While I think you were extremely lucky not to lose this bet, I do think that the collective knowledge/understanding here is ahead of the market. As you point up, 12 to 1 odds at the beginning of the year in the market massively undershot the reality. Seemingly every medium/long term prediction that analysts in the market make appears to be proved wrong - while the consensus here gets much closer to the truth.

Which makes me wonder.

Running a site such as this costs money. Server, bandwidth, advertising, etc. eat a steady pile of cash. So why not put money where mouth is? Collect small stakes from a wide range of posters ($1-$5 type numbers) and invest it in the market using the 'wisdom of crowds' type approach to pick the best option - with the emphasis on seemingly high risk / high return options.

Not only does it provide a route for the site to gain some extra funds, it also makes a great story for the wider media. Historically oil analysts are doing no better than chance - it would aid credibility no end if the TOD prediction were shown to beat the analyst's viewpoint.

The market is completely clueless at identifying long term trends in oil and always has been. Read this article by Simmons. http://www.worldoil.com/magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2793&MONTH_Y... There's nothing different going on today.