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247 comments on DrumBeat: December 20, 2007

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westexas on December 20, 2007 - 10:40am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Re: Running hard just to stand still (Mexico)

In a document released in December setting out its strategy for the next five years, the energy ministry forecast that total oil production would decline to 2.5m b/d unless policies were reformed, and would remain roughly constant even if the industry were liberalised.

I am assuming that they are taling about total liquids. The 2006 EIA numbers are as follows:

Production: 3.7 mbpd
Consumption: 2.0
Net Exports: 1.7

So, they are suggesting net exports of 0.5 mbpd in five years, 2012, assuming flat consumption, which would be a net export decline rate of -20%/year. Note that Mexico is in the "red zone," i.e., consuming around 50% of production at peak. This resulted in the net exports from the UK and Indonesia crashing in seven and eight years respectively.

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beggar on December 20, 2007 - 12:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

westexas -- isn't a 20% decline in Mexico about what most of us have expected lately? I don't recall, but that is about what I thought they'd see.

Is this directly alluded to in the MSM?

At least there is some reference to this, but it is still clouded with numbers with no context and murky allusions to "oil nationalism" and the like as our only problem.

When all one has is the world's largest military, every problem looks like a war, I guess.

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westexas on December 20, 2007 - 2:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No real surprises, but IMO the key difference between Pemex and Saudi Aramco is that Pemex has admitted that its best production is watering out. As I said last year, IMO Cantarell and Ghawar are two warning beacons heralding the onset of Peak Oil.

BTW, I think that David Shields has projected a sharper production decline rate, making it likely that Mexico will approach zero net exports not too long after 2010.

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247 comments on DrumBeat: December 20, 2007

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