The Oil Drum

Days Supply of Crude and Distillate is really getting hammered now, compared to last year's levels. Days Supply of Gasoline is slightly above now, last year's levels. My current focus is on US distillates, ULSD, and European GASOIL. The complex is getting back into position again to send oil above 100.00. Led, in my opinion, by global distillates.

Of course Wall Street still measures inventories on an Absolute basis. Upon virtually no other sector of the economy would you find M.B.A's applying non-relative metrics, but, the Street makes a special case for Oil. Of course, this explains why the Street missed the bull market in oil until it was well advanced, smirked at the single House that got the story right (Goldman) and still has in -house oil, oil company analysts, and economic strategists that emmbarass themselves every week on TV. One could pick any of them but Jason Schenker from Wachovia was notably laughable this Summer on prospects for the next 12 months. Lehman, on the whole, has been just a teensy bit less-bad, but has also been asleep at the wheel. Other notable clowns are at Bernstein, and Merrill too has provided me with much entertainment. Recently however, Fadel Gheit has been YouTube worthy.

The bottom line is this: the headline Wednesday numbers from EIA Washington, except for providing a 1-2 day trade, have had almost no part in the 7 year bull market. You would never get the story from the absolute numbers. Again, this is why the Street never saw it coming. They combined the "We are the world" mentality with no ability to understand global OECD inventories, or the notion of Days Supply.

As I have said before, I hope none of them ever wake from their slumber.

Gregor