134 comments on DrumBeat: December 24, 2007
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134 comments on DrumBeat: December 24, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
The following are the average annual price increases of crude and mogas per the EIA weekly Friday closings,
Using 53 weeks or the closest 371 days
2003 Crude up $04.9 @ $31.2 Mogas up 31 cents @ $1.560
2004 Crude up $10.3 @ $41.5 Mogas up 29 cents @ $1.850
2005 Crude up $14.3 @ $56.8 Mogas up 42 cents @ $2.270
2006 Crude up $09.2 @ $66.0 Mogas up 20 cents @ $257.0
2007 Crude up $06.9 @ $72.9 Mogas up 29 cents @ $2.805
2007 is projected using 3 future data points at $91.3 & $3.00
Looking at these increases holding a $95 avg for 08 would be a $23 increase and for gas 3 cents per $ would be a 69 cent increase to $3.50. IMO not likely.
my money says this indicates the peak in 2005, people expected BAU and oil did not cheapen, afterwards growth has been slowing down and next year we may expect to see an average ranging between 75-85 with the slowing world economy growth.
Note also that Aug/Sep 05 was the start of Corporate defaults
and committees set up with names like:
Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group II
NEW YORK, July 27, 2005 - The Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group today released its report entitled: "Toward Greater Financial Stability: A Private ...
www.crmpolicygroup.org/press-release.html - 7k
If we did peak in 2005 (which I agree seems likely for 'net exports' at least) then the world economy almost certainly can't grow whatever price the oil is!
...or how much paper/electronic "liquidity" is added to the system!!
Both you and xeroid are correct.
"...then the world economy almost certainly can't grow whatever price the oil is!"
and
"...paper/electronic "liquidity" is added to the system!!"
instead of "added", insert "monetized".
Like the declining Spanish Empire monetizing taxes out
100 years in order to secure immediate funding.
Same with oil. All value out to "x" years has
been monetized into $1000 trillion of derivatives.
All "energy" on the planet has been mortgaged.
"When the money flows into palaces or military or eating and then throwing up like in Ancient Rome, when it becomes empire building and not building a healthy social base, it 'dries up' rapidly. This is a harsh lesson. The British Empire, when it discovered the secrets of capitalism, proceeded to prevent any money flowing to the working class, they tried as hard as possible to prevent even 1% of the profits going to the workers! This nearly destroyed the British empire. The pathetic condition of the workers was so dire, they could barely fight off invaders. Germany was just as bad off until Bismark figured out that starving workers make lousy soldiers. So he created a social security system just so he could attack Britain."-ElaineSupkis
There can be no more "growth" now, because
we have no more FREE energy.
wrong, by making better use of oil gdp can rise, but only at the pace of technology improvements. (or coal/nuclear whatever power increases)