58 comments on A High-Risk Barrel
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58 comments on A High-Risk Barrel
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Great post. Are you a geologist?
You should post more often.
No, I work for the airforces. My friend is an oil geologist. But like another friend I have, one who studied half-a-medical degree ones he got cancer, you have to look up the facts yourself in the end. TOD is a good place to get bits of facts. But you have to follow them up and make up your own mind.
Internet alone is a poor source for such study. You have to get the basics from a few good library books. After that you have a more critical attitude to what's on the net. Of course it helps if you have a science background and are a professional in one field or two - it's much easier to learn another field quickly.
Recently I toyed with a computer simulation i wrote for reservour depletion. It was enlightening to see that no matter what you do, it's always a bell-shaped curve. And the more you force 'technology' into the equation the sooner you reach a peak (super straw effect) and the steeper is the fall at the other side. There is no way to 'cheat'.
But really I wish I was just an organic farmer.
Based on HL, Texas peaked at a later stage of depletion than did the overall Lower 48, and had a sharper post-peak decline rate (-4%/year, versus -2%/year).
And the crux of the argument that I have been making regarding Russia is that based on the mathematical model, the Russians have now "caught up" to where they should be, which suggests a potentially very sharp production decline rate.
But really I wish I was just an organic farmer.
If I can do it, anyone can (just be prepared to work):
Feed the soil with recycled plant matter. Mulch to keep water in. Know your plants. Use less petroleum by using more human labor, and learn the "home remedies" for pests.
Save seed. Harvest, eat, survive.
And please be careful of the superstitions around "organic" farming. The crackpots have destroyed the reputation of "organic" farming the way wax moths destroy a bee hive.
I'm searching for a new name for what I do. "Dirt farmer"? "Lo/cal, low carbon farmer"?
Organic farming has its own "bell curves" to deal with.Trust me on this.