enough equity to survive if ACA goes under, they don't have enough to bail it out. I seem to remember something about sending "good money after bad." Of course, it is a leap of faith to say that this is "good money" that's going into the bailout.

I look at this situation each morning, ponder it a bit each day, and more and more it looks like a smoke screen that could be hiding that "black swan" we sometimes discuss.

There is a scramble on now to dodge responsibility and/or be the last man standing. We won't outlaw banks. Some of them will continue to operate, harmed or not, because we still want to make deposits, write checks, send/receive wire transfers, and use debit cards. Who are the unlucky winners?

What if the banks apply their political influence and drag the government into the whirlpool? Local, state, and federal is already a mess before taking one giant step back on revenues. We see the Fed (private, but bailouts courtesy of taxpayers, no?) offering up credit that doesn't get used. We see the municipalities offered the chance to get involved in the "mortgage boom" with tax free bonds. The banks don't take the Fed's bait, the municipalities don't take the banks' bait, so here we sit. Who cans drag us in? Taxpayers (about to lose their homes) who will back things that should not be done - a final hurrah for the Bush administraton, perhaps the crowning achievement in poor government.

I've been through one large public company bankruptcy and the parallels between the situations are many. We see the newly disempowered executives(bankers) still in their offices, making decisions that will never be implemented. We see employees(mortgage holders?) who, realizing the end is near, beginning to do things that would have averted the catastrophe had they commenced two years prior. Skeptical creditors (China, OPEC nations) begin to try to wiggle free from debt, not quite wanting to believe such a large entity is finished. Customers (mortgage writers to foreign investors) who depended on the products offered scramble to find alternatives.

The end game is ugly for a public company in liquidation. I recall being quite surprised at the number of twenty five year plus severance packages that showed up when I created the program to calculate such things for 4,000 employees. Some parts went here, some parts went there, but three hundred franchisees saw their balance sheets pillaged and their businesses slaughtered.

What happens when an empire is bankrupt? We know sovereign default in Argentina was Not Very Awesome(tm) for the residents. We know that the convulsions of the Ottoman empire, beginning around 1804, still echo today. The British were more graceful and more stately in their progression, aided by the miles between colonies.

Is the unwinding of the United States' empire going to parallel the British or the Ottoman decline? We're geographically isolated, like the British. We've lost our reserve currency (oil) just like the Ottomans saw their silver devalued by Spanish gold. We've got a vocal minority in the disloyal Christian Right who might very well go to terror and guerilla warfare in the face of a secular government, behaving a bit like Northern Ireland. We've gone from a volunteer(willing and drafted) army to one that was paid citizens and is now a 50/50 mix of citizens and mercenaries, at least in Iraq, paralleling almost exactly the descent of the Ottoman military.

The big picture is for the history books. The little guy won't be able to tell if we're coming apart like the Ottomans or coming apart like the British; FerFAL's chronicle of post collapse Argentina is the playbook on the ground for both modes of failure.

Food, then fuel, then ammunition, then community resources, and you had ought to be doing this in a place that actually has a community.

And do we have our own Ataturk rising now through the ranks of the US military -- or something worse?

We've got retired military officers suggesting its the constitutional duty of those still serving to arrest Bush, Cheney, etc. I like the sound of that, as long as its a nice, tidy process that returns us to the rule of the law.

We might have a member of the disloyal Christian Right rising, but can they actually pull off a coup? Our military has never had to face an illegitimate regime in control ... I'd say those who've been to Iraq, which is pretty much everyone ... at least twice ... will take a long, hard look at such a beast. Lets not forget they left a fairly good economy and they're coming home to an absolute disaster. Do you engage in the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing and expecting different results, or do you get back to the roots of what made the United States a superpower in the first place?

The USSR to Russia transition is also a possibility.

Note the frequency of replaced rulers as 1989
approached.

And all religions fade before power.

The CR label would only be just that.

http://www.247wallst.com/2007/07/aca-capital-dee.html

“It’s a zero-sum game,” he said, noting that the gains at the investment banks buying the protection have to eventually result in losses for the firms they hedged with. “If you put trades on that worked so well that you bankrupt your counterparty, you will not collect on those trades.”

Last week, the New York Stock Exchange delisted ACA Capital after its stock price had collapsed and the company declined to offer a plan to bring itself back into compliance with listing standards. The stock was trading at about 40 cents over the counter on Tuesday; it traded as high as $15 in the summer."

Bear Stearns is lying. Watch Merril-it's been pushing this
solvency crisis since July.

"the roots of what made the United States a superpower in the first place"

Access to unlimited natural resources, energy, and land, and the means and willingness to wipe out those already here? OK, we certainly were good at capitalizing on those advantages, but really, with all that land and undepleted soil, game, wood, coal, oil, water - how do you fail?

As for getting it back - I think it was a one-shot deal, and we shot.

Why do we need to be a superpower? All we really need is to live sustainably in peace on what is still very good land. We could still do it, but we're going to have to accept the fact that we are all going to be a lot poorer than we are right now.

I didn't imply we need to be a superpower, what I meant was that we used to be a nation that rested on the foundation of the rule of law, and such peoples are always industrious and responsible. We discovered the concept of something for nothing and now we have just that - nothing.

I agree entirely!

We shall see how many Tim McVeigh's come out of the New Iraq.

McVeigh was a boy scout compared to what some of those guys are going to do when they get back. The real injustice? Some people are born to snap, but those don't often qualify for the armed services. The ones who do those things will be perfectly normal men and women who were pushed beyond their limit and then held there far longer than history shows is good for combat troops, and then they get sent back without enough rest.

The British were more graceful and more stately in their progression, aided by the miles between colonies.

In Britain they haven't felt as much of the brunt but I argue that in some of the former British colonies, things aren't so great. Two examples: India and Pakistan have come to the brink of nuclear war and the area formerly known as Palestine is a never ending source of belligerence. Certainly all of these things are not completely due to the British collapse, but some of it is, especially the arbitrary borders that ignored ethnicities/resource division that were drawn as the British pulled out.

Mogambo is a tad more worried about inflation lately than usual.

Brave new Mogambo

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IL19Dj01.html

Lots of inflationary numbers tossed around.

But its the last line I like the best.

And there is nothing than can make you more brave in the face of this mess than having gold, silver, oil stocks and commodities of all kinds, as this inflationary disaster is just getting started. Although your panic about it should have started a long time ago!

Hard-hitting effects of oil prices

Some leading economists have been hinting recently that signs of stagflation are showing up in the USA and the European Union countries.

Morgan Stanley write-downs grow by $5.7 billion
China sovereign fund invests $5 billion; CEO Mack will forego a bonus

Morgan Stanley said Wednesday it's writing down an additional $5.7 billion of mortgage-related assets, taking the total fourth-quarter loss to nearly $10 billion in the latest sign that the credit crunch is worsening.

On another front, the Wall Street giant joined a string of rivals announcing investments from foreign governments as it unveiled an agreement with a Chinese sovereign fund that will inject $5 billion in fresh capital through equity units with mandatory conversion into common stock.

Helicopter Ben is firing up the choppers:

Fed to lend $20 billion to banks

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it was lending $20 billion to banks in the first of four special auctions designed to help alleviate the credit crunch on Wall Street.

The Fed said that it received requests for $61.6 billion in loans from 93 bidders - illustrating strong demand by banks who need short-term funds. The winning bidders will receive their loans, which will mature in 28 days, on Thursday.

Japan is keeping their helicopters grounded:

Japan banks will not support supbrime fund

Japan's top 3 banks plan to reject a request to help finance a U.S.-led subprime rescue fund, financial sources said.