The Oil Drum

While I think you were extremely lucky not to lose this bet, I do think that the collective knowledge/understanding here is ahead of the market. As you point up, 12 to 1 odds at the beginning of the year in the market massively undershot the reality. Seemingly every medium/long term prediction that analysts in the market make appears to be proved wrong - while the consensus here gets much closer to the truth.

Which makes me wonder.

Running a site such as this costs money. Server, bandwidth, advertising, etc. eat a steady pile of cash. So why not put money where mouth is? Collect small stakes from a wide range of posters ($1-$5 type numbers) and invest it in the market using the 'wisdom of crowds' type approach to pick the best option - with the emphasis on seemingly high risk / high return options.

Not only does it provide a route for the site to gain some extra funds, it also makes a great story for the wider media. Historically oil analysts are doing no better than chance - it would aid credibility no end if the TOD prediction were shown to beat the analyst's viewpoint.